Redcar 13:51 — Value Analysis

Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap Stakes

Wednesday 9 September 2026

Other Handicap GD 7.0f Class 6 18 runners
Model's most likely HATAMOTO 19% model chance · market 18%
★ Best value HATAMOTO model 19% vs market 18% · +7%
Why the model rates HATAMOTO top (19% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Emery Down, 4lb better in at the weights
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✓ Tim Easterby readies first-timers, 5% with debutants
  • ✕ Tim Easterby's yard quiet lately, 9% in the last two months
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
HATAMOTO ★ Top Rated
J: David Allan · T: Tim Easterby
5.5 ·market 18%
19%
18%
5.5
 +7%
2
EMERY DOWN
J: Pat Cosgrave · T: John Ryan
6.5 ·market 15%
10%
15%
6.5
 -35%
3
ROUSHAM
J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Nigel Tinkler
11.0 ·market 9%
8%
9%
11.0
 -9%
4
SUN OF DOLLY
J: Conor Whiteley(5) · T: John Gallagher
10.0 ·market 10%
8%
10%
10.0
 -21%
5
THE CHILDE OF HALE
J: Hector Crouch · T: Ivan Furtado
8.5 ·market 12%
8%
12%
8.5
 -33%
6
TRAVIS
J: Oisin McSweeney · T: Geoffrey Harker
13.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
13.0
 -14%
7
LUMINOUS WARRIOR
J: Jason Hart · T: Christopher Kellett
6.5 ·market 15%
6%
15%
6.5
 -63%
8
MAYO COUNTY
J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) · T: Julie Camacho
15.0 ·market 7%
5%
7%
15.0
 -21%
9
BLEEP TEST
J: Harry Russell · T: Tim Easterby
41.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
41.0
 +53%
10
BLACK ROCK BEAUTY
J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
23.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
23.0
 -15%
11
CAMERA SHY
J: Sean Kirrane · T: Michael Dods
10.0 ·market 10%
4%
10%
10.0
 -65%
—
CAVALLO PAZZO NR
J: Shane Gray · T: Daragh Bourke
15.0 ·market 7%
3%
7%
15.0
 -54% Withdrawn
12
FINN IRONSIDE
J: Elle-May Croot(5) · T: Ivan Furtado
8.5 ·market 12%
3%
12%
8.5
 -76%
13
HEAD FOR FREEDOM
J: Shay Farmer(5) · T: Michael & David Easterby
17.0 ·market 6%
3%
6%
17.0
 -52%
14
SAILOR BATT
J: William Pyle · T: David & Nicola Barron
17.0 ·market 6%
2%
6%
17.0
 -58%
15
UNCERTAINTY
J: Andrew Elliott · T: Simon Whitaker
26.0 ·market 4%
2%
4%
26.0
 -43%
16
GWENS GIRL
J: Dougie Costello · T: Mark Walford
29.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
29.0
 -51%
17
SECRET TESTIMONY
J: P J McDonald · T: Declan Carroll
26.0 ·market 4%
2%
4%
26.0
 -60%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org