How accurate are our probabilities?

Our whole approach rests on one thing: when we say a horse has a 30% chance, it should win about 30% of the time. Here's the proof, measured against real results, published openly.

↑ Close to reality

±0.5pp

average gap between predicted and actual

Across 41,351 runners the model has assessed, its predicted win probabilities land within 0.5 percentage points of what actually happened, on average.

Close to reality: across 41,351 runners, our chances land within 0.5 points of what happened on average. Our highest ratings (35%+) run about 3 points high, and we show that below.

Predicted chance vs actual win rate

Every horse the model assigns a probability to, grouped by predicted chance, compared to how often those horses actually won. The closer "Actual" is to "Predicted", the more trustworthy the number.

Predicted Chance	Predicted Avg	Actual Win Rate	Difference	Runners
0–5%	3.3%	3.9%	+0.6pp	9774
5–10%	7.3%	7.5%	+0.2pp	14588
10–15%	12.2%	12.4%	+0.2pp	8095
15–20%	17.2%	17.7%	+0.5pp	3762
20–25%	22.3%	23.5%	+1.2pp	2023
25–30%	27.4%	27.5%	+0.1pp	1083
30–35%	32.5%	31.1%	-1.4pp	877
35%+	42.5%	39.5%	-3.0pp	1149

pp = percentage points. Green = within 3pp · Amber = within 7pp · Red = needs attention. Based on 41,351 runners across 137 racing days, since 10 Jun 2026.

Accuracy by race type

Whether the probabilities hold up across different kinds of race. Predicted is the model's average chance; actual is how often those horses won.

Flat Handicap

Predicted10.6%

Actual10.4%

Difference -0.2pp

20746 runners · see the races →

Novice / Maiden

Predicted11.6%

Actual12.0%

Difference +0.5pp

8868 runners · see the races →

Jump Handicap

Predicted11.0%

Actual12.6%

Difference +1.5pp

4910 runners · see the races →

Other

Predicted11.4%

Actual11.9%

Difference +0.4pp

4900 runners · see the races →

Group

Predicted11.6%

Actual11.7%

Difference +0.1pp

1127 runners · see the races →

Listed

Predicted11.3%

Actual11.1%

Difference -0.2pp

800 runners · see the races →

Flat Handicap. The races behind the number

Every runner's predicted chance and how it finished, the 200 most recent of 20746. Across all 20746: predicted 10.6%, actual 10.4%.

Date	Race	Horse	Model chance	Result
24 Oct	Southwell 20:30	PAPA DONT PREACH	3%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	PRINCIPALITY	5%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	CROWN OFFICE	39%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	SALAM DUBAWI	12%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	BEALE STREET	8%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	CARGIN BHUI	7%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	CEO STEALTH MODE	6%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	QUEST FOR FUN	6%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	GOLDEN PHARAOH	6%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	COTAI BELLE	6%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	IT JUST TAKES TIME	6%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	TERRITORIAL KNIGHT	5%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	ZARVALI	5%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	SPY KINGDOM	3%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	TRUST AMY	3%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	PROSPERITAS	37%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	FREDDIE STEADY GO	12%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	STANAGE	10%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	GOLD QUEEN KINDLY	8%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	FEEL THE NEED	7%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	INVINCIBLE BOY	7%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	KINGS SCHOOL	6%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	ITSATENFROMLEN	5%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	MAGIC BOY	5%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	SPIRIT GENIE	4%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	TOLSTOY	4%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	HIGHLAND OLLY	3%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:00	BONA FORTUNA	36%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:00	RHYTHM N HOOVES	11%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	PEARL EYE	3%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	DEVILS PEAK	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:00	BETSEN	7%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	HAVE SECRET	5%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 12:55	AL SHABAB STORM	28%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Doncaster 12:55	KING OF LIGHT	18%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 12:55	ROSARIO	15%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 12:55	ANCIENT STATE	9%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 12:55	MILFORD	9%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 12:55	SOVEREIGN SPELL	8%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 12:55	BOSTON DAN	6%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 12:55	LUNA A INBHIR NIS	6%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 12:55	SCHRODINGERS CAT	5%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 12:55	ETERNAL SUNSHINE	4%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:19	ANYASI	32%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:19	DESPERATE DAN	11%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:19	LIR SPECIALE	10%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:19	MONOCEROS	9%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:19	RIVER KING	9%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:19	MR PROFESSOR	8%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:19	ON THE RIVER	7%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:19	SHIPBOURNE	7%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:19	ANDESITE	5%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:19	CAVOLO NERO	5%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	CASTLEMONT	21%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	SHAFDAR	19%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	GALYX	19%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	ULTRASOUL	11%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	A MAJOR PAYNE	7%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	BUNYOLA BAY	7%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	CITY OF DELIGHT	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:00	ALMATY STAR	7%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	JANEY MACKERS	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:00	ALONDRA	7%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:00	LOVE YOU MORE	4%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:00	ROGUE DESIRE	4%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:00	GRAND CITADEL	3%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:00	KNIGHTMARE	2%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	ANTHROPOLOGIST	28%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	CAPTAIN PARMA	12%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	FINN IRONSIDE	10%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	ESPANITA	7%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	AKABUSI	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	GLADIADORA	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	FLASH RASCAL	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	RED HAT EAGLE	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	PACKETOFBISCUITS	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	SHAW PARK	4%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	SANTIAGO BOY	4%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	JANORA	3%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	RIBBLE EMPEROR	3%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:30	AGE OF TIME	29%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:30	EDMOND HALLEY	13%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Southwell 20:30	MOUNT RUAPEHU	11%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:30	DUE DATE	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:30	HAVANA JOY	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:30	MEHMAR	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:30	HES AN ANGEL	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:30	PIPERSTOWN	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:30	UNCLE SAM	4%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:30	DR ALI	3%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:00	KANISHKA	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:00	OSCARS SISTER	4%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:30	PISCEAN STAR	4%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	WYVILL	15%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	HIGHLAND HARVEY	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:00	GLAMOROUS BREEZE	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:00	CAPTAIN CORELLI	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:00	MOULIN BOOJ	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:00	HENRYTHENATE	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:00	SHES GOT A BROTHER	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:00	NIGHT STORM	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:00	SUGAR HILL BABE	3%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	SPIRIT OF NATURE	31%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	MASEGO	13%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	MISS VERONIKA	10%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	ALKAIOS	7%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	HICKTON	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	CLIPSHAM NOBLE	6%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	HAVACHOC	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:00	AFRICAN SPIRIT	10%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:00	CROWN THE FUTURE	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	LEDNIKOV	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	NYMPHAEA	4%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	FIGHTING POET	3%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	RAYSHAM	3%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 17:30	THE ORMER GATHERER	2%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:00	KEV	11%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:00	LILI MARLEEN	10%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Southwell 19:00	AL SUIL EILE	8%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:00	BLUE SAMUNA	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 19:00	DUMFRIES	5%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	JELLYSTONE PARK	5%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	ORIENTAL PRINCE	5%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	MYTHICAL PHOENIX	3%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	KODIAC THRILLER	5%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	FRENCH AFFAIR	7%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	ARCHDUKE FERDINAND	4%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	GO VINCE GO	6%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	PERSIAN FLAW	2%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	WOBWOBWOB	8%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	NEVER JUST A DREAM	9%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	INTENSE VISION	15%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:05	ANGEL GABRIEL	31%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	ABERAMA GOLD	3%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	FANS FAVOURITE	11%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	WOVEN	4%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	MAYAADA	18%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	REVEUR	2%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	UNCHARTEDTERRITORY	10%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	BLUE WONDER	8%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	DRYBURGH	7%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	GEO	6%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	KOKANEE	6%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	YOU SEXY THING	6%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	NORTH BEACH	4%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	DRAUPNIR	3%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	GHOST STORY	3%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	KINROSS CLARET	3%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	NAPLES	2%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	NATURALIA	2%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	YERMANTHERE	2%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	RIKKI TIKI TAVI	5%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	STAR MATERIAL	5%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	CITY CAPTAIN	9%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	CHARLIE MASON	6%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	FIRST TIME	8%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 16:25	BATTLE STANDARD	29%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	FINE INTERVIEW	27%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	ADVERTISED	15%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	FAHRENHEIT SEVEN	8%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	GOLDEN MIND	7%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	KODI LION	7%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	PILU	7%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	TOYOTOMI	6%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	STATION X	6%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	BRIGHTON BOY	4%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	GOLDMOYNE	4%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	DARK THIRTY	3%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	LAKERS	3%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	MUSICAL TOUCH	3%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:10	ROUSING ENCORE	3%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:45	PALLADAS	22%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:45	ELLUSIVE BUTTERFLY	10%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:45	INISHBEG	10%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:45	INVICTUS GOLD	8%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:45	POWER FIZZ	8%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:45	U SURE DO	7%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:45	ZOUM ZOUM	7%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:45	EGOLI	5%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 14:45	REDEMPTION ROAD	5%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	BIG HARRY	29%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	TOPWARRIOR	16%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	ART LOVER	9%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	ALPHA MAGIC	9%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	BONE MARRA	8%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 17:35	COTSWOLD COTTAGE	1%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 16:30	STIRRUP CUP	4%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 16:25	BALLYBUNION	12%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 20:00	QUEUE DOS	12%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 19:00	DR RIO	5%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 19:00	PORT NOIR	3%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 19:30	HAUTELUCE	37%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 19:30	WARRIOR MODE	12%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 19:30	ARCADIAN NIGHTS	8%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 19:30	CANVAS	7%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 19:30	CRISTO	6%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 19:30	EPICTETUS	6%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 19:30	RASTNET	6%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 19:30	FIRST AMBITION	5%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 19:30	TIGER	5%	,

