Doncaster 13:10 — Value Analysis

British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Winner Receives Free Entry To The 2027 Betfred St Leger) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Saturday 12 September 2026

Maiden GD 8.0f Class 2 10 runners
Model's most likely AL JABBAR 30% model chance · market 29%
★ Best value AL JABBAR model 30% vs market 29% · +5%
Why the model rates AL JABBAR top (30% chance)

Preferred to Hmas Perth, better proven at this class, and ticks most boxes: Charlie Appleby is 34% in the last two months and with debutants, Billy Loughnane 22%; second when he ran 22 days ago, if lightly tested.

  • ✓ Preferred to Hmas Perth, better proven at this class
  • ✓ Charlie Appleby's yard in form, 34% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Charlie Appleby readies first-timers, 34% with debutants
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
AL JABBAR ★ Top Rated
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Charlie Appleby
3.5 ·market 29%
30%
29%
3.5
 +5%
2
HMAS PERTH
J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien
4.5 ·market 22%
18%
22%
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -20%
3
GAME CHARACTER
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Hugo Palmer
5.0 ·market 20%
13%
20%
5.0
 -36%
4
BERKSHIRE REGAL
J: Jason Watson · T: Andrew Balding
9.5 ·market 11%
9%
11%
9.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -10%
5
BOMBORA
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
12.0 ·market 8%
8%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -4%
6
FINGER CROSS
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Harry Charlton
29.0 ·market 3%
7%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +102%
7
KINGSPELL
J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon
11.0 ·market 9%
6%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -30%
8
ROYAL QUEST
J: David Probert · T: Andrew Balding
9.0 ·market 11%
6%
11%
9.0
 -45%
9
BELOVED COUNTRY
J: Robert Havlin · T: Ed Dunlop
34.0 ·market 3%
5%
3%
34.0
 +84%
10
FALCON FLY
J: Silvestre De Sousa · T: Ismail Mohammed & Jose Santos
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +141%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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