Ffos Las 14:38: Value Analysis

BETTING.BET New Betting Sites/EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Monday 21 September 2026

Maiden SFT 6.0f Class 5 7 runners
🏁 Result: Ongombo won (SP 2.62)
Our highest-rated★ Best value ONGOMBO Our price evens · Available 6/4 We make it 49% · the market says 40% · +24%
Why the model rates ONGOMBO top (49% chance)
  • ✓ Oisin Murphy and Charlie Fellowes win 33% together
  • ✓ Oisin Murphy riding well, 19% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ONGOMBO ★ Top Rated
J: Oisin Murphy · T: Charlie Fellowes
2.5 ·market 40%
49%
40%
2.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +24% Winner
2
GILDED CALL
J: Tom Marquand · T: Brian Meehan
5.5 ·market 18%
23%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 +25% 4th
3
REDDY
J: Callum Hutchinson · T: Eve Johnson Houghton
2.5 ·market 40%
15%
40%
2.5
 -62% 3rd
4
REECES CALL
J: Jack Doughty · T: Rod Millman
12.0 ·market 8%
11%
8%
12.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +27% 2nd
5
ANGELICA TEACH
J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Nikki Evans
151.0 ·market 1%
10%
1%
151.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +1373%market disagrees 6th
,
LITTLE TIN SOLDIER NR
J: David Probert · T: Jack Morland
41.0 ·market 2%
8%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +217% Withdrawn
6
SO SEXY ME
J: Darragh Keenan · T: Adam Kirby
21.0 ·market 5%
6%
5%
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +34% 5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org