Doncaster 13:50 — Value Analysis

Betfred Leger Legends Classified Stakes

Friday 11 September 2026

Classified Stakes GTS 8.0f Class 5 13 runners
Model's most likely ANTHROPOLOGIST 22% model chance · market 20%
★ Best value ANTHROPOLOGIST model 22% vs market 20% · +8%
Why the model rates ANTHROPOLOGIST top (22% chance)

Preferred to Caragio on trip suitability, among the best recent form figures here, with Herrington's yard at 16% winners in the last two months and race-fitness from a run 6 days ago; a class rise is the query.

  • ✓ Preferred to Caragio, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Michael Herrington's yard in form, 16% winners in the last two months
  • ✓ Was well-in against its last field on ratings
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ANTHROPOLOGIST ★ Top Rated
J: Sammy Jo Bell · T: Michael Herrington
5.0 ·market 20%
22%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +8%
2
CARAGIO
J: Adam Kirby · T: Adam Kirby
5.0 ·market 20%
15%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -27%
3
CELTIC CHARIOT
J: Adrian Nicholls · T: Kevin & Lauren Frost
9.0 ·market 11%
13%
11%
9.0
 +20%
4
WIELD
J: Joe Fanning · T: Joseph Parr
7.5 ·market 13%
12%
13%
7.5
 -7%
5
TOLSTOY
J: Niall P Madden · T: Brian Ellison
9.0 ·market 11%
11%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +2%
6
NYMAN
J: Andrew Tinkler · T: Roger Fell
8.0 ·market 12%
10%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -16%
7
BERRY CLEVER
J: Jamie Hamblett · T: Chris Dwyer
8.5 ·market 12%
9%
12%
8.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -20%
8
FEEL THE NEED
J: Jimmy McCarthy · T: Michael Herrington
17.0 ·market 6%
7%
6%
17.0
 +16%
9
LITTLE MISS INDIA
J: Gary Bardwell · T: James Owen
26.0 ·market 4%
5%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +34%
10
CLATFORD
J: Jimmy Quinn · T: Scott Dixon
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
 +139%
11
QUIET RESOLVE
J: Gay Kelleway · T: Alan Brown
15.0 ·market 7%
4%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -41%
12
BELLA BISBEE
J: Tom Scudamore · T: Scott Dixon
15.0 ·market 7%
3%
7%
15.0
 -51%
13
SERIOUS LOOK
J: Richard Patrick · T: Thomas Faulkner
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -5%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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