Novice / Maiden. The races behind the number

Every runner's predicted chance and how it finished, the 200 most recent of 8868. Across all 8868: predicted 11.6%, actual 12.0%.

Date	Race	Horse	Model chance	Result
25 Oct	Wexford 15:40	WHELKEEN VIEW	2%	,
25 Oct	Galway 15:56	BULGADEN CASTLE	25%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:00	MILITARY CROSS	13%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:00	MOORE BRION	19%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:00	KALDOUN DES ROCS	24%	,
25 Oct	Galway 15:56	TULLASCOPE	2%	,
25 Oct	Galway 15:56	LONG STORY	2%	,
25 Oct	Galway 15:56	FERGY FIVE	2%	,
25 Oct	Galway 15:56	ALWAYS SCORING	4%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Galway 15:56	KILTINAN	4%	,
25 Oct	Galway 15:56	SURESURESURE	7%	,
25 Oct	Galway 15:56	REBEL REBA	8%	,
25 Oct	Galway 15:56	DOCTOR ELVIS	23%	,
25 Oct	Galway 15:20	TRADONTHEBAY	4%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:00	RUNNING HAPPY	9%	,
25 Oct	Galway 15:20	OLE OLE	8%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Galway 15:20	BROTHER WALFRID	7%	,
25 Oct	Galway 15:20	FLY AWAY HOME	12%	,
25 Oct	Galway 15:20	HARPY EAGLE	20%	,
25 Oct	Galway 14:17	THE TWO MARYS	4%	,
25 Oct	Galway 14:17	ESTEIO	5%	,
25 Oct	Galway 14:17	ELITE OCEAN	5%	,
25 Oct	Galway 14:17	HOLLYS THUNDER	8%	,
25 Oct	Galway 14:17	SIMPLY NATURAL	14%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Galway 14:17	SANCTITY OF SPACE	13%	,
25 Oct	Galway 14:17	LIGHT UP THE DARK	35%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:00	MAGS OCEAN	10%	,
25 Oct	Galway 15:56	BOIS DANGOS	11%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:00	LADY BAM	7%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 14:35	GREY BALLS OF FIRE	3%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:00	SILVER SALVER	4%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:40	WELL FRIEND	3%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:40	REILLYS POCKET	3%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:40	PARISIAN DREAM	4%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:40	COFFEEMORNINGGIRLS	5%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:40	BALLYHOURA	5%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:40	MISTEROUS FLECHOIS	6%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:40	EL BILO	14%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Wexford 14:35	ORCHARD CROSS	1%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 14:35	LUN DEUX TROIS	2%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 14:35	KATOOMBA	2%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 14:35	OYSTER COTTAGE	3%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:40	VANGO AT DAWN	3%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 14:35	JETAWAY MOUNTAIN	4%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 14:35	LIRAKALI	18%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:00	ACTION REPLAY	4%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:00	SKIBIDIRIZZ	4%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:00	EQUI LIBRE	3%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 14:35	SOUL ASYLUM	17%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:00	MIO AMICO	2%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 14:35	FARNEY BRIDGE	16%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 14:35	LLEMS	11%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 14:35	GAME SHADOW	9%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 14:35	JESSBERS WISH	7%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 13:37	ROYAL MARCH	21%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:05	CATCHINTSAVO	22%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:05	DERRYHASSEN PADDY	16%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:05	FOLLOW YOUR LUCK	15%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:05	KASINO DES MOTTES	8%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 13:37	CAPE WARRIOR	44%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 14:10	MALAYALAM	13%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 13:37	EAZY BREEZY	12%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 13:37	TRESHNISH POINT	12%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 13:37	JESSMARVEL	11%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Kelso 13:37	OOR WISH	7%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 13:45	LANDSBOROUGH	7%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:05	BUTCH CASSIDY	32%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Cheltenham 13:45	ROAD TO WEMBLEY	55%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 13:45	WOODSTOCK OCTO	9%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Cheltenham 13:45	CAPTAIN CONNOR	10%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 13:45	KASHCHEI	16%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 13:45	NEWBROOK DIAMOND	24%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 14:10	WEARELONGTERM	9%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Cheltenham 13:10	SONY BILL	3%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 13:10	OMOORE PARK	6%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Cheltenham 13:10	BALLYKINLAR	6%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 13:10	SOGNA IN GRANDE	8%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 13:10	DE TEMPS EN TEMPS	10%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 13:10	AS LEGENDS HAVE IT	12%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 13:10	ROCKONLIAM	24%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 14:10	REALISATION	12%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:30	OLDBULLYOUNGBULL	9%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:00	RING OF MUSIC	33%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:30	JEBAYLI	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:00	JEEPERS FORTUNE	10%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:00	SIGMA	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:00	WORLD STAR	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:00	HUNSTANTON	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:00	THE HONEY THIEF	8%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:00	AL ARRAAB	9%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Southwell 20:00	FLICK OF AN EYE	13%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:30	YELLOW VISION	4%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:30	STELLAR MAX	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:30	SAXON LAW	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:30	HALDON FIRE	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:30	KINGS MEDAL	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 20:00	CRYSTAL DARK	44%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:30	CHAMPAGNE POETRY	7%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:00	STEEL NATION	5%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:00	CHERTSEY	8%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:00	NATIONAL ANTHEM	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:00	NAVAL EMPIRE	6%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:00	NIGHT MILE	5%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Southwell 18:00	POLITICAL RESIDENT	10%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:00	QUITE SIMPLE	4%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:00	SPLINTERED	4%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 18:30	GEOMETRY	21%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Southwell 18:30	GOLDEN EAGLE	11%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	ENTRUST	8%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:20	MACHAALLAH	8%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:20	SNOW CARNIVAL	7%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:20	HARLEQUIN DREAM	5%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	AGE OF REASON	14%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	ZAJAL	11%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	MANITOBA	9%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	SEAGOING	7%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	WELLINGTON SQUARE	8%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:20	FORTIS FORTUNA	8%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	LAUREL CROWN	7%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	ASTON BAY	6%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	SILVER BAY	4%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:55	VALLEJO	5%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:20	SKYGLOW	8%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:50	JARRIVE DE MEE	26%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:20	FLORAL	11%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:20	DESERT ROMANCE	48%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:10	SAINT INVICTUS	6%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:10	OTIES FRIEND	7%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:10	MISTER COKO	8%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:10	KINGSTONIAN	16%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:10	DATSTHEHOLYALLOFIT	23%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:10	COSMOS DAINAY	25%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:10	MR HOLLYWOOD	36%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:50	GLEN TO GLEN	10%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:50	PASSING DIAMOND	12%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:50	ICE JET	13%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:50	BOWENSONFIRE	55%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Sligo 12:50	BABY PEARL	16%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 12:50	RONNIES RASCAL	24%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 15:20	TENSHI	7%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 12:50	LOOK AT YOU	12%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:10	THEBOSSSDAUGHTER	3%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 17:30	TALORA	2%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 17:30	KAMEO ROLL	4%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 17:30	LADY PERDITA	4%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 17:30	PARISIENNE LOVE	4%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 17:30	GOOD MAGIC MOMENT	4%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 17:30	ACRACKINTIME	5%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 17:30	FAROUCHE	9%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 17:30	JAHAMI	21%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 16:20	LEADING ROSE	6%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 16:20	COLOSSAL IMPACT	8%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 16:20	UNION STATION	10%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 16:20	REMEMBERWHAT	11%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Sligo 16:20	FUUSLAND	21%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 17:30	WISHFUL THINKER	11%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:10	BALDILOU	3%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 12:50	EVERIN DREAM	2%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:10	TONIGHTSAGOODNIGHT	4%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Sligo 12:50	REPONSE FINALE	8%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 12:50	CASHELDALE LASS	7%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 12:50	FAERIE TALES	6%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 12:50	MYSTIC ROSE	6%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Sligo 12:50	GRATITUDEFORGRACE	4%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 12:50	RAILWAYVIEW LADY	9%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 12:50	RAGSTORICHES	2%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:10	LA MULETA	24%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:10	GUNNERY SERGEANT	17%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:10	BEEVERSTOWN BOY	10%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:10	MONARD FLYER	5%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:21	BEYOND FORGIVENESS	7%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 14:46	CALA GRACIONETA	5%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 14:46	SENORITA DIANA	3%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:21	BOBBY KIROVA	20%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:21	MARKET READY	19%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:21	PRIVATE POLICY	17%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:21	SILLY MONGOOSE	13%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:21	SOLDIER SAINT	4%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:21	BLUE JOHNL	7%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:21	CHEMDAWG	5%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 14:46	WEAPONIZED	7%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:21	MOTHER SHIP	3%	✓ Won
22 Oct	Ffos Las 14:01	THE WALK	25%	✓ Won
22 Oct	Ffos Las 14:01	NAVARAU	10%	,
22 Oct	Ffos Las 14:01	OATSOEASY	8%	,
22 Oct	Ffos Las 14:01	TYRRHENUS	10%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 13:35	WORLD AS ONE	15%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 14:46	SHADONAGH	7%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 14:46	BAYSWATER BLOOM	8%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 13:35	DETROIT MAVERICK	25%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 13:35	ROND POINT	17%	,
22 Oct	Ffos Las 14:01	BRISKY DANCER	6%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 13:35	CITY OF CORK	13%	✓ Won
22 Oct	Clonmel 13:35	DDAKJI	9%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 13:35	OZARK DAZE	8%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 13:35	MINELLA MAVERICK	5%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 13:35	BALLYTEIGUE BAY	4%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 13:35	GEORGE DUNDEE	4%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 13:35	LITTLE AN OFTEN	3%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 13:35	THE YELLOW CAPRI	2%	,

