Doncaster 13:15 — Value Analysis
Betfred Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed Race)
Friday 11 September 2026
Ticks most boxes: 17lb better in with Varzi, well treated on official ratings, proven against this class and on the ground, and eases in grade after meeting a 102-rated field 35 days ago. Still relatively untested.
- ✓ Preferred to Varzi, 17lb better in at the weights
- ✓ Well treated on official ratings
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
NABATI
★ Top Rated
2.5
·market 40%
|
22% |
40% |
2.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-46% | |
| 2 |
VARZI
13.0
·market 8%
|
18% |
8% |
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+133% | |
| 3 |
ROCK MONTREAL
2.9
·market 35%
|
13% |
35% |
2.9
▲ Edge increasing
|
-63% | |
| 4 |
FORBIDDEN FIRE
5.5
·market 18%
|
11% |
18% |
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-39% | |
| 5 |
KACH ABOVE
67.0
·market 1%
|
9% |
1% |
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+533%market disagrees | |
| 6 |
DANDYMAN DAN
29.0
·market 3%
|
8% |
3% |
29.0
|
+132% | |
| 7 |
ENGRAVED
23.0
·market 4%
|
6% |
4% |
23.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+46% | |
| 8 |
MINKAAS
67.0
·market 1%
|
5% |
1% |
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+267% | |
| 9 |
VEGA KING
46.0
·market 2%
|
5% |
2% |
46.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+115% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org