How accurate are our probabilities?
Our whole approach rests on one thing: when we say a horse has a 30% chance, it should win about 30% of the time. Here's the proof — measured against real results, published openly.
↑
Probabilities highly accurate
±0.4pp
average gap between predicted and actual
Across 26,489 runners the model has assessed, its predicted win probabilities land within 0.4 percentage points of what actually happened, on average.
In plain terms: when we say 30%, horses win close to 30%. That's what makes the value calculations on the race page trustworthy — the probabilities are real.
Predicted chance vs actual win rate
Every horse the model assigns a probability to, grouped by predicted chance, compared to how often those horses actually won. The closer "Actual" is to "Predicted", the more trustworthy the number.
| Predicted Chance | Predicted Avg | Actual Win Rate | Difference | Runners | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | +0.7pp | 5889 |
|
| 5–10% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 0.0pp | 9088 |
|
| 10–15% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 0.0pp | 5432 |
|
| 15–20% | 17.1% | 17.9% | +0.8pp | 2616 |
|
| 20–25% | 22.3% | 23.1% | +0.8pp | 1370 |
|
| 25–30% | 27.4% | 27.3% | -0.1pp | 730 |
|
| 30–35% | 32.6% | 31.4% | -1.2pp | 557 |
|
| 35%+ | 42.3% | 40.1% | -2.2pp | 807 |
|
pp = percentage points. Green = within 3pp · Amber = within 7pp · Red = needs attention. Based on 26,489 runners across 92 racing days.
Accuracy by race type
Whether the probabilities hold up across different kinds of race. Predicted is the model's average chance; actual is how often those horses won.
Flat Handicap
Predicted11.2%
Actual11.0%
Difference
-0.2pp
13621 runners · see the races →
Novice / Maiden
Predicted11.7%
Actual12.1%
Difference
+0.3pp
5751 runners · see the races →
Other
Predicted11.4%
Actual11.8%
Difference
+0.4pp
3164 runners · see the races →
Jump Handicap
Predicted10.8%
Actual12.4%
Difference
+1.6pp
2792 runners · see the races →
Group
Predicted12.1%
Actual11.8%
Difference
-0.2pp
701 runners · see the races →
Listed
Predicted11.7%
Actual11.5%
Difference
-0.2pp
460 runners · see the races →
Flat Handicap — the races behind the number
Every runner's predicted chance and how it finished — the 200 most recent of 13621. Across all 13621: predicted 11.2%, actual 11.0%.
| Date | Race | Horse | Model chance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 19:05 | EL CARRUSEL | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | DARETOBEDIFFERENT | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:52 | ARBAAWY | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:52 | MY OLD MATE | 24% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:52 | ROYAL BODYGUARD | 30% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | SULLOM VOE | 2% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | FLAG OF EVA | 2% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | ESHOWE | 2% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | CORMORANT ROCK | 2% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | EZE SUR MER | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | DARKEST RED | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:14 | VOLENDAM | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | BLUE HILL | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | A DAUGHTERS LOVE | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | TENISON | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | DIJON GONE | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | FLETCHER | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | SHIRAKAWA | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:17 | TIME TO SPARKLE | 26% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:42 | DUC DE KENT | 9% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:52 | EASTERN VEIL | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:52 | MAYAADA | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:52 | WILD DAHLIA | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:52 | LIKENESS | 8% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:14 | JAZZIT | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:14 | AKASHAA | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:14 | MOYASSR | 14% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:14 | LAUNCH TIME | 15% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:14 | VERHOYEN | 20% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 17:27 | REDREDROBIN | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 17:27 | DANDY KHAN | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 17:27 | I AM ME | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 17:27 | POST RIDER | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 17:27 | PLAY ME | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 17:27 | MR UBIQUITOUS | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 17:27 | MARSH BENHAM | 12% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 17:27 | TRONIDO | 23% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 17:27 | OJ LIFESTYLE | 30% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:52 | FIZZY BEAR | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:52 | SAIL ON SAILOR | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 16:52 | ISLAND BEAR | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:42 | GORDON GREY | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:42 | GALAXY STAR | 13% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:42 | NAVAL COMMAND | 14% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 17:20 | BRIGHTON VIEW | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 17:20 | RAILWAYVIEW LADY | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 17:20 | MY BALLYQUINN | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 17:20 | MOCKING | 13% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 17:20 | MASTERINTHEWOODS | 14% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 17:20 | ITICA | 17% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 17:20 | DEVILS PEAK | 28% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 14:25 | WILD THOUGHTS | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 14:25 | SPYCE | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 14:25 | STRENGTH OF SPIRIT | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 14:25 | STONEACRE DONNY | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 14:25 | SINTRA | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 14:25 | RUNMAN | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 14:25 | KING OF EARTH | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 14:25 | DARIUS DARK | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 14:25 | BESIEGED | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 14:25 | BOURBON BLUES | 12% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 14:25 | KNIGHTS CHARGE | 28% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 17:20 | ALFRED WINCHAM | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 17:20 | MR FREEDOM | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:42 | CROOKED PATH | 26% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:35 | SILVER TRUMPET | 33% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:42 | CHARMAINE | 33% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:07 | SUPER HIT | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:07 | THANKYOU BARONESS | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:07 | SKIBO | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:07 | YOKKELL | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:07 | BOBACIOUS | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:07 | MOONRUNNER | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:07 | BEACH POINT | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:07 | PATROL | 24% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 15:07 | CARNIVAL DAY | 31% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:35 | GALILEO ISLAND | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:35 | MUSICAL ANGEL | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:35 | EUPHONIA | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:35 | CUBAN LADY | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:35 | UPPERCASE | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:35 | NORCROSS BROW | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:35 | DAPPER GUEST | 20% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:14 | INISHMOT PRINCE | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:35 | DARING LEGEND | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:14 | STAR ALLURE | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:05 | THE FIXER | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:05 | LITTLE JAYBEE | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:05 | MY MATE KEV | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:05 | A LOTT OF KANE | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:05 | LETS GO HUGO | 19% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:05 | PURE PASSION | 34% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 17:33 | QUEEN TAMARA | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 17:33 | VINCENZO PERUGGIA | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 17:33 | LOBLOLLY | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 17:33 | ROGUE DEFENCE | 15% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 17:33 | LAKE COMO | 21% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 17:33 | KAINDY | 35% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:58 | MIRAFLORES | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:58 | TILSWORTH MAX | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:58 | COILED | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:58 | VITALLINE | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:58 | ON KEY | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:58 | JACKSON STREET | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:05 | MART | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:05 | BIG BARD | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:58 | FULFORD CROSS | 13% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:35 | MAKE IT UP | 31% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:14 | COLUGO | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 19:05 | ETHEREAL CHARM | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 19:05 | BOSOM PALS | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 19:05 | ALKAIOS | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 19:05 | WILD ROSIE | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 19:05 | SERAGLIO POINT | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 19:05 | PRIVATE PROJECT | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 19:05 | MERITOCRATIC | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 19:05 | THUNDER GODDESS | 16% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 19:05 | THISONESFORYOU | 33% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:35 | PURE THEORY | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:35 | MASTER OF PUPPETS | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:35 | ARLECCHINOS REX | 6% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:35 | MISTER PRETENTIOUS | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:35 | PRIDE EYE | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:35 | BOSTON RUN | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:35 | HIGHLAND HARVEY | 25% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:58 | MAJESTIC WAVE | 13% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 18:35 | PABLO PRINCE | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:58 | FRANCISCO | 15% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:50 | LOHENGRIN | 25% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:50 | CHAVAJOD | 6% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:50 | BARRETSTOWN | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:50 | IM SPARTACUS | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:50 | SAITH SEREN | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:50 | BRAINS | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:50 | REPONSE FINALE | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:50 | ROMAN HARRY | 15% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:50 | MOVIN AND GROOVIN | 15% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:49 | UNA MATATA | 3% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 19:20 | VALIANT FORCE | 17% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:49 | PROFIT SURGE | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:49 | KITTY BEAR | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:49 | BOLD OPTIMIST | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:49 | RAPPELL | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:49 | COLLECTIVE POWER | 14% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:49 | FAOLADH | 19% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:58 | MIDNIGHTS DREAM | 22% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:49 | INITIAL BLUE | 23% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 19:20 | INDIGO DREAM | 24% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 17:49 | SPORTING HERO | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 19:20 | GLYNDWR | 15% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:23 | CHLOES COURAGE | 14% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:23 | SOUTH KENSINGTON | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:23 | BLUE COLLAR LAD | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 19:20 | SUMMER ISLAND | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:23 | MIGHTY RULER | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:23 | EDERGOLES GIFT | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:23 | BONNITA | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:23 | BEAU JARDINE | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:23 | IN THE CITY | 13% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:23 | WINEMAKER | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:23 | AFRICAN SPIRIT | 17% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 19:20 | GENUINE ARTICLE | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 16:23 | FEDERAL ENVOY | 23% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 19:20 | MUSICAL ACT | 3% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 19:20 | ALFRED TENNYSON | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 19:20 | HYGGE | 5% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 19:20 | TOLEBI | 6% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | NOTFORALONGTIME | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | LINGER FOR LONGER | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | BATTLEFORSUPREMACY | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 19:15 | ELUSIVE DUKE | 11% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | HEART OF ETERNITY | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | LILBITTYPRETTYONE | 1% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | LADY LANDHORT | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | NIOBITE | 1% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | PICK A WINDOW | 1% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | TARIFF | 1% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 19:15 | SHEREKIYA | 14% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | GILTS | 4% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | PRINCESS CHLOE | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | MICASSO | 9% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | SPENT ALL ME MONEY | 4% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | GREEN KITE | 5% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | FROSTED SKY | 5% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | CISTERNA | 6% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | CANNONBALL QUEEN | 6% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | SHES ON THE BALL | 8% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | SAYONARA | 8% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | LUST | 10% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | WHATSWRONGNOW | 12% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:15 | LIAMO | 13% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:10 | WHISKEY AND BEER | 1% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 19:15 | HOLY LETTUCE | 9% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:10 | PINAR DEL RIO | 1% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:10 | TORNADO KISS | 1% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 19:15 | GREEK FLOWER | 10% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 17:00 | ALKUMATIC JO JO | 6% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 19:15 | NAVAJO POINT | 9% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 19:15 | ALL HAIL | 6% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 18:00 | LONGLAI | 10% | — |
Novice / Maiden — the races behind the number
Every runner's predicted chance and how it finished — the 200 most recent of 5751. Across all 5751: predicted 11.7%, actual 12.1%.