Jump Handicap. The races behind the number

Every runner's predicted chance and how it finished, the 200 most recent of 4910. Across all 4910: predicted 11.0%, actual 12.6%.

Date	Race	Horse	Model chance	Result
25 Oct	Wexford 15:07	CLUB MANAGER	4%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:42	LEAVE IN SECRET	6%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 14:10	TOMMYS OSCAR	25%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 14:10	SURE TOUCH	25%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 14:10	TRIPLE TRADE	26%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Galway 14:50	JUST FOR ONE	6%	,
25 Oct	Galway 14:50	HESGONETHATWAY	7%	,
25 Oct	Galway 14:50	ROCKBROOK	8%	,
25 Oct	Galway 14:50	SHELLRUNFORBRIGGS	14%	,
25 Oct	Galway 14:50	BLUE TRAIN	12%	,
25 Oct	Galway 14:50	SPACE WARRIOR	10%	,
25 Oct	Galway 14:50	CASTLEHEATH	14%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Galway 13:42	CLONBURY BRIDGE	3%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:42	MOUNT FRISCO	3%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:42	LENIS LAW	4%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:42	ALONG THE WAY	4%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:42	PICCOLO PLAYER	6%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 14:10	GA LAW	12%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:42	DONTCAVEIN	5%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:42	DEARG MOR	5%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:42	BIGBRAVEBOY	6%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:42	SPRINGBOARD	9%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:42	LANZHOU	11%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Galway 13:42	PRINCE PALACE	10%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:07	ONE LAST TANGO	3%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:07	TALK IN THE PARK	6%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:07	JUPITER DU GITE	6%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:07	NINE GRACES	8%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:07	ILLTAKEHIMMYSELF	9%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Galway 13:07	FOLLY MASTER	11%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:07	ONLY FOR OUR MAN	16%	,
25 Oct	Galway 13:07	DGALWAYGALLIVANTOR	13%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 14:10	MARS HARPER	12%	,
25 Oct	Galway 14:50	INTHENICKOFTIME	23%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 14:41	PAPER MILL	39%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Wexford 13:25	LUIMNEACH	18%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:07	QAASID	3%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:07	JAY JAY ZEE	4%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:07	PRINCE INGER	3%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 14:41	RIVERS CORNER	24%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:07	RATHBAWN SOLDIER	10%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:07	CHOSEN SHANT	9%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:07	JUMBOS JET	17%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:07	CATHRYNS RUBY	11%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Wexford 13:25	SCALPNAGOON	5%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Wexford 13:25	I AM LORENZO	5%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 13:25	MISS DOYENNE	8%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 13:25	DUFFYS HODEY	5%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 13:25	KOBALT ST GEORGES	7%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 13:25	WATCH THE WEATHER	13%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 15:07	CROWSATEDAPPLETART	7%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 13:25	FOUNTAIN HOUSE	18%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 15:13	GAMBIE TIEP	7%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 13:25	THE GREAT NUDIE	15%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 14:41	LIVIN ON LUCO	21%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 15:13	NOBLE RECALL	45%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 15:13	WALK IN THE VALLEY	23%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Market Rasen 15:13	MCGRATH FROM CLUNE	12%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 15:13	WALKINTHEWOODS	12%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 14:41	THE DOYEN CHIEF	17%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 15:48	LIGHTNING FLASH	30%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Market Rasen 15:48	JUSTUS	13%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 15:48	KOUROSH	10%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 15:48	CHARACTER TESTING	19%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 15:48	KLAPTON BOY	9%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:55	UNCLE BERT	35%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	BOLD ENDEAVOUR	2%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	DIVILABOTHER	2%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	HANG IN THERE	1%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	NO MORE BOLERO	1%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:55	KATATE DORI	12%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:55	HERE COMES GEORGIE	21%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:55	DIAMOND DEALER	9%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:55	MOON DORANGE	8%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	LIHYAN	3%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:55	KARNAVAL POINT	7%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	LOVE OF NEYMORE	3%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	CHAMPAGNE CHIC	5%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	KITTY FOYLE	3%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	GRANNS BOY	3%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	IDAHO FIRE	4%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	GOWEL ROAD	4%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	GOLD FOR ALEC	4%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	BLIZZARD OF OZ	5%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	MOON ROCKET	8%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	ACE OF SPADES	8%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	THANK YOU MAAM	9%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	LUCKY BERE	10%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 14:20	SEANIECON	19%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Kelso 14:44	ACHILLE DES ROCS	21%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 14:44	BALLYFORT	38%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 16:25	THE OTHER MOZZIE	10%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 14:44	GARDE DES CHAMPS	15%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 16:25	NEWTOWN RAMBLER	24%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Kelso 14:44	TREATY BOY	11%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Kelso 16:55	PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL	5%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 16:55	BURGUNDY MAN	5%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 16:55	MAILLOT BLANC	7%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 16:55	BERWICK LAW	7%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 16:55	EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN	11%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 16:55	LETS MINGLE	13%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Kelso 16:55	BOLD LIGHT	23%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 16:55	SUMMERGROUNDS	34%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 16:25	FROM THE CLOUDS	12%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 16:55	EBSELYSEES	8%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 16:25	SMOKE TRAIL	37%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 15:14	TRAVIS WHEATLEY	9%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 15:14	ASHDOWN FOREST	30%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 15:50	MUSKERRY ROCK	12%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 15:14	TWO AULD PALS	25%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 15:14	SCOTS POET	15%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Kelso 15:14	HEART ABOVE	12%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 15:14	BOSTON JURY	5%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 15:50	MYRETOWN	44%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Kelso 15:50	NEW ORDER	28%	,
24 Oct	Kelso 15:50	MUMFORDS MAGIC	16%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 14:25	KING ULANDA	4%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:35	SKY LORD	6%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 14:25	FILS DE ROI	3%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:35	JPR ONE	31%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:35	CALICO	18%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 14:25	THANKYOUANDPLEASE	4%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:35	TRAPRAIN LAW	15%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:35	PALACIO	10%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:00	BELLA UNION	10%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:35	SOUL ICON	4%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:00	PRALOGNAN	24%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:00	JURALITY	13%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:00	JUMBLE LIGHT	10%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:00	KATE KNOWS BEST	9%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 14:25	MOJITO DES MOTTES	6%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:00	OCEAN OF DREAMS	7%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Cheltenham 14:25	LORIKO	5%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:15	LA PINSONNIERE	7%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 14:25	FIVEONEFIVE	7%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:15	CAN HAPPEN	5%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:00	SOLAR GENERATION	5%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:15	SUNNY SOUTH WEST	31%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:15	JOHN BARBOUR	15%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:15	FRONTIER PRINCE	11%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:15	MORNING MAYHEM	10%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:15	AL GASPARO	5%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:15	CLOONAINRA	4%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 14:25	CONTINUANCE	9%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:15	EAST INDIA EXPRESS	4%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 13:15	CROOKED PATH	4%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 14:25	THE HARDEST GEEZER	26%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 14:25	WILD GOOSE	14%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 14:25	KAPITEIN KOOL	12%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 14:25	WONDERING WHY	11%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:00	YOU LIFT ME UP	7%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:00	BEAT THE DEVIL	3%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:00	HOME BY THE SEA	4%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 16:55	SPANISH JOHN	10%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:45	DARK BERKSHIRE	8%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:45	MANE ATTRACTION	7%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:45	LARIAT	4%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:45	YOU MAKE ME SMILE	3%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Sligo 15:45	CLONBURY COURT	3%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 16:55	MICKEY COHEN	24%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 16:55	BROKEN ICE	7%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:45	LARKINS LANE	15%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 16:55	FIZZLE ROCK	6%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 16:55	KEVINS PRIDE	6%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 16:55	STRONG CONTENDER	6%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 16:55	JOHNNY CAKES	4%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 16:55	MOORISH CASTLE	3%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Sligo 14:00	TOMMY GO MAITH	4%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:45	BUT WHAT ABOUT ME	9%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 16:55	BOSTON RAJJ	8%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:45	GOIN	21%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:35	THE FLYING RAMBLER	9%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 15:45	DIADUIT BUACHAILL	21%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:00	TORQUE DE LUNE	3%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:35	BOWGATE STREET	20%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:35	ANDYOURBIRDCANSING	13%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:35	OH SO CHARMING	11%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:35	GRENNANSTOWN LADY	10%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:35	ATLANTIC WONDER	12%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:35	FINNIANS ROW	6%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Sligo 14:35	LILAC LADY	5%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:35	MAXIOS LADY	5%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:35	PLUS OR MINUS	4%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:35	HOMETOMAYO	4%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 14:35	LETTERS TO JULIET	2%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 15:37	DROP KICK	32%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 15:37	JACK DEMPSEY	3%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 15:37	GETAWAY MASTER	16%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 15:37	IS SHE NOW	9%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 15:37	ROYAL RHYTHM	9%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 15:37	DUSKY DAYS	7%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 15:37	FOUROFAKIND	6%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 15:37	KNOCKERANNA ROSE	6%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 15:37	ORDER ANOTHER ONE	4%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 15:37	VANILLA DANCER	4%	✓ Won
22 Oct	Clonmel 14:10	LAKE CHAD	14%	✓ Won
22 Oct	Carlisle 16:45	HELLO JUDGE	46%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 16:45	DEARKEITHANDKATY	26%	✓ Won
22 Oct	Carlisle 16:45	GLORY AND HONOUR	19%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 16:45	OLD GREGORIAN	13%	,

Other. The races behind the number

Every runner's predicted chance and how it finished, the 200 most recent of 4900. Across all 4900: predicted 11.4%, actual 11.9%.

