Doncaster 14:30 — Value Analysis

Betfred City Of Doncaster Handicap Stakes

Sunday 13 September 2026

Other Handicap GD 7.0f Class 2 14 runners
Model's most likely WECHAAD 37% model chance · market 27%
★ Best value WECHAAD model 37% vs market 27% · +39%
Why the model rates WECHAAD top (37% chance)

Third in stronger company when he ran 64 days ago, Wechaad eases in grade, is among the highest-rated and suits the trip better than Flight Control. Ray Dawson is in form; the query is a first win at this level.

  • ✓ Preferred to Flight Control, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
  • ✓ One of the highest-rated in the race
  • ✓ Ray Dawson riding well, 14% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ The good is a question mark for it

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
WECHAAD ★ Top Rated
J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian
3.8 ·market 27%
37%
27%
3.8
▲ Edge increasing
 +39%
2
FLIGHT CONTROL
J: Rowan Scott · T: Kevin & Lauren Frost
10.0 ·market 10%
10%
10%
10.0
 +3%
3
IRONWILL
J: Sean Levey · T: Stuart Williams
9.0 ·market 11%
9%
11%
9.0
 -15%
4
LANGSTONE
J: Hector Crouch · T: Clive Cox
5.0 ·market 20%
9%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -57%
5
INVINCIBLE WILL
J: Callum Shepherd · T: Gavin Cromwell
17.0 ·market 6%
8%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +43%
6
SAMRA GREEN
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
21.0 ·market 5%
7%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +42%
7
MILITARY CODE
J: Toby Moore(7) · T: Charlie Appleby
17.0 ·market 6%
7%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +14%
8
ASPIRAL
J: Pierre-Louis Jamin · T: K. R. Burke
61.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
61.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +169%
9
INISHBEG
J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Kevin Ryan
29.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +22%
10
LION OF MALI
J: Saffie Osborne · T: James Fanshawe
13.0 ·market 8%
4%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -52%
11
INTENSE VISION
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Oli Rix
8.0 ·market 12%
4%
12%
8.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -72%
12
OURBREN
J: Oisin Murphy · T: J S Moore
51.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +48%
13
ZOOMING
J: Cieren Fallon · T: William Haggas
17.0 ·market 6%
3%
6%
17.0
 -52%
14
RAGING RAJ
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Michael Herrington
13.0 ·market 8%
3%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -65%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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