| Date | Race | Horse | Model chance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:55 | TIS BUT A SCRATCH | 3% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:48 | PIRATES PARADISE | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:48 | TAKAAFUL | 16% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:48 | FULLY STOCKED | 17% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:48 | NOTE TO SELF | 29% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:13 | ODRISCOLL | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:13 | BATTLEFIELD BOY | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:13 | AROUSE | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:13 | WILD ROCK | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:13 | TIME ALONE | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:13 | MUCHACHO | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:13 | MARQUESSOFANGLESEY | 26% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:13 | SALVEZZA | 38% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:20 | DESERT OF THE SEA | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:20 | TYRAXES | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:20 | FAN CLUB | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:20 | CONVINCING | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:20 | JOE COOL | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:20 | SRON NA CAISE | 14% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:20 | THEREWILLBEGLORY | 17% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:20 | HUGOS GIRL | 19% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 18:20 | KAKORI | 38% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:00 | PRESSURED | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:00 | MY SPRITELY | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:00 | MONTALBANO | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:00 | DESERT SYMPHONY | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:00 | QUITE CHEEKY | 8% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:00 | GIVE HAND | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:00 | ASTABUEN | 13% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:00 | LOTS ROAD | 16% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:00 | LOUIS THE FIFTH | 24% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:48 | LADY OF LUCCA | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Epsom 14:00 | FOURTH CRUSADE | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:48 | BERKSHIRE DREAM | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:20 | EMERALD TIR | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:48 | CARROW ROAD | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:55 | BUTCHERS BILL | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:55 | ALEX THE GREAT | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:55 | RAMAAH | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:55 | COULD BE YOU | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:55 | ATHENAS DREAM | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:55 | BRIONYWELLS | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:55 | FRENCH DIABLO | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:55 | FOREST SPIRIT | 22% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:55 | CRAFTY GAEL | 23% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:20 | BILLY BUTCHER | 2% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:20 | BLUEY BAY | 3% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:20 | TROY STORY | 3% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:20 | SAVANNA STORM | 3% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:55 | DAARIS | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:20 | CEST POUR MOI | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 13:40 | MAN OH MAN | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:48 | MAXTON | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:20 | SYTADEL | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:48 | TOM THUMB | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 13:40 | KENZO DES BRUYERES | 15% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 13:40 | BROADWAY HONEY | 13% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 15:48 | TIDAL BLUE | 3% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:20 | GIANTS WAY | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 13:40 | SWINGFORTHEFENCE | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:20 | THEPASSINGCYCLONE | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:20 | BALTIC | 28% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 15:20 | LOCK STOCK | 9% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 13:40 | IZZYS GREY | 9% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 16:40 | AR SON NA CUISE | 9% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | GOLDEN RING | 9% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | ADMIRED BEAUTY | 12% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | HAVEN | 15% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | ALPINE WEDDING | 20% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Cork 16:40 | JUNGLE WISE | 5% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | SARAHS CHOICE | 24% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 16:40 | SNAPEQUUS | 7% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 16:40 | TENNESSPEED | 7% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | FLAMBE FLEUR | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 16:40 | EL DOMINO | 8% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | CASTILIAN QUEEN | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | YOUVEONLYONEMOTHER | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | ATLANTIC ROSE | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | NATIVE DAWN | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | EMANA | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | ABALONE | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | MARY CELESTE | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | HANAWA | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | TORVELLA | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | MAPLE LEAVES | 1% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 17:45 | SONIC SABIHA | 1% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 16:40 | REVELATOR | 17% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | ENIGMA CODE | 21% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Cork 16:40 | TIMUCUA GOLD | 11% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:12 | OXIDO | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 16:40 | MARCO POLO | 41% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 15:12 | WADACRE ICON | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | RIVER TRIEUX | 14% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:12 | FUNKY DORY | 20% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:12 | ORFILIA | 17% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:12 | FLOWER YOUMZAIN | 12% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:12 | TRADITTION | 9% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:12 | ANGELIC MELODY | 6% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:12 | KANDY MAGIC | 5% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:12 | LIKIRA ROSE | 5% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:12 | LADY FOXTROT | 5% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:12 | MAGNANIMOUS GRECIA | 4% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:12 | LA FLOR GRANADA | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:12 | HALCON | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 15:12 | ACT OF GENEROSITY | 23% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 15:12 | BLUE HERCULES | 20% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 15:12 | FLAGBEARER | 17% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 15:12 | LORD BYRON | 16% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 15:12 | HARPER VIOLET | 9% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 15:12 | IMPIERIOUS | 8% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 15:12 | LAZY IN RED | 4% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 15:12 | CASEMENT PARK | 4% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 15:12 | CHICO DORADO | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 15:12 | MIGHTY WAVE | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 15:12 | TOGEATHER FOREVER | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | ALMEIYDA | 18% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:12 | SUNSET COVE | 16% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | MY FIRST ROSE | 12% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 18:30 | ISABELLA OF ARAGON | 12% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 18:30 | PINK LARKSPUR | 10% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 18:30 | SIOUX EMPRESS | 9% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 18:30 | FLORAL | 8% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 19:00 | ENCHANTED QUEEN | 36% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 19:00 | YIMMNA | 18% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 19:00 | COSMIC GIRL | 11% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 19:00 | NOOZHAA | 7% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 19:00 | QUEEN OF HOPE | 6% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 19:00 | POINTED | 5% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 19:00 | TILSWORTH EMMA | 4% | — |
| 09 Sep | Redcar 14:21 | AL JOLSON | 28% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Redcar 14:21 | WHOS THE GOAT | 13% | — |
| 09 Sep | Redcar 14:21 | CLASSY NIGHT | 10% | — |
| 09 Sep | Redcar 14:21 | MR BLACK DIAMOND | 7% | — |
| 09 Sep | Redcar 14:21 | SUNTINO LADY | 7% | — |
| 09 Sep | Redcar 14:21 | STATEIRA BELLE | 7% | — |
| 09 Sep | Redcar 14:21 | TRAIN IN VAIN | 6% | — |
| 09 Sep | Redcar 14:21 | WALK IN PROVENCE | 5% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 14:00 | WAY MAKER | 52% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 14:00 | DATSTHEHOLYALLOFIT | 23% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 14:00 | EARNEST BELIEF | 15% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 14:00 | ROCK ARMOUR | 10% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | NOTTOOSHABBY | 8% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 18:30 | DREAMOLOGY | 11% | — |