Date	Race	Horse	Model chance	Result
25 Oct	Wexford 16:40	BETTER BE ELUSIVE	4%	,
25 Oct	Galway 16:30	VA LA VIE	8%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 12:50	LONG BRANCH	16%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 16:23	SOVIET SAILOR	14%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Market Rasen 16:23	EZENLI	16%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 16:23	CLOS DU MOUCHE	31%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:35	CONTEMPLATION	9%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:35	ELM CREEK	13%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:35	DON DANDY	18%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 13:35	MINELLA BUOY	31%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Galway 16:30	BLUEBELL BREEZE	8%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Galway 16:30	NOLANS FAIR DAY	8%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 12:50	KIR	10%	,
25 Oct	Galway 16:30	MOSCOVITE	9%	,
25 Oct	Galway 16:30	LITTLEBEEN	21%	,
25 Oct	Galway 16:30	MOZARTS SONG	29%	,
25 Oct	Galway 12:32	SURVIVORS SISTER	7%	,
25 Oct	Galway 12:32	LENGARUKA	12%	,
25 Oct	Galway 12:32	WILL DO	17%	,
25 Oct	Galway 12:32	MINT BOY	11%	,
25 Oct	Galway 12:32	DA CAPO GLORY	21%	,
25 Oct	Galway 12:32	CHART TOPPER	33%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Wexford 12:50	CAHER ROES DEN	16%	,
25 Oct	Market Rasen 16:23	BEAU DE MAINE	18%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 12:50	CHASE THE MOON	8%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 16:10	DROMANA MIST	17%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Wexford 16:40	SOCRATES SMILED	6%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Wexford 16:40	LAKE PIPPAWAY	7%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 16:40	B U TRAIN	7%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 16:40	LEST YE FORGET	9%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 16:40	CERTAVI ET VICI	16%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 12:50	MULLAGHGLOSS	8%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 16:10	DIAMOND TIPP	6%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 16:10	SOMERSBY ROOST	10%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 16:10	MISS MINI BEE	7%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 16:10	LOUVE DIRLANDE	9%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 16:40	PAYSLIP	23%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 16:10	BAYMOUNT	24%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 14:00	HANSEL THE PURSE	12%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 14:00	THE TWO DEGREES	15%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Wexford 14:00	TOLL ROAD	18%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 12:50	KING IN LOVE	2%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 12:50	KELYA	3%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 12:50	LISNAGAR FORTUNE	4%	,
25 Oct	Wexford 12:50	PATS LEGACY	6%	✓ Won
25 Oct	Wexford 16:10	DUNSY ROCK	26%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 15:30	TUNISYA	8%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:40	BALLYCRYSTAL BOY	6%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:40	DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR	12%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:40	PORT ISAAC	14%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:40	TYTHINGMAN	19%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 15:30	INDIAN RIVER	23%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 15:30	ONE HORSE TOWN	10%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 15:30	LORD BYRON	10%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 15:30	LA LUNA ARTISTA	12%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 15:30	IN THE MINUS	12%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:40	ASK MILLIE	4%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:40	MILORD DANJOU	5%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 15:30	NORTH SHORE	34%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:40	CASK OF PIMLICO	4%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 14:40	ROCK STEADY BEAT	12%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:40	DENNISS HONOR	4%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 16:24	UNDERCOVER AFFAIR	11%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Southwell 16:24	SPACE DREAMER	13%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 16:24	BILL THE BULL	45%	,
24 Oct	Southwell 16:24	BLAKES MONARCH	23%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 14:40	SHADOW KING	13%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 14:40	SCIENZA	36%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Doncaster 14:40	NATIONAL HONOUR	38%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:40	LITTLEBOBBYDAZZLER	3%	,
24 Oct	Cheltenham 16:40	FREETOBE	3%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:45	MY GIFT TO YOU	4%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 13:35	FURTURRA	8%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 13:35	LAKE MURITZ	10%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 13:35	BIG CIGAR	11%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 13:35	GLAMORIZE	19%	,
23 Oct	Doncaster 13:35	BULLETSNAP	22%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Doncaster 13:35	MIND THOSE STEPS	36%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:45	LITTLE LEDGEND	17%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:45	JUPITER DES BORDES	4%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:45	SNIPE	7%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:45	BRANDT	11%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:45	BETTER OFF ALONE	14%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 13:25	SPEISIALTA	21%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:45	FAIRLAWN SKIPPER	18%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:45	UNANSWERED PRAYERS	20%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 13:25	PUPPET MASTER	37%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 16:45	YOUDECIDE	13%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 13:25	COMBS	19%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 18:00	FROM ME TO YOU	9%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Sligo 13:25	FRIARY ROAD	17%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 18:00	WEST TO REST	3%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 18:00	MYSTIC UNICORN	3%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 18:00	CYDNEY SWEENIE	3%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 18:00	TIME AND EFFORT	4%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 18:00	MUBEHIR	5%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 18:00	HOLLIESTHEDOLLIE	4%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 18:00	MISTRAL MADNESS	10%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 18:00	STONEY WOOD	10%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 18:00	LAST DANDELION	11%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 18:00	MAXIMUS MERIDIUS	14%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 18:00	ARD AS A ROCK	15%	,
