Doncaster 13:25 — Value Analysis

Land Of Lights Festival At Gullivers Handicap Stakes

Sunday 13 September 2026

Other Handicap GD 5.0f Class 3 16 runners
Model's most likely HYPNOTISED 32% model chance · market 18%
★ Best value HYPNOTISED model 32% vs market 18% · +76%
Why the model rates HYPNOTISED top (32% chance)

Ticks most boxes: consecutive seconds, some of the best recent form here and a proven winner at this level. Bang on trip at 5f and ran 29 days ago; only a lowly mark and an untested profile raise questions.

  • ✓ Preferred to Adrestia, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Among the best recent form figures in the race
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
HYPNOTISED ★ Top Rated
J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Harry Charlton
5.5 ·market 18%
32%
18%
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +76%
2
ADRESTIA
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Simon & Ed Crisford
6.0 ·market 17%
9%
17%
6.0
 -44%
3
ANCIENT STATE
J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Adam Kirby
7.0 ·market 14%
9%
14%
7.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -37%
4
CANONS HOUSE
J: Shane Gray · T: Michael & David Easterby
13.0 ·market 8%
8%
8%
13.0
 -2%
5
FORTIFICATION
J: Clifford Lee · T: Brian Ellison
12.0 ·market 8%
7%
8%
12.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -15%
6
EQUITY LAW
J: Sean Kirrane · T: Tim Easterby
21.0 ·market 5%
7%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +46%
7
JER BATT
J: Connor Beasley · T: David & Nicola Barron
10.0 ·market 10%
6%
10%
10.0
 -40%
8
MAELSTROM
J: Jack Dace(5) · T: Stuart Williams
7.5 ·market 13%
6%
13%
7.5
 -55%
9
THE MAN
J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer
7.0 ·market 14%
6%
14%
7.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -59%
10
WHEELS OF FIRE
J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon
15.0 ·market 7%
5%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -26%
11
HENRYTHENATE
J: Jack Nicholls(3) · T: Patrick Morris
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +19%
12
NOVELETTE
J: Harry Davies · T: Simon & Ed Crisford
41.0 ·market 2%
3%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +14%
13
CHANGEOFMIND
J: Zak Wheatley · T: Declan Carroll
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
 -6%
14
PADDYS DAY
J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Nigel Tinkler
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -19%
15
NOVELLO LAD
J: David Nolan · T: Paul Midgley
34.0 ·market 3%
2%
3%
34.0
 -21%
16
VENTURE CAPITAL
J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan
13.0 ·market 8%
2%
8%
13.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -71%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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