| 09 Sep | Redcar 14:21 | EAGLES INSTINCT | 5% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 18:30 | LEX VICTORIA | 44% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | DRUMMOND HILL | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | CARRY THE DREAM | 6% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | RED CUILLIN | 4% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | SAAEQ | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | ZARENAKARENA | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | CAPTION THIS | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | BIG JAKE | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | SAN GIULIO | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 17:30 | EMERALD SPIRIT | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | UPPER WEST SIDE | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | FAITHFUL ARDAD | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | CUBAN LIGHTS | 2% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 18:45 | YOULOOKPERFECT | 1% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 17:30 | VENETIAN SKY | 19% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 17:30 | ASSIRI HEIGHTS | 14% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 17:30 | MERCANTILE | 13% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 17:30 | ORO PALACIO | 9% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 17:30 | ELECTRIC GAMBLER | 3% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 17:30 | BARACHIEL | 5% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 17:30 | OPEN TO OFFERS | 5% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 17:30 | SEA BRAVE | 23% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 17:30 | PROTECTRIX | 5% | — |
| 09 Sep | Kempton 17:30 | SECRET MESSAGE | 4% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 17:30 | ESTADO DE LA LUNA | 7% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 17:30 | MARY DOLL | 5% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Galway 17:30 | GREEN NATURE | 6% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 17:30 | SHENATA | 15% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 17:30 | CLOUGHLEAGH BRIDGE | 7% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 17:30 | KATIRAYA | 10% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 17:30 | CHURCHILL BOND | 17% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 17:30 | ARMARONES GIRL | 3% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 19:30 | OCEAN FIRE | 7% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 17:30 | EVIES DELIGHT | 2% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 19:30 | ZADAWA | 22% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Galway 19:30 | PORTERS CORNER | 20% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 19:30 | PINK CORAL | 13% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 19:30 | HEY STELLA | 12% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 19:30 | POSSUM | 10% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 19:30 | THISISTHEWAY | 9% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 19:30 | I HOPE YOU DANCE | 8% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 17:30 | AUTUMN GRAY | 18% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 19:30 | PLEASED | 6% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 17:30 | LUNAR EMPRESS | 18% | — |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 14:28 | PERSIAN GATE | 39% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 15:43 | LAMAR RIVER | 7% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 17:42 | ROSE WARRIOR | 5% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 19:30 | MARYS MIRACLE | 3% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 17:12 | CAPTAIN COOL | 53% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 17:12 | KRAK | 25% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 17:12 | ROADLESSTRAVELLED | 12% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 17:42 | HIDDEN FORTUNE | 33% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 17:42 | RIDE LIKE A GIRL | 24% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 17:42 | CADILLAC RANCH | 14% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 17:42 | PROVISION | 12% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 17:42 | SECRET BEACH | 5% | — |
Other — the races behind the number
Every runner's predicted chance and how it finished — the 200 most recent of 3164. Across all 3164: predicted 11.4%, actual 11.8%.
| Date | Race | Horse | Model chance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep | Worcester 14:45 | MEGATOTHEMAX | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:45 | RAFES DA MAN | 18% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | BLAZING INFERNO | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | ICY MOON | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | A BEAR AFFAIR | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | BACKMEIFYOUCAN | 3% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | DORIGO | 3% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | MITHAALY | 3% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | ONGOMBO | 2% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | SECRET SOCIETY | 2% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | SOVEREIGN GLORY | 2% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:10 | WAASIL | 34% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:10 | AL WATHBA | 18% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:10 | KEEP GRATING | 17% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:10 | ZARAKOVA | 16% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:10 | METAMOUSE | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:10 | PRIMAL | 8% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | ALFA HOODINI | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | GOD GIVEN TALENT | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | ZIGAZIG AH | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:15 | BYMIDDAYTOMORROW | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:15 | SPEED OF SOUND | 20% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:15 | WONDERVISION | 15% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:15 | ROLLTHEDICEBABY | 14% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:15 | ART OF LIFE | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:15 | KODI BEAR LIGHT | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:15 | DOWNONMAINSTREET | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:15 | ROOSIKE | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | THE DANCING PIRATE | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:15 | ANGEL SENSE | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:15 | LEUCOTHEA | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:15 | ANGEL IN MY HEART | 3% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | NIGHT IN VEGAS | 21% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | SATELLITE OF LOVE | 14% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | SEVEN NATION ARMY | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:45 | UNDISCOVERED | 26% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 13:50 | STARDOM GLORY | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:45 | FUEL THE JET | 13% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 14:40 | REX REGUM | 15% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 14:40 | LADY ROSALIND | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 14:40 | TRUST YOURSELF | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 14:40 | MY MARIA | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 14:40 | HOLI SCARLETT | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 14:40 | SEA PALACE | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 14:40 | ARABICA QUEEN | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 14:40 | FRUMOASA | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 14:40 | GREEK STREET | 3% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 14:45 | DELULU | 33% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 14:45 | SPANISH DARLING | 14% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 14:45 | GILWEN GEORGIA | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 14:45 | WANNABE SPORTY | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 14:45 | JAUNTY TROOPER | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 14:45 | CHASE THE STATUS | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:45 | MIDGHAM MAN | 13% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 14:40 | HORNDEAN | 13% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 14:45 | EMILYFROMTHEKNOLL | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 14:40 | SULTAN DARIUS | 17% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 16:39 | SPIRIT OF EAGLES | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:45 | STORM BLADE | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:45 | SANBONA WARRIOR | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:45 | LOVE ROME | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 16:45 | WEEKEND ROAR | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 16:39 | LAND OF THE GIANTS | 22% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 16:39 | GOLDRUSH KID | 16% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 16:39 | BLUE ANTHEM | 30% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 16:39 | DINAMINE | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 16:39 | SHES IDEAL | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 16:39 | THOMPSON GUNNER | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 16:39 | AURORA NOVA | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 16:39 | DISTILLATE | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Laytown 16:39 | DEVILS ANGEL | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Lingfield 14:40 | LOCATION LOCATION | 19% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:42 | EXCESSIVE | 4% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:42 | FAST PERFORMER | 26% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:42 | STATE OF GOLD | 24% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:42 | NORTH STAR KODI | 18% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:42 | SOCIAL SPIRIT | 13% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:42 | CATURRA LIGHTS | 10% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:42 | HARLEQUIN GIFT | 7% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:42 | MY NORMANDIE | 7% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:42 | PONTE CARLO | 6% | — |
| 09 Sep | Carlisle 14:42 | DONEGAL ROSE | 5% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 17:05 | PERGAMON | 14% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Cork 16:10 | ZOAR | 23% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 16:10 | EYECONIC | 13% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 16:10 | BELLE PARVENUE | 12% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 16:10 | NATION BLAZE | 8% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 17:05 | KING ULANDA | 46% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 17:05 | MAX OF STARS | 15% | — |
