Gowran Park 14:41: Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Saturday 19 September 2026

Maiden YLD 8.0f Class 0 8 runners
Our highest-rated NEVERMINDTHERAIN Our price 11/10 · Available 4/5 We make it 47% · the market says 55%
No standout value here. The model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates NEVERMINDTHERAIN top (47% chance)

Better than the bare result of a run 36 days ago, and the Lordan–O'Brien combination strikes at 50%, which puts this one at the head of affairs; the trip is the one query.

  • ✓ Ran better than the result suggests last time
  • ✓ W. M. Lordan and Aidan O'Brien win 50% together
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
NEVERMINDTHERAIN ★ Top Rated
J: W. M. Lordan · T: Aidan O'Brien
Form: 55338
1.8 ·market 55%
47%
55%
1.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -15%
2
ISLE OF CAPRI
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
Form: 63
3.2 ·market 31%
17%
31%
3.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -43%
3
CASTILIAN QUEEN
J: G. F. Carroll · T: G. M. Lyons
Form: 4
4.5 ·market 22%
11%
22%
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -48%
4
LUSTED
J: Andrew Slattery · T: Josh Halley
Form: 0576
23.0 ·market 4%
9%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +96%
5
HEREAFTER
J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: Aidan O'Brien
9.0 ·market 11%
8%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -24%
6
REAMS OF GOLD
J: W. J. Lee · T: Henry de Bromhead
23.0 ·market 4%
8%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +88%
7
UNREAL FRIEND
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Joseph G Murphy
9.0 ·market 11%
6%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -44%
8
VIOLET BE HUMBLE
J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Sean Davis
Form: 45
41.0 ·market 2%
6%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +130%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org