23 Oct	Wolverhampton 18:00	FALAH GLORY	19%	,
23 Oct	Sligo 13:25	CRYSTABEL	10%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:56	SAYITFIRST	11%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 17:20	PONY EXPRESS	29%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 17:20	CRYSTAL SPECTRE	14%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 17:20	JUNIOR MINISTER	13%	✓ Won
22 Oct	Carlisle 17:20	MALIKO DES PINS	12%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 17:20	MIDNIGHT JURY	11%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:56	BYNX	14%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:56	LITTLEBIGGIE	12%	,
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:56	LA NOTE VERTE	45%	✓ Won
22 Oct	Clonmel 15:56	AD CAELUM	9%	,
22 Oct	Ffos Las 15:11	WILLOW TIDE	14%	,
22 Oct	Ffos Las 15:11	MIGHTY RHYTHM	14%	,
22 Oct	Ffos Las 15:11	ASHFORD BREEZE	11%	,
22 Oct	Ffos Las 15:11	JET BAY	10%	,
22 Oct	Ffos Las 15:11	POINTOFDIFFERENCE	8%	✓ Won
22 Oct	Ffos Las 15:11	POETS EXPRESS	19%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 15:35	GIRL SCOUT	20%	,
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	BOYSOFWALLSTREET	3%	,
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	SOVEREIGNS HIGH	2%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 15:35	LOTS ROAD	40%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 15:35	HIGHLAND GIRL	10%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 15:35	NOBLE PRINCE	12%	✓ Won
21 Oct	Newmarket 15:35	THE BALEARIC SUN	11%	,
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	FAST PERFORMER	4%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 15:35	AKARAKA	7%	,
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	KING OF MONTENEGRO	3%	,
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	ARTHUR CARROT	7%	,
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	TANSY LANE	4%	,
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	GOLD REEF CITY	5%	,
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	BABZINI	5%	,
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	ALJOON	9%	,
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	SAKOWIN	10%	,
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	FARASAN	12%	,
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	SOMERS ISLES	15%	,
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	HORNDEAN	16%	✓ Won
21 Oct	Kempton 18:30	GREAT OAK	22%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 17:20	CROWNED	10%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 17:20	CILICIAN	15%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 17:20	WASHINGTON ROYALE	13%	✓ Won
21 Oct	Newmarket 17:20	REX REGUM	10%	,
21 Oct	Worcester 13:40	SCORPIO RISING	16%	,
21 Oct	Worcester 14:15	BALLYDINE BOY	11%	✓ Won
21 Oct	Worcester 14:15	MAXI TWIST	11%	,
21 Oct	Worcester 14:15	GINOLO	12%	,
21 Oct	Worcester 14:15	FRENCH FANCY	12%	,
21 Oct	Worcester 14:15	DRESSFORSUCCESS	14%	,
21 Oct	Worcester 14:15	TIDE IS TURNING	28%	,
21 Oct	Worcester 13:40	VICOMTE LE BRAVE	13%	,
21 Oct	Worcester 13:40	BILL JOYCE	14%	,
21 Oct	Worcester 13:40	TALK TO THE MAN	16%	✓ Won
21 Oct	Worcester 13:40	CATCH HIM DERRY	8%	,
21 Oct	Worcester 13:40	KLIMT MADRIK	27%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 17:20	WHISKEY BENT	3%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 17:20	WEEKEND ROAR	2%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 17:20	DOWN TO YOU KID	6%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 17:20	METAMOUSE	5%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 17:20	WOLF BAY	5%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 17:20	BLESSED VOYAGER	8%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 17:20	DEL PEARO	3%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 17:20	ZAMBEZI SHARK	3%	,
21 Oct	Newmarket 17:20	IT DUNT MARRA	2%	,
20 Oct	Hexham 16:17	WELONLYHAVEDONE	17%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:35	SIRIUS	22%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:35	ABSURDE	18%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:35	SHOSHOLOZA	16%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:35	PUPPET MASTER	8%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:35	NARLITA	6%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:35	HUNTERS RUN	5%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:35	THE MEDIATOR	3%	,
20 Oct	Hexham 16:17	JERIKO DU REPONET	57%	,
20 Oct	Hexham 16:17	ROYAL INFANTRY	19%	✓ Won
20 Oct	Curragh 15:35	CONTORSION	9%	✓ Won
20 Oct	Newcastle 19:00	BLACK FURY	13%	,
20 Oct	Newcastle 19:00	POCKET CHANGE	6%	,
20 Oct	Newcastle 19:00	UNBEATABLE FAME	13%	,
20 Oct	Newcastle 19:00	TEXTING	4%	,
20 Oct	Newcastle 19:00	BONJOUR BELLE	5%	,
20 Oct	Newcastle 19:00	LONDON ROSE	4%	,
20 Oct	Newcastle 19:00	THE KALONJI MAN	9%	,
20 Oct	Newcastle 19:00	LE GRAND ETOILE	10%	,
20 Oct	Newcastle 19:00	NORTHERN VIOLA	13%	✓ Won
19 Oct	Bath 15:47	QUEST FOR GLORY	4%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:23	KING OF PERSIA	12%	,
19 Oct	Bath 15:47	ABSOLUTE DIAMOND	3%	,
19 Oct	Bath 15:47	MAGICAL LIFE	3%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:23	UNDER ARREST	23%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:23	APHRA BEHN	17%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:23	ORCHARD HATCHES	15%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:23	EMERALD BAY	13%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:23	CRAVEN FORCE	4%	✓ Won
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:23	HIGH HAZARD	10%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:23	BELLA LUCIA	9%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:23	STATTEN ISLAND	5%	,
19 Oct	Bath 15:47	DESERT SYMPHONY	4%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:23	DIPLOMACY	4%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:23	TRIBAL APPEARANCE	4%	,

Group. The races behind the number

Every runner's predicted chance and how it finished, the 200 most recent of 1127. Across all 1127: predicted 11.6%, actual 11.7%.