| 09 Sep | Cork 16:10 | THE SCALLIONATOR | 42% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 17:51 | NANNY PARK | 7% | — |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 17:51 | FLEUR DE MER | 12% | — |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 17:51 | GOOD ONYA MATE | 10% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 16:18 | NEVER LOOSE | 12% | — |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 17:51 | PEDRO THE POET | 6% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 16:18 | JAVA WOOD | 25% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 16:18 | LORD MASSUSUS | 14% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 17:51 | ZIMMERMAN | 30% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 17:51 | STAR START | 17% | — |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 13:53 | MICKS THE BOY | 8% | — |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 13:53 | STEAMY WONDER | 6% | — |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 13:53 | SPECTACULAR DIVER | 7% | — |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 13:53 | JOHNS POWER | 7% | — |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 13:53 | MORIARTY MOON | 14% | — |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 13:53 | LADY TITANIA | 20% | — |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 13:53 | CHEEKY CHESCA | 24% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Catterick 13:53 | AURA OF MELANIA | 26% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 16:18 | EDDIE G | 14% | — |
| 08 Sep | Goodwood 14:40 | GLOBAL SUCCESS | 12% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 16:18 | CASAMORATI | 10% | — |
| 08 Sep | Leicester 14:52 | SON OF A FISH | 14% | — |
| 08 Sep | Leicester 14:52 | FORTUNATE | 4% | — |
| 08 Sep | Leicester 14:52 | COUL BLUE | 4% | — |
| 08 Sep | Leicester 14:52 | KING OF PERSIA | 6% | — |
| 08 Sep | Leicester 14:52 | HAMDANI MOKHATER | 7% | — |
| 08 Sep | Leicester 14:52 | HONEYMOON BEAR | 8% | — |
| 08 Sep | Leicester 14:52 | HEMUSTBEANANGEL | 11% | — |
| 08 Sep | Leicester 14:52 | BOSSY ANGEL | 5% | — |
| 08 Sep | Leicester 14:52 | ARCTIC TSAR | 16% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Goodwood 14:40 | THE CAN CAN QUEEN | 9% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 16:18 | LADY ARWEN | 10% | — |
| 08 Sep | Goodwood 14:40 | SPIRIT TANGO | 12% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Goodwood 14:40 | AL SAMSAMA | 14% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 16:18 | CLEAR QUARTZ | 6% | — |
| 08 Sep | Leicester 14:52 | PERFECT HOPE | 32% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | KALINKA DE LOIRE | 4% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | STREAMHILL | 13% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | MAXDALE PRINXESS | 12% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | AN LACHIN BEAG | 7% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | LAKE PIPPAWAY | 5% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | GEORGES ORDER | 4% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | BIG BUDGIE | 3% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | MOZARTS SONG | 3% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | PROMETTEUSE | 3% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | SUMMER SANDALS | 3% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | MELODY DARC | 2% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | BRICKFIELD BELLE | 23% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | DISCUSSION | 13% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:09 | MILAN FORTH | 6% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | BAYMOUNT | 25% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:41 | POLEPATRICK | 9% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:41 | DAYDREAM NATION | 11% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:41 | MONGIBELLO | 15% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:41 | OCASTLE DES MOTTES | 15% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:41 | NDAAWI | 33% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:09 | THECOMPANYSERGEANT | 5% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 14:00 | TIMELY SALUTE | 28% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:09 | FRENCH DYNAMITE | 6% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:09 | SAMUI | 9% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:09 | BUDDY ONE | 12% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:09 | PAULS DREAM | 17% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:09 | GRANNS BOY | 22% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:09 | BLOOD DESTINY | 32% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 14:00 | MOMENT OF LIGHT | 30% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:41 | WHATSHERNAME | 2% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 14:00 | NICOLAI | 10% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | CRUSE ON BYE | 3% | — |
| 07 Sep | Wolverhampton 17:30 | TIME AND EFFORT | 3% | — |
| 07 Sep | Wolverhampton 17:30 | GOOD FIGHTER | 4% | — |
| 07 Sep | Wolverhampton 17:30 | LE CIEL NOBLE | 5% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 14:00 | ZOOTER | 10% | — |
| 07 Sep | Wolverhampton 17:30 | SABLE ISLAND | 7% | — |
| 07 Sep | Wolverhampton 17:30 | CHIANTI | 11% | — |
| 07 Sep | Wolverhampton 17:30 | LAURALYNN | 12% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Wolverhampton 17:30 | LADY OF HAY | 14% | — |
| 07 Sep | Wolverhampton 17:30 | CALEF | 15% | — |
| 07 Sep | Wolverhampton 17:30 | CRYSTAL KRAKEN | 19% | — |
| 07 Sep | Wolverhampton 17:30 | CAVAN LADY | 22% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | PURPLE DREAM | 2% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | LOLA | 3% | — |
| 07 Sep | Wolverhampton 17:30 | TRUST HAVANA | 6% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | ALPHA LEGEND | 3% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | MARRALYN | 5% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | FROM ME TO YOU | 5% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | TALLAHASSEE LASSIE | 7% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | HAVANANOTHER | 9% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | PAST PASSION | 11% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | BLUE SKIES ABOVE | 12% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | WOPBOPALOOMOP | 16% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | DEVON ANGEL | 20% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | COURAGE BEST | 22% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 14:00 | RAJBELLO | 8% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 14:00 | JERSEYGEORDIE | 8% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 15:12 | SO TEMPTING | 5% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 17:15 | MAIN DE FER | 10% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 17:15 | SILVER WHISPER | 12% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 17:15 | PETITE POET | 12% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 17:15 | UPTOYOURSELVES | 9% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 17:15 | MILLIEDRAM | 8% | ✓ Won |
| 04 Sep | Down Royal 17:30 | DEAR THEODOSIA | 6% | — |
| 04 Sep | Down Royal 17:30 | FINE LINE | 9% | — |
| 04 Sep | Down Royal 17:30 | ELYATTA | 10% | — |
| 04 Sep | Down Royal 17:30 | ROMANCE | 14% | ✓ Won |
| 04 Sep | Down Royal 17:30 | SUMMER SENT YOU | 18% | — |
| 04 Sep | Down Royal 17:30 | SOMEDAY SOMEWHERE | 19% | — |
| 04 Sep | Ascot 16:15 | VEBLEN GOOD | 6% | — |
| 04 Sep | Ascot 16:15 | SUSPICIOUS MINDZ | 7% | — |
| 04 Sep | Ascot 16:15 | DEBRIEF | 7% | — |
| 04 Sep | Ascot 16:15 | MALACHYS WISH | 9% | ✓ Won |
| 04 Sep | Ascot 16:15 | JOLLY ROGER | 9% | — |
Jump Handicap — the races behind the number
Every runner's predicted chance and how it finished — the 200 most recent of 2792. Across all 2792: predicted 10.8%, actual 12.4%.
| Date | Race | Horse | Model chance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep | Worcester 17:05 | FARHH ECHO | 5% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 16:30 | AT SUNRISE | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 14:10 | YOUDECIDE | 42% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 14:10 | CREBILLY | 27% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 14:10 | GLEN TO GLEN | 16% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 14:10 | KARNAVAL POINT | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 14:10 | SNIPE | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 16:30 | BERRY EDGE | 33% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 16:30 | HARRY GULLIVER | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 16:30 | JESSIE JUMP JET | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 16:30 | NOBLE RECALL | 10% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 16:30 | FLAWLESS CLARITY | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 16:30 | SWEET SERENE | 20% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 16:30 | GETAWAY WITH YOU | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 17:05 | AMERICAN EMPIRE | 11% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 16:30 | SWEET HONEY B | 5% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 17:05 | DYNAMITE DEFENSE | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 17:05 | BABYCHINO | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 17:05 | INCA | 9% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 17:05 | USYK | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 17:05 | IKIGAI STAR | 13% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 17:05 | BATHARA | 19% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 17:05 | TRAVELING SOLDIER | 36% | — |
| 10 Sep | Worcester 16:30 | COSMIC SPIRIT | 4% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 15:30 | GETAWAY JEWEL | 13% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 14:30 | STELLARMASTERPIECE | 31% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 14:30 | CURIOUS MRS FOX | 12% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 14:30 | SPOT ON SOPH | 10% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 14:30 | LONE STAR | 9% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 14:30 | BROOKLYN LULLABY | 6% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 14:30 | DUSKY SPYGLASS | 6% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 15:00 | LIMERICK LEADER | 39% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 15:00 | GLENMALURE FLYER | 27% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 15:00 | THANK YOU BLUE | 15% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 15:30 | DEXTER | 30% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 15:30 | TROPICAL TALENT | 24% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 16:00 | BALLYGEARY | 10% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 15:30 | HOOPER | 6% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 16:30 | EAST EAGLE | 37% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 15:30 | SOCKS OFF | 6% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 16:30 | DR SEB | 11% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 16:30 | LUMINARIES | 15% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 16:30 | LIPSTICK TRACES | 10% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 16:00 | SKYJACK HIJACK | 13% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 16:00 | LORIKO | 21% | ✓ Won |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 16:00 | GLORY AND HONOUR | 22% | — |
