Goodwood 13:25 — Value Analysis

Tattersalls Ebf Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)

Sunday 30 August 2026

Novice Stakes SFT 8.0f Class 2 9 runners

Model's most likely FLIGHT TRACKER 33% model chance · market 29%

★ Best value FLIGHT TRACKER model 33% vs market 29% · +16%

Why the model rates FLIGHT TRACKER top (33% chance)

Rossa Ryan's 20% strike rate in the last two months and Beckett's 15% winners in the fortnight drive its case, with the mile ideal, but form figures leave plenty to find.

✓ Rossa Ryan riding well, 20% strike rate in the last two months
✓ Ralph Beckett's yard in form, 15% winners in the fortnight
✓ Bang on trip for it at 1m
✕ Form figures leave it plenty to find
✕ Little to like about its run over its last three runs

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	FLIGHT TRACKER ★ Top Rated J: Rossa Ryan · T: Ralph Beckett 3.5 ·market 29%	33%	29%	3.5 ▲ Edge increasing	+16%
—	NEW OXFORD NR J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Harry Charlton 4.0 ·market 25%	18%	25%	4.0	-27%	Withdrawn
2	GEORGE CROSS J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Owen Burrows 3.5 ·market 29%	16%	29%	3.5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-43%
3	SOMERTON J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon 6.0 ·market 17%	11%	17%	6.0	-37%
4	MISTER WHIPPY J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker 4.3 ·market 23%	8%	23%	4.3	-64%
5	ODELL J: Hector Crouch · T: David Menuisier 17.0 ·market 6%	5%	6%	17.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-8%
6	SEE THE MOUNTAIN J: David Probert · T: Andrew Balding 23.0 ·market 4%	5%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+24%
7	ROSSBEIGH J: Oisin Murphy · T: Barry Brennan 19.0 ·market 5%	5%	5%	19.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-4%
8	BUNDABERG J: David Egan · T: Gary & Josh Moore 34.0 ·market 3%	4%	3%	34.0	+48%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org