Bath 13:20 — Value Analysis

Big Stage Hire "Confined" Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Horses Which Have Not Won A Flat Race In 2026)

Saturday 12 September 2026

Amateur GD 11.5f Class 6 9 runners
Model's most likely REVICH 18% model chance · market 20%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates REVICH top (18% chance)

Third three times in his last six starts and dropping from a field rating of 61 to 54 today, he is well treated on official ratings; the good is the question, and he has yet to win at this level.

  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Among the best recent form figures in the race
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ The good is a question mark for it

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
—
ARUNDEL NR
J: Mr Henry Callan · T: Ed Dunlop
2.8 ·market 36%
32%
36%
2.8
 -11% Withdrawn
1
REVICH ★ Top Rated
J: Miss Georgia King(5) · T: Adrian Wintle
5.0 ·market 20%
18%
20%
5.0
 -11%
2
STINTINO SUNSET
J: Mr Ross Birkett · T: Julia & Shelley Birkett
3.2 ·market 31%
12%
31%
3.2
▲ Edge increasing
 -60%
3
GREY FOX
J: Mr Kieran Wood(7) · T: Emma Lavelle
6.8 ·market 15%
10%
15%
6.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -34%
4
THE PUG
J: Mr Josh Myers(7) · T: Olly Murphy
6.5 ·market 15%
9%
15%
6.5
 -41%
5
THREE YORKSHIREMEN
J: Miss M Boucher · T: Jack Jones
7.0 ·market 14%
9%
14%
7.0
 -40%
6
APPLEJACK POET
J: Miss Imogen Mathias(3) · T: Barry John Murphy
23.0 ·market 4%
6%
4%
23.0
 +46%
7
SHAHBAZ
J: Miss Brodie Hampson · T: Archie Watson
6.0 ·market 17%
6%
17%
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -65%
8
COGITAL
J: Miss Jessica Llewellyn(5) · T: Bernard Llewellyn
15.0 ·market 7%
4%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -36%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org