Pontefract 15:08: Value Analysis
Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
Thursday 17 September 2026
Boasts some of the best recent form in the race, handles good ground and has run well in better company, finishing third when last seen 141 days ago. Weight is the enemy, though, along with the long break.
- ✓ Among the best recent form figures in the race
- ✓ Handles the good well
- ✓ Has run well in better company than today's
- ✕ Carries plenty of weight today
- ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SEA LANTERN
★ Top Rated
3.5
·market 29%
|
43% |
29% |
3.5
|
+50% | |
| 2 |
TRAVELING MAN
5.0
·market 20%
|
20% |
20% |
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-1% | |
| 3 |
ALMA LATINA
5.0
·market 20%
|
15% |
20% |
5.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-26% | |
| 4 |
MORBEH
3.0
·market 33%
|
14% |
33% |
3.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-59% | |
| 5 |
LIGHTENING COMPANY
15.0
·market 7%
|
9% |
7% |
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+40% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
1. Create a free account (no card needed).
2. Start your 7-day trial (card required). 7 days free, then £14.99/month.
See pricing ·
already a member? Sign in
EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org