| 09 Sep | Sedgefield 16:00 | LADIES DAY | 37% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 18:42 | HELLO SWEETY | 24% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 16:38 | DUEL AU SOLEIL | 42% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 16:38 | JIAIR MADRIK | 25% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 16:38 | COUNTRY PARK | 14% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 16:38 | DISCO DAVIS | 13% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 16:38 | LERMOOS LEGEND | 11% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 18:12 | ZAMOND | 20% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 18:12 | WHOS GLEN | 13% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 18:12 | DREAM JET | 10% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 18:12 | ROCK HURLEY | 7% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 18:12 | PERSON OF INTEREST | 7% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 18:42 | PLAYFUL FOX | 35% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 18:42 | ROARIN SUCCESS | 15% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 19:12 | SCOTTISH DANCER | 13% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 19:12 | HILLVIEW | 6% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 19:12 | PRESENT FAIR | 7% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 19:12 | FANE COURT | 9% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 19:12 | SEAHOUSES | 11% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 19:12 | YOU DID | 6% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 19:12 | CAMINO ROCIO | 25% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 19:12 | FINE PRINT | 34% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 18:42 | SYOSSET | 9% | — |
| 08 Sep | Bangorondee 18:42 | UHTRED RAGNARSON | 11% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:11 | TANTRUM BOY | 8% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | GYPSY POET | 4% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | JOSHUA CHAMBERLAIN | 4% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | KATIES CASPER | 3% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | EL ARCO | 2% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | PHILDANTE | 2% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | MONTYS WAY | 2% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | THE LITTLE YANK | 1% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | FAIR DAMSEL | 1% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:11 | POETIC FOCUS | 19% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:11 | GORTMORE LADY | 10% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:11 | GRACE FARADAY | 9% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:11 | LOVE LIKE THIS | 2% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:11 | JOURNEY SO FAR | 6% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:11 | STRONG CONTENDER | 6% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:11 | TAWNY LEA | 5% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:11 | DARK BERKSHIRE | 3% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | CLONE CROSS | 6% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:11 | MIDLETON RARE | 2% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 18:11 | AGENT TEQUILA | 1% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:11 | JUKE HILL | 16% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:11 | ONEFORGONZO | 15% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:11 | TELL US THIS | 14% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:11 | JUSTATAN | 10% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | BARRYROE MADAM | 5% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | SYNCHRONIZE | 1% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | MOONSHINE GIRL | 7% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | PAUL COLLINS | 4% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | COLINS FRIEND | 13% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | CROWSATEDAPPLETART | 11% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | EURO MAKER | 11% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | HILLSTAR BLUES | 9% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | IM ALL IN | 8% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | INTHENICKOFTIME | 7% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | MART LANE | 7% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | I FEEL FINE | 6% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | CODGERS ROCK | 5% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | MILLION DOLLAR MAN | 5% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | ROC MY HAARTH | 4% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | COUP DESSAY | 8% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | BECKISTINE | 3% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | BROTHER HOLLIE | 3% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | DONTCAVEIN | 3% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | PALACE BOY | 2% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | ARCTIC PIPER | 2% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | JAY JAY ZEE | 2% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 16:38 | KOME DANS UN REVE | 1% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:11 | SMALLCRAFTWARNING | 9% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | LADIAM | 13% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 17:41 | PRINCESS FELICIA | 11% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:11 | NOLANS ROCCO | 9% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 15:50 | NO REGRETS | 27% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:11 | BRANDT | 6% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:20 | HAWKSEYE VIEW | 7% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 15:20 | SCRIABIN | 7% | — |
| 07 Sep | Galway 19:11 | THATS ABOUT RIGHT | 5% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 15:50 | REGAL RENAISSANCE | 35% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 15:50 | SIR CARNEGIE | 14% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Perth 15:50 | WASDELL DUNDALK | 10% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:20 | FOLLOW CHARLIE | 29% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:20 | GARRICK PAINTER | 13% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:20 | ANNIE AGNEW | 10% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:20 | LETS MINGLE | 8% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:20 | BOGHA BAISTE | 7% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:20 | SPIT SPOT | 6% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 15:20 | ELEMENTAL EYE | 8% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:20 | TIGRESS LILLY | 5% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:20 | KINBARA FIRSTDRAFT | 4% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:50 | DOWN AROUND | 35% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:50 | LE GRAND VERT | 24% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:50 | CMON SO | 13% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:50 | DALILEO | 12% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:50 | THEIRSHEGOES | 10% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:50 | MIDNIGHT MOONSHINE | 8% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:50 | SAUCE OF LIFE | 7% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 16:50 | BURGUNDY MAN | 6% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 15:20 | INAPPROPRIATE | 7% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Perth 15:20 | JUST DOTTIE | 5% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 15:20 | PURE GOLD | 10% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 15:30 | BASHFUL BOY | 7% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 15:00 | SAINT POLO | 38% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 15:00 | JUGGERNAUT | 23% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 15:00 | MISS DENVER | 15% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 15:00 | MOST WANTED | 14% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 15:00 | MELTON MOSSY | 10% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 15:30 | JAGER TIME | 35% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 15:30 | MY GIRL KATIE | 21% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 15:30 | FAIRLAWN SKIPPER | 12% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Perth 15:20 | NOBOTHERATALL | 13% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 15:30 | MASTERDREAM | 10% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 15:30 | ALBERTS BAY | 9% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 15:30 | HENRY BOX BROWN | 12% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 16:00 | EDELAK | 42% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 16:30 | JETTY MAY | 14% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 15:20 | TRY THEM | 21% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 16:00 | ARCTIC VOYAGE | 28% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 16:30 | MY CULLEN | 10% | — |
| 07 Sep | Perth 15:20 | CASTLEHEATH | 36% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 16:30 | MCGREGORS CHARGE | 27% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 16:30 | MR MCWHINNY | 35% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 16:00 | WAR CORRESPONDENT | 12% | — |
| 07 Sep | Newton Abbot 16:00 | ELLERTON | 22% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 15:30 | THE KINGS SOLDIER | 8% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 14:20 | ROYAL RHYTHM | 34% | ✓ Won |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 14:20 | CLEVER RELATION | 26% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 14:20 | JEFE TRIUNFO | 14% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 14:20 | ATREIDES | 11% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 15:30 | UNSPEAKABLE | 15% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 15:30 | FRANKIE FAULKNER | 12% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 15:30 | OF CORSE I CAN | 12% | ✓ Won |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 15:30 | GATA BAN | 35% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 16:05 | NO MORE BOLERO | 35% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 16:05 | MOTAZZEN | 11% | ✓ Won |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 16:40 | IMPERIAL BEDE | 16% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 16:40 | MIDNIGHT JEWEL | 45% | ✓ Won |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 16:40 | MARTINS DENUO | 12% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 16:05 | ASK A SAINTE | 27% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 16:05 | START AGAIN | 14% | — |
| 06 Sep | Fontwell 16:05 | SO PROUD | 17% | — |
| 05 Sep | Stratford 17:45 | GOWER PRINCE | 17% | — |
| 05 Sep | Stratford 18:15 | JACKSTELL | 9% | ✓ Won |
| 05 Sep | Stratford 18:15 | DINONS | 9% | — |
| 05 Sep | Stratford 18:15 | TIME TO BITE | 15% | — |
| 05 Sep | Stratford 18:15 | JUAN BERMUDEZ | 22% | — |
| 05 Sep | Stratford 18:15 | ROARING HOME | 36% | — |
| 05 Sep | Stratford 17:45 | SONY BILL | 9% | — |
| 05 Sep | Stratford 17:45 | IN THIS WORLD | 9% | — |
| 05 Sep | Stratford 17:45 | SIR TIVO | 16% | — |
| 05 Sep | Stratford 17:15 | WESTERN SOLDIER | 8% | — |
| 05 Sep | Stratford 17:45 | BREAKING COVER | 32% | ✓ Won |
Group — the races behind the number
Every runner's predicted chance and how it finished — the 200 most recent of 701. Across all 701: predicted 12.1%, actual 11.8%.