Date	Race	Horse	Model chance	Result
24 Oct	Doncaster 13:30	GIANT SEQUOIA	7%	✓ Won
24 Oct	Doncaster 13:30	BREACHER	8%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 13:30	GRAN DIA	11%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 13:30	SERGEI DIAGHILEV	15%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 13:30	NOBLE EXHIBIT	17%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 13:30	BURNING UP	23%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 13:30	AL HUDAIBA	27%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:00	SPANISH DARLING	12%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:00	ETERNAL ANGEL	23%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:00	COOLTOBECARELESS	15%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:00	BELLS GROVE	14%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:00	PLANTERS PUNCH	13%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:00	KINGOFTHEFRONTIER	7%	✓ Won
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:00	GOVERNORS ROCK	8%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:00	SCOTTS LEGACY	7%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:00	SIXPACK	6%	,
23 Oct	Cheltenham 15:00	MATIWO	5%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:00	ISLE OF CAPRI	9%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:00	MAIRE RUA	37%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:00	THE GOOD WIFE	16%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:00	BELLESQUE	14%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:00	MAGNA VICTORIA	11%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:00	GOLDEN RING	19%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:00	CHATTERING CLASSES	7%	✓ Won
20 Oct	Curragh 15:00	BLONDE OVER BLUE	5%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:00	CROSS OF STARS	4%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:00	APOLLOS COMET	5%	,
20 Oct	Curragh 15:00	ADMIRED BEAUTY	3%	,
18 Oct	Limerick 16:00	WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT	8%	,
18 Oct	Limerick 16:00	ICEBERG THEORY	11%	,
18 Oct	Limerick 16:00	A WAVE OF THE SEA	10%	,
18 Oct	Limerick 16:00	MEET AND GREET	9%	,
18 Oct	Limerick 16:00	KINGS HILL	6%	✓ Won
18 Oct	Limerick 16:00	LITTLEFOOT	5%	,
18 Oct	Limerick 16:00	FRENCH DYNAMITE	5%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 14:40	TAJLINA	3%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 15:20	TEN BOB TONY	7%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 15:20	DANCING GEMINI	7%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 15:20	DOCKLANDS	8%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 15:20	NEEDLE MATCH	6%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 15:20	RAYIF	10%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 15:20	MORE THUNDER	13%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 15:20	TALK OF NEW YORK	28%	✓ Won
17 Oct	Ascot 15:20	GSTAAD	30%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 14:40	MINNIE HAUK	8%	✓ Won
17 Oct	Ascot 14:40	SUGAR ISLAND	3%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 14:40	SEE THE FIRE	3%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 14:40	INIS MOR	4%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 14:40	COEDANA	5%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 14:40	BELIEVED	6%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 14:40	SYMBOL OF MAJESTY	9%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 14:40	SPARAN NUA	10%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 14:40	KALPANA	18%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 15:20	HAWK MOUNTAIN	4%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 15:20	ZEUS OLYMPIOS	5%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 14:40	LILT	8%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 15:20	ZAVATERI	3%	,
17 Oct	Leopardstown 15:07	LEADLIGHT	14%	,
17 Oct	Leopardstown 16:15	FIGHTING TEARS	7%	,
17 Oct	Leopardstown 16:15	SWITCHING SIDES	10%	,
17 Oct	Leopardstown 16:15	NOUVEAU GREY	10%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 16:00	OMBUDSMAN	53%	✓ Won
17 Oct	Leopardstown 16:15	CAPABILITY BROWN	16%	✓ Won
17 Oct	Leopardstown 16:15	TREAN	54%	,
17 Oct	Leopardstown 15:07	ARIZONA RAIDER	9%	,
17 Oct	Leopardstown 15:07	WUNDERSCHON	11%	,
17 Oct	Leopardstown 16:15	KING OF CLOUGHAN	15%	,
17 Oct	Leopardstown 15:07	ZARAK PASHA	19%	,
17 Oct	Leopardstown 15:07	WALL STREET	43%	✓ Won
17 Oct	Ascot 16:00	BAY CITY ROLLER	9%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 16:00	ALMAQAM	9%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 16:00	DEVILS ADVOCATE	12%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 16:00	CONSTITUTION RIVER	13%	,
17 Oct	Ascot 16:00	CALANDAGAN	14%	,
17 Oct	Leopardstown 15:07	ALBANY COUNTY	20%	,
14 Oct	Punchestown 15:55	SIR ALLEN	10%	,
14 Oct	Punchestown 15:55	CHANCEAWETMORNING	25%	✓ Won
14 Oct	Punchestown 15:55	VITORIO PIEL	14%	,
14 Oct	Punchestown 16:30	CROKE PARK	24%	,
14 Oct	Punchestown 16:30	GORGEOUS TOM	49%	✓ Won
14 Oct	Punchestown 16:30	APPLES OF BRESIL	15%	,
10 Oct	Newmarket 14:25	SOLE AMBITION	10%	,
10 Oct	Newmarket 14:25	NOTABLE DREAM	31%	,
10 Oct	Newmarket 14:25	ROCK MONTREAL	18%	✓ Won
10 Oct	Newmarket 14:25	SERGEI DIAGHILEV	16%	,
10 Oct	Newmarket 14:25	AL JABBAR	14%	,
10 Oct	Newmarket 14:25	MIA FANTASIA	6%	,
10 Oct	Newmarket 15:00	JASSAS	11%	,
10 Oct	Newmarket 14:25	CLASH OF HEARTS	4%	,
10 Oct	Newmarket 15:00	GREAT BARRIER REEF	21%	,
10 Oct	Newmarket 15:00	DARKNESS FALLS	16%	✓ Won
10 Oct	Newmarket 15:00	GENTLE HURRICANE	10%	,
10 Oct	Newmarket 15:00	DESERT CASTLE	42%	,
09 Oct	Chepstow 15:43	HOPEFUL HERO	5%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 14:57	ROGUE PASSION	13%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 14:57	LEX VICTORIA	14%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 14:57	FORBIDDEN FIRE	17%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 14:57	MUSICAL TIMES	31%	✓ Won
09 Oct	Chepstow 15:43	WEST HILL VERDE	2%	✓ Won
