Doncaster 13:55 — Value Analysis

Betfred "the Classic Bookmaker" Handicap Stakes

Sunday 13 September 2026

Other Handicap GD 6.5f Class 2 14 runners
Model's most likely ASUKA 29% model chance · market 25%
★ Best value ASUKA model 29% vs market 25% · +17%
Why the model rates ASUKA top (29% chance)

Solid claims across the board: proven at this level, some of the best recent form here, third when he ran 22 days ago and the trip suits; a poor run three back and an untested profile are the queries.

  • ✓ Preferred to Completely Random, better proven at this class
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 6f
  • ✓ Among the best recent form figures in the race
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ASUKA ★ Top Rated
J: Hector Crouch · T: George Boughey
4.0 ·market 25%
29%
25%
4.0
 +17%
2
COMPLETELY RANDOM
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Harry Charlton
5.5 ·market 18%
14%
18%
5.5
 -25%
3
BLUE BROTHER
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Hamad Al Jehani
4.5 ·market 22%
9%
22%
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -59%
4
BERKSHIRE WHISPER
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding
12.0 ·market 8%
8%
8%
12.0
 -0%
5
INDIAN RUN
J: Ryan Sexton · T: Julie Camacho
13.0 ·market 8%
8%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +7%
6
INVICTUS GOLD
J: Cieren Fallon · T: Tom Clover
23.0 ·market 4%
7%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +64%
7
LAKERS
J: Rowan Scott · T: Kevin Philippart De Foy
10.0 ·market 10%
7%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -32%
8
OLIVER SHOW
J: Pat Cosgrave · T: George Boughey
8.0 ·market 12%
7%
12%
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -48%
9
MILFORD
J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) · T: Julie Camacho
17.0 ·market 6%
6%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -6%
10
PIETRO
J: Saffie Osborne · T: James Fanshawe
13.0 ·market 8%
5%
8%
13.0
 -33%
11
THE LIFFEY
J: Sean Levey · T: Hayley Burton
21.0 ·market 5%
5%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -0%
12
CRESTOFDISTINCTION
J: David Probert · T: Jack Channon
26.0 ·market 4%
3%
4%
26.0
 -18%
13
JUSTCALLMEPETE
J: Jack Dace(5) · T: Tony Carroll
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -11%
14
KNEBWORTH
J: Oliver Hoodless(7) · T: Richard Hughes
67.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +71%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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