| Date | Race | Horse | Model chance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:35 | SPECKLES | 3% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:35 | TALL TREES | 16% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:00 | DANIELLE | 15% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:00 | CAMEO | 12% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:00 | NYRA | 10% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:00 | WAARDAH | 9% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:00 | CONSENT | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:00 | FLORESTA | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:35 | MUSICAL TIMES | 22% | ✓ Won |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:00 | PRIZELAND | 21% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:35 | SEA OF RAIN | 15% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:35 | SCOMMESSA SICURA | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:35 | BEGUILED | 8% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:35 | THURITHA | 7% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:35 | MARTINET | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:35 | BALLYSKEAGH | 6% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:35 | EABHA | 4% | — |
| 10 Sep | Doncaster 15:35 | TIE A NAVYRIBBON | 12% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 16:15 | HARMONICS | 13% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 16:15 | RAAHEEB | 21% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 16:15 | MAHO BAY | 18% | ✓ Won |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 16:15 | MORRIS DANCER | 15% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 16:15 | ON MESSAGE | 11% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 16:15 | CREST OF FIRE | 9% | — |
| 07 Sep | Windsor 16:15 | VENETIAN PRINCE | 7% | — |
| 05 Sep | Kempton 14:50 | PRIDE OF ARRAS | 12% | ✓ Won |
| 05 Sep | Haydock 15:40 | ALMERAQ | 20% | ✓ Won |
| 05 Sep | Haydock 15:40 | BIG MOJO | 16% | — |
| 05 Sep | Haydock 15:40 | COPPULL | 14% | — |
| 05 Sep | Haydock 15:40 | ARAMRAM | 12% | — |
| 05 Sep | Haydock 15:40 | PABORUS | 10% | — |
| 05 Sep | Haydock 15:40 | JAMESS DELIGHT | 9% | — |
| 05 Sep | Haydock 15:40 | MARVELMAN | 7% | — |
| 05 Sep | Haydock 15:40 | KIND OF BLUE | 6% | — |
| 05 Sep | Kempton 14:50 | GETHIN | 23% | — |
| 05 Sep | Kempton 14:50 | CONSTITUTION HILL | 13% | — |
| 05 Sep | Kempton 15:20 | BATED BENEVOLENCE | 4% | — |
| 05 Sep | Kempton 14:50 | WARRANT HOLDER | 10% | — |
| 05 Sep | Kempton 14:50 | DUBAI FUTURE | 7% | — |
| 05 Sep | Kempton 15:20 | MOONRISE | 14% | ✓ Won |
| 05 Sep | Kempton 15:20 | TAWAKAL | 12% | — |
| 05 Sep | Kempton 15:20 | ADAAY OF SCARLETT | 10% | — |
| 05 Sep | Kempton 15:20 | EFSIXTEEN | 9% | — |
| 05 Sep | Kempton 15:20 | SOCIAL SYMBOL | 8% | — |
| 05 Sep | Kempton 15:20 | NICELY | 6% | — |
| 05 Sep | Kempton 15:20 | SHIMMERING SUN | 5% | — |
| 03 Sep | Salisbury 16:14 | HARLEQUIN SKY | 7% | — |
| 03 Sep | Salisbury 16:14 | MISS KODI | 21% | — |
| 03 Sep | Salisbury 16:14 | NUIT DECLAIR | 18% | — |
| 03 Sep | Salisbury 16:14 | LOVE IS | 11% | — |
| 03 Sep | Salisbury 16:14 | FILLIPAS | 10% | — |
| 03 Sep | Salisbury 16:14 | LOLA DE VALENCE | 9% | — |
| 03 Sep | Salisbury 16:14 | IMPULSIVE SPIRIT | 5% | — |
| 03 Sep | Salisbury 16:14 | MISS LIZZY | 6% | — |
| 03 Sep | Salisbury 16:14 | ACCLAMATION STAR | 4% | ✓ Won |
| 03 Sep | Salisbury 16:14 | ELEVATING | 3% | — |
| 03 Sep | Salisbury 16:14 | DARK ISSUE | 5% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 15:30 | GREYDREAMBELIEVER | 3% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 15:30 | CATALINA DELCARPIO | 25% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 15:30 | MAGNY COURS | 14% | ✓ Won |
| 30 Aug | Cork 15:30 | CROMAC QUAY | 11% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 15:30 | PRINCESS CHILD | 8% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 15:30 | PREVALENCE | 7% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 15:30 | WANNABE ROYAL | 6% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 15:30 | SPINNING AROUND | 5% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 15:30 | STUGARDIA | 4% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 15:30 | JOSHS JOY | 4% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 15:30 | DANCING SAXON | 16% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 15:30 | WILD BESSIE | 3% | — |
| 30 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | SIENA STORM | 13% | — |
| 30 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | APEROLL | 12% | — |
| 30 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | BAYSIDE VIEW | 10% | — |
| 30 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | LIGHT OF DAWN | 8% | ✓ Won |
| 30 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | APOLLOS COMET | 7% | — |
| 30 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | REDLINE | 6% | — |
| 30 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | EABHA | 4% | — |
| 30 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | COAXED | 15% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | DELLA PACE | 4% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | SINDRIA | 6% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | SKY WATCH | 5% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | GARDEN PARTY | 4% | — |
| 29 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | BOILING POINT | 20% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | SYZYGY | 3% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | THALARA | 3% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | SPICY MARGARITA | 2% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | DROP DEAD GORGEOUS | 10% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | SAGA GAGA | 8% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | MISS SCOTT | 29% | ✓ Won |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | BOSPHORUS ROSE | 11% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | PIVOTAL ATTACK | 12% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | MERIDEN | 14% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:40 | FAIYUM | 16% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:03 | WHERE LOVE LIVES | 12% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:03 | PUSH THE BOAT OUT | 13% | ✓ Won |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:03 | LIVENKA | 16% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:03 | VELOZEE | 19% | — |
| 29 Aug | Curragh 15:03 | GREAT BARRIER REEF | 26% | — |
| 29 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | EBTS GUARD | 11% | — |
| 29 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | ZAVATERI | 16% | ✓ Won |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 14:50 | NOCHE CLASICA | 4% | — |
| 29 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | QIRAT | 9% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 14:50 | MAEVA | 5% | — |
| 29 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | FAST TRACKER | 8% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 15:30 | FIREHORSE | 6% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 15:30 | KODIAC CITY | 7% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 15:30 | GREEN SOVEREIGN | 8% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 15:30 | SONIC ANGEL | 9% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 15:30 | ALFRED WALLACE | 10% | ✓ Won |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 15:30 | BREACHER | 12% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 15:30 | MIA FANTASIA | 13% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 14:50 | PACIFIC MISSION | 5% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 15:30 | DOVER STREET | 5% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 14:50 | LOVE DYNASTY | 6% | ✓ Won |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 14:50 | KON TIKI | 7% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 14:50 | CAP SANTA LUCIA | 8% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 14:50 | MOON TARGET | 10% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 14:50 | SO REGAL | 12% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 14:50 | SECRET OF LIFE | 17% | — |
| 29 Aug | Sandown 14:50 | CALENDAR GIRL | 20% | — |
| 29 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | NAQEEB | 5% | — |
| 29 Aug | Goodwood 15:10 | SEAGULLS ELEVEN | 7% | — |
| 23 Aug | Naas 16:00 | TREASURE ROSE | 9% | — |
| 23 Aug | Naas 16:00 | SOUL LOVE | 23% | — |
| 23 Aug | Naas 16:00 | FIRST INSTINCT | 19% | — |
| 23 Aug | Naas 16:00 | HAVANA ANNA | 14% | — |
| 23 Aug | Naas 16:00 | DANCING SAXON | 17% | — |
| 23 Aug | Naas 16:00 | CHANTEZ | 7% | ✓ Won |
| 23 Aug | Naas 16:00 | FOCACCIA | 6% | — |
| 23 Aug | Naas 16:00 | TEMPERANCE | 5% | — |
| 22 Aug | Curragh 14:50 | ALPHA | 28% | — |
| 22 Aug | Curragh 14:50 | IBELIEVEICANFLY | 21% | — |
| 22 Aug | Curragh 14:50 | GREEN EMPRESS | 19% | ✓ Won |
| 22 Aug | Curragh 14:50 | DANCING DESTINY | 16% | — |
| 22 Aug | Curragh 14:50 | BLONDE OVER BLUE | 12% | — |
| 22 Aug | Curragh 15:25 | NOLA SOUL | 27% | — |
| 22 Aug | Curragh 15:25 | GIANT SEQUOIA | 22% | ✓ Won |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | ROGUE DIPLOMAT | 12% | — |
| 22 Aug | Curragh 15:25 | FLORIDA BAY | 19% | — |
| 22 Aug | Curragh 15:25 | CITY OF DUBAI | 13% | — |
| 22 Aug | Curragh 15:25 | GREEN DREAMER | 11% | — |
| 22 Aug | Curragh 15:25 | NAIL HOUSE | 10% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | NOTABLE SPEECH | 14% | ✓ Won |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | PABORUS | 6% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | FLORA OF BERMUDA | 10% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | ZAVATERI | 4% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | SATONO REVE | 9% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | LIFEPLAN | 2% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | PUERTO RICO | 3% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | NATIVE WARRIOR | 4% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | POWERFUL GLORY | 3% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | TEN BOB TONY | 5% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | MARVELMAN | 7% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | POWER BLUE | 7% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 15:00 | LAKE FOREST | 8% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:00 | ADAAY OF SCARLETT | 14% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:00 | MATTEO | 4% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:00 | ARAPAHO GOLD | 5% | ✓ Won |
| 21 Aug | York 15:00 | FINAL OBJECTIVE | 6% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:00 | HELL OF A SPIN | 7% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:00 | MARCO POLO | 9% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:00 | AGAMEMNON | 10% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:00 | NEVER ENOUGH | 11% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 14:25 | MOUNT ATLAS | 13% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 14:25 | FRENCH MASTER | 5% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 14:25 | AL NAYYIR | 6% | ✓ Won |
| 21 Aug | York 14:25 | COLUMBUS | 7% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 14:25 | QUICKTHORN | 8% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 14:25 | AMILOC | 10% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 14:25 | ILLINOIS | 15% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 14:25 | CABALLO DE MAR | 18% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | STARLUST | 14% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:00 | RONSON | 3% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:00 | MUSSAB | 5% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | RAYEVKA | 10% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | FITZELLA | 4% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | TIME FOR SANDALS | 1% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | REDORANGE | 2% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | AZURE ANGEL | 2% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | HEAVENLY HEATHER | 2% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | PARTISAN HERO | 2% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | PERSHAADA | 3% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | JM JUNGLE | 3% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | RUMSTAR | 3% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | NIGHT RAIDER | 4% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | BACIO | 5% | ✓ Won |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | AMERICAN AFFAIR | 6% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | AINT NOBODY | 6% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | COVER UP | 7% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | ASFOORA | 8% | — |
| 21 Aug | York 15:35 | MISSION CENTRAL | 9% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 15:35 | MINNIE HAUK | 10% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 15:35 | JOHANNA WALSH | 21% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 15:35 | LEGACY LINK | 18% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 15:35 | TATTYCORAM | 13% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 15:35 | KALPANA | 12% | ✓ Won |
| 20 Aug | York 15:35 | SPARAN NUA | 6% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 15:35 | INIS MOR | 9% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 15:35 | EARTH SHOT | 8% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 15:35 | SUGAR ISLAND | 5% | — |
| 19 Aug | York 15:00 | PIERRE BONNARD | 17% | — |
Listed — the races behind the number
Every runner's predicted chance and how it finished — the 200 most recent of 460. Across all 460: predicted 11.7%, actual 11.5%.