09 Oct	Chepstow 15:43	CHICKER	2%	,
09 Oct	Chepstow 15:43	LOCK STOCK	7%	,
09 Oct	Chepstow 15:43	COSMIC CONNECTION	26%	,
09 Oct	Chepstow 15:43	OBSESSEDWITHYOU	4%	,
09 Oct	Chepstow 15:43	LE MOULIN ROUGE	8%	,
09 Oct	Chepstow 15:43	LA COTE FLEURIE	10%	,
09 Oct	Chepstow 15:43	NORTH SHORE	14%	,
09 Oct	Chepstow 15:43	LORD BYRON	15%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 14:57	DANCING DESTINY	6%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 14:57	HAVEN	10%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	FELICITAS	3%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 14:57	SCOMMESSA SICURA	5%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	PACIFIC MISSION	4%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 14:57	EXCEPTIONALLY	4%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	PATAGONIA GIRL	1%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	MISS WONG	1%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	ROSE GHAIYYATH	1%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	LIZZANA	2%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	SONG OF THE CLOUDS	3%	✓ Won
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	DELLA PACE	1%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	FRANCOPHONE	5%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	SILVER LAKE	7%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	NAGA	10%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	NOCHE CLASICA	10%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	ON MESSAGE	11%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:45	TOULEEN	17%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 15:00	ELMONJED	13%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 13:55	WITCHES FAMILIAR	53%	✓ Won
03 Oct	Ascot 15:00	JASOUR	3%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 15:00	FITZELLA	3%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 15:00	STRATUSNINE	7%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 15:00	DILIGENT HARRY	5%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 15:00	COMPLETELY RANDOM	7%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 15:00	SAYIDAH DARIYAN	5%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 15:00	INTO THE SKY	4%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 14:25	AL AASY	16%	✓ Won
03 Oct	Ascot 15:00	PRINCE OF INDIA	11%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 15:00	DIVISION	18%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 15:00	HIDDEN FORCE	19%	✓ Won
03 Oct	Ascot 14:25	ROYAL PLAYWRIGHT	8%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 14:25	BY THE BOOK	40%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 14:25	ROYAL POWER	13%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 14:25	TENABILITY	22%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 13:55	GOEASYONME	5%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 13:55	MINO DES MOTTES	21%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 15:40	VICAR STREET	36%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 13:55	MINELLA HOLLOW	10%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 15:40	BOWENSONFIRE	15%	,
03 Oct	Newmarket 13:35	CALENDAR GIRL	10%	,
03 Oct	Newmarket 13:35	CITY OF MEMPHIS	14%	,
03 Oct	Newmarket 13:35	MOON TARGET	7%	,
03 Oct	Newmarket 13:35	KON TIKI	7%	,
03 Oct	Newmarket 13:35	EVOLUTIONIST	7%	,
03 Oct	Newmarket 13:35	BLUE BOLT	43%	✓ Won
03 Oct	Gowran Park 15:40	D ART D ART	5%	,
03 Oct	Newmarket 13:35	SECRET OF LIFE	13%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 15:40	SHADOW PADDY	18%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 15:40	FRANKIE JOHN	12%	✓ Won
03 Oct	Gowran Park 13:55	SWITCH FROM DIESEL	8%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 15:05	EMILY LOVE	9%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 15:05	FLEUR IN THE PARK	19%	✓ Won
03 Oct	Gowran Park 15:05	BLOOD DESTINY	58%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 13:55	LIKE AN OCEAN	3%	,
27 Sep	Curragh 15:45	ALPINE WEDDING	19%	,
27 Sep	Curragh 14:35	SOUL LOVE	20%	✓ Won
27 Sep	Curragh 14:35	POWER BLUE	17%	,
27 Sep	Curragh 14:35	BRUSSELS	11%	,
27 Sep	Curragh 14:35	ROYAL BAY CEN	9%	,
27 Sep	Curragh 14:35	BIG GOSSEY	8%	,
27 Sep	Curragh 14:35	TANGO FLARE	7%	,
27 Sep	Curragh 14:35	EAST HAMPTON	6%	,
27 Sep	Curragh 15:45	CURRACLOE	17%	✓ Won
27 Sep	Curragh 15:45	DAMSEL IN DISTRESS	15%	,
27 Sep	Curragh 15:45	VALUE PENDING	11%	,
27 Sep	Curragh 15:45	FILM SET	9%	,
27 Sep	Curragh 15:45	LADY PATRONA	8%	,
27 Sep	Curragh 15:45	TOSCA NO CANDIS	7%	,
27 Sep	Curragh 15:45	FINE LINE	6%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:00	HELL OF A SPIN	10%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:40	ASMEN WARRIOR	4%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:40	HAND OF GOD	5%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:40	GAVRIEL	5%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:40	PAROLE DORO	7%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:40	INDALO	7%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:40	ERZINDJAN	12%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:00	CONFUCIUS	7%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:00	FORCE NOIR	9%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:00	INNER CITY BLUES	23%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:00	PUSH THE BOAT OUT	11%	,
26 Sep	Curragh 15:10	CITY OF DUBAI	25%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:00	ORTHODOX	21%	✓ Won
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:40	NIZAM	3%	,
26 Sep	Curragh 15:10	TOMMY QUICK	10%	,
26 Sep	Curragh 15:10	DRUMBEAT	12%	,
26 Sep	Curragh 15:10	SHAKESPEARE	16%	,
26 Sep	Curragh 15:10	VENETIAN POWER	18%	,
26 Sep	Curragh 15:10	NOBLE EXHIBIT	21%	✓ Won
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:40	WILD THOUGHTS	4%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:00	MARCO POLO	13%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:40	ALCARATH	3%	,
26 Sep	Newmarket 15:40	SPELL MASTER	1%	,

