Bangorondee 17:12 — Value Analysis

Tuesday 8 September 2026

Novice Hcap Chase GD 17.5f Class 3 4 runners
Model's most likely CAPTAIN COOL 53% model chance · market 33%
★ Best value CAPTAIN COOL model 53% vs market 33% · +59%
Why the model rates CAPTAIN COOL top (53% chance)
  • ✓ Sean Quinlan riding well, 20% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 19 days since its last run
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ The good is a question mark for it

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance
Market
Implies
Avg Price Value
2
KRAK
J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton
2.6 ·market 38%
25%
38%
2.6
-33%
3
ROADLESSTRAVELLED
J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr. · T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill
3.2 ·market 31%
12%
31%
3.2
-61%
4
ICE IN THE VEINS
J: James Best · T: Sarah-Jayne Davies
11.0 ·market 9%
10%
9%
11.0
+15%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org