| Date | Race | Horse | Model chance | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | TAMAM DESERT | 2% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | BESET | 7% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | CLASSIEST | 20% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | CHASING PARADISE | 18% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | NAVY WATERS | 12% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | TEOLOGIA | 10% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | CHABLIS ROCK | 9% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | NANS VIEW | 8% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | SNAPRETEND | 16% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | NUIT | 5% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | DUVESSA | 4% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | ICE DANCER | 4% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | GALILEO DAME | 3% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | NARLITA | 3% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | KALIXA | 3% | — |
| 08 Sep | Galway 18:30 | ANKARA | 5% | — |
| 06 Sep | York 15:50 | EXTREMELY ZAIN | 12% | ✓ Won |
| 06 Sep | York 15:50 | AMERICA QUEEN | 23% | — |
| 06 Sep | York 15:50 | DOUBLE RUSH | 19% | — |
| 06 Sep | York 15:50 | SPYCATCHER | 17% | — |
| 06 Sep | York 15:50 | BEHIKE | 14% | — |
| 06 Sep | York 15:50 | DICKENSIAN | 8% | — |
| 06 Sep | York 15:50 | REGIONAL | 9% | — |
| 06 Sep | York 15:50 | NARIKO | 7% | — |
| 06 Sep | York 15:50 | LAM YAI | 5% | — |
| 31 Aug | Ripon 15:05 | NOT MY TYPE | 14% | — |
| 31 Aug | Ripon 15:05 | CLASH OF HEARTS | 24% | — |
| 31 Aug | Ripon 15:05 | ROGUE JEWEL | 18% | — |
| 31 Aug | Ripon 15:05 | SILENT BEAUTY | 16% | ✓ Won |
| 31 Aug | Ripon 15:05 | BEAR LEE | 6% | — |
| 31 Aug | Ripon 15:05 | HARRY KNOWS | 9% | — |
| 31 Aug | Ripon 15:05 | NAPA | 7% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 16:05 | LIKEDBYMIKE | 23% | ✓ Won |
| 30 Aug | Beverley 14:15 | WASHINGTON HEIGHTS | 21% | — |
| 30 Aug | Beverley 14:15 | AL SHABAB STORM | 13% | — |
| 30 Aug | Beverley 14:15 | BADRI | 10% | — |
| 30 Aug | Beverley 14:15 | ELEGANT ERIN | 7% | — |
| 30 Aug | Beverley 14:15 | AINT NOBODY | 6% | — |
| 30 Aug | Beverley 14:15 | JM JUNGLE | 5% | ✓ Won |
| 30 Aug | Beverley 14:15 | ARGENTINE TANGO | 5% | — |
| 30 Aug | Beverley 14:15 | BEAUJOLAIS NOUVEAU | 4% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 16:05 | KENDALL ROY | 16% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 16:05 | GAZELLE DOR | 14% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 16:05 | SARAHMAE | 11% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 16:05 | EROSANDPSYCHE | 8% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 16:05 | CARDIFF BY THE SEA | 6% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 16:05 | FOCACCIA | 5% | — |
| 30 Aug | Cork 16:05 | XERLING | 4% | — |
| 29 Aug | Windsor 18:30 | RESPOND | 9% | — |
| 29 Aug | Windsor 18:30 | WHITE BIRCH | 21% | — |
| 29 Aug | Windsor 18:30 | GHOSTWRITER | 16% | — |
| 29 Aug | Windsor 18:30 | SILAWI | 10% | — |
| 29 Aug | Windsor 18:30 | TENABILITY | 19% | ✓ Won |
| 29 Aug | Windsor 18:30 | SEA SCOUT | 8% | — |
| 29 Aug | Windsor 18:30 | AMBIENTE FRIENDLY | 5% | — |
| 29 Aug | Windsor 18:30 | MUDDY MOOY | 6% | — |
| 22 Aug | Killarney 16:55 | JALILA MORIVIERE | 27% | ✓ Won |
| 22 Aug | Killarney 16:55 | WEST AWAY | 3% | — |
| 22 Aug | Killarney 16:55 | REXEM | 4% | — |
| 22 Aug | Killarney 16:55 | LISLEIGH LAD | 6% | — |
| 22 Aug | Killarney 16:55 | SHES A FINE WINE | 6% | — |
| 22 Aug | Killarney 16:55 | DRUMGILL | 9% | — |
| 22 Aug | Killarney 16:55 | SOLITARY MAN | 14% | — |
| 22 Aug | Chester 14:40 | TACTICIAN | 5% | — |
| 22 Aug | Newmarket July 15:19 | WORDS OF TRUTH | 15% | — |
| 22 Aug | Chester 14:40 | DURAJI | 6% | — |
| 22 Aug | Chester 14:40 | MIDAK | 8% | ✓ Won |
| 22 Aug | Chester 14:40 | ORCHARD KEEPER | 11% | — |
| 22 Aug | Chester 14:40 | LADY VIVIAN | 12% | — |
| 22 Aug | Chester 14:40 | FANTASY WORLD | 16% | — |
| 22 Aug | Chester 14:40 | BY THE BOOK | 23% | — |
| 22 Aug | Newmarket July 15:19 | PRINCE OF INDIA | 24% | ✓ Won |
| 22 Aug | Killarney 16:55 | SENECIA | 17% | — |
| 22 Aug | Newmarket July 15:19 | ELARAK | 12% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 16:45 | HICKORY LAD | 8% | — |
| 22 Aug | Newmarket July 15:19 | DUBAI BLING | 10% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 16:45 | JAAN KI TUKRI | 4% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 16:45 | EL FLORIDITA | 4% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 16:45 | DANCE A JIG | 5% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 16:45 | ROOTS IN TOUCHE | 6% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 16:45 | SILESIA | 7% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 16:45 | HANNEY BOY | 7% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 16:45 | DUBAI CHAMPION | 9% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 16:45 | ADONIUS | 15% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 16:45 | DORIGO | 16% | — |
| 22 Aug | York 16:45 | SALE SHARK | 18% | ✓ Won |
| 22 Aug | Newmarket July 15:19 | CABURN | 5% | — |
| 22 Aug | Newmarket July 15:19 | MIDNIGHT TANGO | 6% | — |
| 22 Aug | Newmarket July 15:19 | QUINAULT | 9% | — |
| 21 Aug | Killarney 18:20 | HARDY WARRIOR | 11% | — |
| 21 Aug | Killarney 18:20 | EAST HAMPTON | 25% | — |
| 21 Aug | Killarney 18:20 | CAROLINA JETSTREAM | 19% | — |
| 21 Aug | Killarney 18:20 | JAGGED EDGE | 15% | ✓ Won |
| 21 Aug | Killarney 18:20 | QUEBEC | 12% | — |
| 21 Aug | Killarney 18:20 | RION RUBETTE | 4% | — |
| 21 Aug | Killarney 18:20 | SYZYGY | 10% | — |
| 21 Aug | Killarney 18:20 | MOONLIT SUN | 7% | — |
| 21 Aug | Killarney 18:20 | WEARING STARS | 5% | — |
| 21 Aug | Killarney 18:20 | SUBSONIC | 4% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 16:10 | VAUNTINGLY | 14% | — |
| 20 Aug | Leopardstown 18:30 | CANNES | 26% | — |
| 20 Aug | Leopardstown 18:30 | PIAZZA SAN MARCO | 22% | — |
| 20 Aug | Leopardstown 18:30 | ABBOTSFORD | 19% | — |
| 20 Aug | Leopardstown 18:30 | HIGHWAYMAN | 14% | ✓ Won |
| 20 Aug | Leopardstown 18:30 | WYMAN | 12% | — |
| 20 Aug | Leopardstown 18:30 | MADBADANDDANGEROUS | 10% | — |
| 20 Aug | Leopardstown 18:30 | TEOLOGIA | 8% | — |
