Pontefract 15:08: Value Analysis

Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

Thursday 17 September 2026

Other Handicap GD 12.0f Class 4 5 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value SEA LANTERN Our price 11/8 · Available 5/2 We make it 43% · the market says 29% · +50%
Why the model rates SEA LANTERN top (43% chance)

Boasts some of the best recent form in the race, handles good ground and has run well in better company, finishing third when last seen 141 days ago. Weight is the enemy, though, along with the long break.

  • ✓ Among the best recent form figures in the race
  • ✓ Handles the good well
  • ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance
Market
Implies
Avg Price Value
2
TRAVELING MAN
J: Mason Paetel(3) · T: Charlie Fellowes
Form: 93631 · D
5.0 ·market 20%
20%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
-1%
3
ALMA LATINA
J: Rhys Clutterbuck · T: Ralph Beckett
Form: 21334 · C
5.0 ·market 20%
15%
20%
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
-26%
4
MORBEH
J: Cieren Fallon · T: Roger Varian
Form: 42113 · D
3.0 ·market 33%
14%
33%
3.0
▼ Edge decreasing
-59%
5
LIGHTENING COMPANY
J: Harry Vigors(5) · T: Ben Haslam
Form: 11852 · CD
15.0 ·market 7%
9%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
+40%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org