Chester 13:30 — Value Analysis

Virgin Bet Stand Cup Stakes (Listed Race)

Saturday 12 September 2026

Listed GTS 12.5f Class 1 6 runners
Model's most likely DUBAI HONOUR 34% model chance · market 62%
★ Best value TOO SOON model 17% vs market 11% · +51%
Why the model rates DUBAI HONOUR top (34% chance)

Preferred to Plage De Havre, 11lb better in at the weights and better on the ground, with Cieren Fallon and William Haggas 25% together; third when he ran 28 days ago, and unproven at this level is the only quibble.

  • ✓ Preferred to Plage De Havre, 11lb better in at the weights and better on the ground
  • ✓ Cieren Fallon and William Haggas win 25% together
  • ✓ Cieren Fallon riding well, 18% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✕ Unproven at this level
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
DUBAI HONOUR ★ Top Rated
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas
1.6 ·market 62%
34%
62%
1.6
 -45%
2
PLAGE DE HAVRE
J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Andrew Balding
4.3 ·market 23%
20%
23%
4.3
 -15%
3
TOO SOON
J: Warren Fentiman · T: Gary & Josh Moore
9.0 ·market 11%
17%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +51%
4
ULURU
J: Joe Leavy · T: David Menuisier
51.0 ·market 2%
13%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +554%market disagrees
5
MASTER VINTNER
J: Hector Crouch · T: Ralph Beckett
19.0 ·market 5%
11%
5%
19.0
 +110%
6
GREY CUBAN
J: Oisin Orr · T: Hugo Palmer
17.0 ·market 6%
9%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +47%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org