| 20 Aug | Leopardstown 18:30 | KEEPSGETTINGBETTER | 5% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 16:10 | MORROPHORE | 23% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 16:10 | A LA PROCHAINE | 17% | — |
| 20 Aug | Leopardstown 18:30 | TROJAN FIGHTER | 7% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 16:10 | RHAPSODY | 12% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 16:10 | RYKA | 4% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 16:10 | CLUB CLASS | 3% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 16:10 | K SARRA | 3% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 16:10 | CAPICHERA | 3% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 16:10 | ASHARIBA | 2% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 16:10 | MERVEILLEUX LAPIN | 5% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 16:10 | SUMMERSON | 6% | — |
| 20 Aug | York 16:10 | PRIZELAND | 8% | ✓ Won |
| 20 Aug | York 16:10 | PERFECT YOUR CRAFT | 6% | — |
| 16 Aug | Pontefract 16:45 | ARABIAN DUSK | 23% | — |
| 16 Aug | Curragh 16:55 | NEW BOND STREET | 20% | — |
| 16 Aug | Curragh 16:55 | ARMOR SUPREME | 17% | ✓ Won |
| 16 Aug | Curragh 16:55 | STAR PROSPECT | 15% | — |
| 16 Aug | Curragh 16:55 | GRAYROBIN | 13% | — |
| 16 Aug | Curragh 16:55 | CONCORDE LANDED | 10% | — |
| 16 Aug | Curragh 16:55 | STELLAR PATH | 8% | — |
| 16 Aug | Curragh 16:55 | BRAZILIAN DIVA | 7% | — |
| 16 Aug | Curragh 16:55 | THE BADDIE | 4% | — |
| 16 Aug | Curragh 16:55 | APRIL MIST | 4% | — |
| 16 Aug | Curragh 16:55 | ARROWSTOCK | 6% | — |
| 16 Aug | Pontefract 16:45 | ROYAL FIXATION | 16% | — |
| 16 Aug | Pontefract 16:45 | SING THE BLUES | 12% | — |
| 16 Aug | Pontefract 16:45 | AMERICA QUEEN | 11% | ✓ Won |
| 16 Aug | Pontefract 16:45 | CATCHING THE MOON | 6% | — |
| 16 Aug | Pontefract 16:45 | KILLAVIA | 5% | — |
| 16 Aug | Pontefract 16:45 | BRAZILIAN ROSE | 4% | — |
| 16 Aug | Pontefract 16:45 | DASH OF AZURE | 4% | — |
| 16 Aug | Pontefract 16:45 | RUBYS ANGEL | 3% | — |
| 16 Aug | Pontefract 16:45 | MISS NIGHTCAP | 13% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:03 | CELTIC MOON | 4% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:35 | KEKE | 8% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:35 | TAHCAWIN | 9% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:35 | SUZIE SONGS | 11% | ✓ Won |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:35 | TEMPERANCE | 12% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:35 | FORT VEGA | 22% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:35 | PRINCESS CHILD | 23% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:03 | MAIRE RUA | 9% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:03 | SHI YANG | 5% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:03 | DAMSEL IN DISTRESS | 6% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:03 | ALWAYSANANGEL | 7% | ✓ Won |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:03 | MADAM SECRETARY | 20% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:03 | ALPINE WEDDING | 12% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:03 | NEVERMINDTHERAIN | 16% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:35 | L L KOULSTY | 6% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:35 | NANCY J | 7% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:03 | BEIBHINN | 9% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:35 | SPINNING AROUND | 5% | — |
| 14 Aug | Newbury 17:23 | HAVANA LIGHTNING | 6% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:35 | SINDAGAN | 4% | — |
| 14 Aug | Newbury 17:23 | DUBAI CHARM | 2% | — |
| 14 Aug | Newbury 17:23 | ELEVATING | 3% | — |
| 14 Aug | Newbury 17:23 | LOVER GIRL | 4% | — |
| 14 Aug | Newbury 17:23 | SEXY CHICK | 5% | — |
| 14 Aug | Newbury 17:23 | COSMIC MYSTERY | 6% | — |
| 14 Aug | Newbury 17:23 | BLUE FLIGHT | 4% | — |
| 14 Aug | Newbury 17:23 | WATEERA | 7% | — |
| 14 Aug | Newbury 17:23 | EFSIXTEEN | 21% | — |
| 14 Aug | Newbury 17:23 | FAST TRACK | 9% | — |
| 14 Aug | Newbury 17:23 | ACTING LADY | 25% | — |
| 14 Aug | Cork 18:35 | TREASURE ROSE | 3% | — |
| 14 Aug | Newbury 17:23 | ACCLAMATION STAR | 13% | — |
| 14 Aug | Newbury 17:23 | ANGELS LANE | 12% | ✓ Won |
| 12 Aug | Salisbury 15:30 | VELOCIRAPTOR | 10% | — |
| 12 Aug | Gowran Park 15:52 | LEMSAIRBAT | 22% | — |
| 12 Aug | Gowran Park 15:52 | MINERVA | 15% | — |
| 12 Aug | Gowran Park 15:52 | CLASSIEST | 13% | — |
| 12 Aug | Gowran Park 15:52 | HOLLYS GRACES | 11% | — |
| 12 Aug | Gowran Park 15:52 | SUBSONIC | 9% | — |
| 12 Aug | Gowran Park 15:52 | STAR PERFORMER | 7% | ✓ Won |
| 12 Aug | Salisbury 15:30 | QUEST FOR STARS | 20% | ✓ Won |
| 12 Aug | Salisbury 15:30 | FIREHORSE | 15% | — |
| 12 Aug | Salisbury 15:30 | SCOMMESSA SICURA | 13% | — |
| 12 Aug | Gowran Park 15:52 | SKYDANCE | 18% | — |
| 12 Aug | Salisbury 15:30 | MY AALI BABA | 6% | — |
| 12 Aug | Salisbury 16:30 | MISS SCOTT | 21% | — |
| 12 Aug | Salisbury 16:30 | ON MESSAGE | 18% | ✓ Won |
| 12 Aug | Salisbury 16:30 | ALLA STELLA | 16% | — |
| 12 Aug | Salisbury 16:30 | REGAL CHARM | 14% | — |
| 12 Aug | Salisbury 16:30 | FELICITAS | 12% | — |
| 12 Aug | Salisbury 16:30 | ANNASTARZY | 9% | — |
| 12 Aug | Salisbury 16:30 | GOLDILOCKS CEN | 7% | — |
| 12 Aug | Salisbury 15:30 | ROCKET BOY | 5% | — |
| 08 Aug | Haydock 15:00 | CALENDAR GIRL | 12% | ✓ Won |
| 08 Aug | Haydock 15:00 | FALLEN ANGEL | 20% | — |
| 08 Aug | Haydock 15:00 | RUMBA NUMBA | 17% | — |
| 08 Aug | Haydock 15:00 | PACIFIC MISSION | 16% | — |
| 08 Aug | Haydock 15:00 | ALOBAYYAH | 14% | — |
| 08 Aug | Haydock 15:00 | BLINGYS SISTER | 4% | — |
Why we show you this
Most racing products show you their winners. We show you how accurate our numbers are — including where they're not perfect.
A well-calibrated probability is the foundation of finding value. If the model says a horse has a 25% chance and the market is offering odds that imply 15%, that gap is only meaningful if the 25% is real. This page is our evidence that it is — updated continuously from settled results.
If the numbers ever drift, you'll see it here first. That's the deal.
That record is published every day, wins and misses alike. Members get the same numbers on every UK and Irish race before it runs.
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