Listed. The races behind the number

Every runner's predicted chance and how it finished, the 200 most recent of 800. Across all 800: predicted 11.3%, actual 11.1%.

Date	Race	Horse	Model chance	Result
24 Oct	Doncaster 14:05	ELEVATING	5%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 14:05	BIG HITTER	8%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 14:05	ROGUE JEWEL	8%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 14:05	HI CORBETT COURT	13%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 14:05	CRYSTAL QUEEN	14%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 14:05	ANGELS PASSING	17%	,
24 Oct	Doncaster 14:05	BENGAL TIGER	25%	✓ Won
22 Oct	Carlisle 16:12	BURDETT ROAD	10%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 16:12	WILFUL	34%	✓ Won
22 Oct	Carlisle 16:12	RUBAUD	20%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 16:12	GOLDEN ACE	18%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 16:12	HAMLETS NIGHT	7%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 16:12	MIRABAD	10%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 16:12	DEDICATED HERO	8%	,
22 Oct	Carlisle 16:12	INNER SUCCESS	5%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:53	PALACE LEGACY	9%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:53	KING HIGH	30%	✓ Won
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:53	SILVERELLA	16%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:53	UNDISCOVERED	13%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:53	GAME CHARACTER	17%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:53	KODIAC CITY	8%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:53	MARY DOLL	5%	,
19 Oct	Pontefract 14:53	TYRRHENIAN THUNDER	7%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 15:42	SNELLEN	21%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 14:42	KING CUAN	51%	✓ Won
18 Oct	Leopardstown 14:42	FAIYUM	24%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 14:42	LEWIS CARROLL	15%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 14:42	ZODIAC BEAR	14%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 14:42	DUBLINS KNIGHT	11%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 14:42	IRON FIST	11%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 14:42	KEY WITNESS	8%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 15:42	COME WHAT MAY	22%	✓ Won
18 Oct	Leopardstown 15:42	HAZDANN	18%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 15:42	DIEGO EL QUESO	16%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 15:42	MR VETTORI	14%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 15:42	NUIT	11%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 15:42	COWARDOFTHECOUNTY	10%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 15:42	SANCTIJUDE	6%	,
18 Oct	Leopardstown 15:42	SUNCHART	5%	,
17 Oct	Limerick 14:20	I DONT REALLY CARE	7%	,
17 Oct	Limerick 14:20	WORLD OF FORTUNES	49%	,
17 Oct	Limerick 14:20	CARRIED WITH LOVE	21%	✓ Won
17 Oct	Limerick 14:20	MAJESTIC FORCE	15%	,
17 Oct	Limerick 14:20	MILLSTREAM LADY	14%	,
17 Oct	Limerick 14:20	MY FOREVER ANNIE	10%	,
17 Oct	Limerick 14:55	EMERALD ENIGMA	25%	,
17 Oct	Limerick 14:55	DALLAS STAR	42%	,
17 Oct	Limerick 14:55	GANGSTER GRANNY	13%	,
17 Oct	Limerick 14:55	TINTO DE VERANO	12%	,
17 Oct	Limerick 14:55	TOUNTINNA	12%	✓ Won
17 Oct	Limerick 14:55	PETS GEORGINA	8%	,
14 Oct	Ffos Las 15:30	TUTTI QUANTI	14%	,
14 Oct	Ffos Las 15:30	GEORGES LAD	21%	,
14 Oct	Ffos Las 15:30	CAPTAIN TEAGUE	49%	✓ Won
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	BLUE BLUE MOON	7%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	CLASSIEST	2%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	QUALIXIA	2%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	QUEENS REIGN	3%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	RION RUBETTE	3%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	BAY COLONY	4%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	DUCHESS OF KENLI	7%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	KILLASHEE WARRIOR	9%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	REBEL WAVE	8%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	DROP DEAD GORGEOUS	7%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	GLYFADA	9%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	TREASURE ROSE	1%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	PRINCESS CHILD	17%	✓ Won
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	FAIYUM	20%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	NOLI TIMERE	1%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:40	BESET	23%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:05	WILD BESSIE	1%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:40	CAUGHT U SLEEPING	7%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:40	SO MUST I	1%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:40	SNAPRETEND	3%	✓ Won
11 Oct	Naas 15:40	ACULA	3%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:40	DERESSA	4%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:40	CHABLIS ROCK	5%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:40	CHICA GUERRERA	4%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:40	CHASING PARADISE	6%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:40	MOMENTS OF JOY	6%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:40	CAPICHERA	7%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:40	ZADAWA	9%	,
11 Oct	Naas 15:40	SHAOOL	10%	,
10 Oct	Naas 15:28	STAYSOUND SUSIE	9%	,
10 Oct	Naas 15:28	TWO STARS	22%	,
10 Oct	Naas 15:28	BAMAKO BEACH	22%	✓ Won
10 Oct	Naas 15:28	BIG GOSSEY	13%	,
10 Oct	Naas 15:28	LA BRODEUSE	11%	,
10 Oct	Naas 15:28	TANGO FLARE	8%	,
10 Oct	Naas 15:28	SAINT AGATHA	7%	,
10 Oct	Naas 15:28	LUNA MIA	4%	,
10 Oct	Naas 15:28	THUNDERBEAR	6%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:10	THE PRETTIEST STAR	19%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:10	HOLLYWOOD TREASURE	4%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:10	DANCE IN THE STORM	13%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:10	MAGIC BASMA	10%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:10	MIDNIGHT TANGO	11%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:10	ZEN DIVA	7%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:10	ISLE OF FERNANDEZ	5%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:10	LADY YOUMZAIN	4%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:10	ROGUE ATTRACTION	3%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:10	CHERRY BAKER	2%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:10	GOLDEN PALACE	2%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:10	SING THE BLUES	2%	,
09 Oct	Newmarket 16:10	RUBYS ANGEL	1%	✓ Won
08 Oct	Bath 15:15	PEACE BELLE	5%	,
08 Oct	Bath 15:15	BRILLIANT STAR	22%	✓ Won
08 Oct	Bath 15:15	PIERIAN	19%	,
08 Oct	Bath 15:15	LADY VIVIAN	12%	,
08 Oct	Bath 15:15	ALLA STELLA	12%	,
08 Oct	Bath 15:15	DOJIN	4%	,
08 Oct	Bath 15:15	VENETIA	8%	,
08 Oct	Bath 15:15	LITTLECOTE	3%	,
08 Oct	Bath 15:15	ORCHARD KEEPER	3%	,
08 Oct	Bath 15:15	ARAVALLI	2%	,
08 Oct	Bath 15:15	MISS DOLLY ROCKER	2%	,
08 Oct	Bath 15:15	LITTLE DORRIT	2%	,
05 Oct	Killarney 15:20	LATIN AMERICA	8%	,
05 Oct	Killarney 15:20	MANTON BAY	13%	,
05 Oct	Killarney 15:20	CAUGHT U SLEEPING	11%	,
05 Oct	Killarney 15:20	SHAIHAAN	7%	✓ Won
05 Oct	Killarney 15:20	ACTION	12%	,
05 Oct	Killarney 15:20	BACK STRAIGHT	9%	,
05 Oct	Killarney 15:20	GARDEN PARTY	8%	,
05 Oct	Killarney 15:20	ALPHECCA	5%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 14:30	LOUGHREA	10%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 14:30	KING CUAN	24%	✓ Won
04 Oct	Curragh 14:30	BIG GOSSEY	9%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 14:30	CAROLINA JETSTREAM	7%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 14:30	PRINCESS CHILD	6%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 14:30	SINDAGAN	12%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 14:30	WANNABE ROYAL	6%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	ROYAL BAY CEN	6%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 14:30	DMANIAC	5%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 14:30	UNAUTHORIZED	7%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 14:30	LEWIS CARROLL	14%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	CARLA RIDGE	6%	✓ Won
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	PIVOTAL ATTACK	4%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	FREGADA	3%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	GREYDREAMBELIEVER	4%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	INSTITUTE	13%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	DANCING SAXON	19%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	LUNA MIA	3%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	TREASURE ROSE	3%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	STAYSOUND SUSIE	4%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	DO FOR LOVE	2%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	THENANDNOW	3%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	LIKEDBYMIKE	6%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	SPACE BEAR	7%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	SPINNING AROUND	10%	,
04 Oct	Curragh 15:40	FOCACCIA	3%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:50	TUCO SALAMANCA	20%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:50	HEAVENLY HEATHER	4%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:50	BAKER BLUE	8%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:50	KING OF LIGHT	6%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:50	ARAMRAM	6%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:50	LIFEPLAN	8%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:50	AIR FORCE ONE	12%	✓ Won
03 Oct	Ascot 13:50	REGIONAL	9%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:50	FIRST INSTINCT	9%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:50	FLUORESCENCE	13%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:50	SHAGRAAN	6%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 13:20	GAUCHER	48%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:15	JUST A GIRL	4%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:15	JOSHS JOY	6%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:15	MOSTAR DREAMS	4%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:15	AMERICAN GAL	4%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:15	DOMINA IGNIS	6%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:15	BRECKENBROUGH	5%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:15	SECRET HISTORY	9%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:15	AWAKEN	6%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:15	DASH OF AZURE	5%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:15	ALBAYDAA	16%	,
03 Oct	Ascot 13:15	MIDNIGHT TANGO	5%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 13:20	EL CAIROS	17%	✓ Won
03 Oct	Ascot 13:15	SO REGAL	31%	✓ Won
03 Oct	Gowran Park 13:20	MISTER PESSIMISTIC	9%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:20	RLASTHOPE	4%	,
03 Oct	Gowran Park 13:20	SAMUI	10%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:55	MYAL	9%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:55	VALVANO	11%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:55	VAFORTINO	12%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:55	WITNESS STAND	9%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:55	OOLONG POOBONG	20%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:55	ELARAK	10%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:55	AUDIENCE	14%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:20	GLOBAL SUCCESS	3%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:20	CHEEKY CHESCA	3%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:55	SONDAD	14%	✓ Won
03 Oct	Redcar 15:20	TOO MANY SPIRITS	4%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:20	THAMES WATERMAN	8%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:20	SATELLITE OF LOVE	15%	✓ Won
03 Oct	Redcar 15:20	REVELS	10%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:20	MIND THOSE STEPS	6%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:20	STARDOM GLORY	10%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:20	MYESME	19%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:20	ELEVATING	8%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:20	BADDADDAN	5%	,
03 Oct	Redcar 15:20	QUILLAN	5%	,
02 Oct	Gowran Park 17:20	SARAHS LAWN	13%	✓ Won

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