Cork 13:50 — Value Analysis

Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden

Sunday 30 August 2026

Maiden GTY 8.0f Class 0 15 runners
Model's most likely WILLIAMSBURG 23% model chance · market 20%
★ Best value DIAMONDS AND DAMES model 19% vs market 14% · +34%
Why the model rates WILLIAMSBURG top (23% chance)

Williamsburg holds a trip advantage over Diamonds And Dames and, with the mile ideal and 14 days' freshness in its favour, ran better than its recent result suggests.

  • ✓ Preferred to Diamonds And Dames, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Ran better than the result suggests last time
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 1m
  • ✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
WILLIAMSBURG ★ Top Rated
J: Luke McAteer · T: David Marnane
5.0 ·market 20%
23%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +17%
2
DIAMONDS AND DAMES
J: Shane Foley · T: Mrs John Harrington
7.0 ·market 14%
19%
14%
7.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +34%
3
MIRREN
J: Robbie Colgan · T: David Marnane
5.0 ·market 20%
16%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -18%
4
LUSTED
J: Andrew Slattery · T: Josh Halley
11.0 ·market 9%
13%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +41%
5
ROY BEAN
J: Colin Keane · T: Noel Meade
7.5 ·market 13%
12%
13%
7.5
 -13%
6
MISS CORNELIA
J: Gary Carroll · T: Joseph G Murphy
23.0 ·market 4%
10%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +141%
7
EIGHTEENTH SMILES
J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
8.0 ·market 12%
8%
12%
8.0
 -33%
8
IPPY
J: Nathan Crosse · T: John S O'Donoghue
17.0 ·market 6%
6%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +5%
9
RYANO BHINO
J: W J Lee · T: Henry De Bromhead
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +170%
10
TOGETHERWEAREFREE
J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien
10.0 ·market 10%
4%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -63%
11
GOLDEN OMEN
J: Adam Caffrey · T: Noel Meade
21.0 ·market 5%
3%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -37%
12
DANG THAI SON
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
9.0 ·market 11%
3%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -76%
13
FEEL THE STING
J: Ben Coen · T: A Oliver
41.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
41.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -4%
14
JISIR
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Denis Gerard Hogan
101.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +98%
15
PECKEDBYTHEPARROTT
J: Chris Hayes · T: William Durkan
41.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
41.0
 -30%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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