How it works
Spot value in 60 seconds — no maths homework.
Looking for tips? Fair enough — here's ours, every day: the
★ Top Rated horse in every race is
the one our model makes most likely to win. That's your tip.
But we give you what tipsters can't: how likely it really is, and whether the price is worth taking. A tip at the wrong price loses money even when it wins often. That's the difference between following tips and beating the bookies.
But we give you what tipsters can't: how likely it really is, and whether the price is worth taking. A tip at the wrong price loses money even when it wins often. That's the difference between following tips and beating the bookies.
Every horse has a real chance of winning. Our model works it out, then checks it
against the price. When the price is bigger than the chance deserves,
that's value — and that's what we flag. That's the whole game.
Anatomy of a race card
Here's what you'll see for every runner — the value flag is the green one.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price |
Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Example Lad ★ Top Rated |
32% |
20% |
5.0 ▲ Edge increasing |
+60% |
| 2 | Market Darling |
25% |
27% |
3.7 ▼ Edge decreasing |
-7% |
1
# — our rank. The model's order. 1 = the horse we rate most likely to win.
2
Model Chance. Our calibrated win probability. When we say 30%, those horses win about 30% of the time — and we publish the proof.
3
Market Implies. The chance the price suggests. A 5.0 price implies 1-in-5, or 20%.
4
Average price. The typical price across 20+ bookmakers, updated through the day — so the value isn't down to one outlier bookie.
5
▲ Edge increasing / ▼ Edge decreasing. Green up = the price has drifted out since this morning, so there's more value. Red down = it's been backed in.
6
Value. The edge — how much bigger the price is than our fair price. Green is value; grey means none.
Reading it: value vs no value
✅ Value
Example Lad — we rate it 32% to win, but the price (5.0) implies only
20%. We think it's a much bigger chance than the price says — that gap is the
edge. Flagged +60% value, and it's drifting out, so it's getting better.
➖ No edge
Market Darling — we rate it 25%, the price implies 27%.
The market's got it about right (a shade shorter than us). No value — we'd leave it.
Then make it yours: My Slip
🎫 Members
Tap + Slip on any runner to build your day's slip — singles, each-way,
doubles & trebles at your own stakes. We show each bet's real chance vs the
price you're getting (on a treble too — maths no bookie will show you), then the
slip settles itself from the official results and your personal
track record builds day by day. Wins, losses and voids — your record,
in black and white.
The honest bit
We're not tipsters. A value horse can still lose — that's racing. EdgeDigger is about getting the best of it over hundreds of bets, not winning every one. And we don't hide our losers: we publish exactly how accurate we are, including where we're wrong.
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