Wolverhampton 17:07: Value Analysis
Download The At The Races App Nursery Handicap Stakes
Monday 21 September 2026 · result below
El Lambo (5/1) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning by a length. Tree Wizard (10/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Tree Wizard the likely winner mid-race (matched at 3.05 from 13.0 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Chianti, the 9/4 favourite, could manage only 6th. Our model's top pick LADY OF HAY (22%) finished 8th.
- ✓ Preferred to El Lambo, a proven winner at this class
- ✓ Andrew Balding's yard in form, 17% winners in the last two months
- ✓ Was well-in against its last field on ratings
- ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
- ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
LADY OF HAY
★ Top Rated
6.0
·market 17%
|
22% |
17% |
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+30% | 8th |
| 2 |
EL LAMBO
6.0
·market 17%
|
19% |
17% |
6.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+15% | Winner |
| , |
LAST DANDELION
NR
11.0
·market 9%
|
15% |
9% |
11.0
|
+60% | Withdrawn |
| 3 |
CALEF
6.5
·market 15%
|
13% |
15% |
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-18% | 3rd |
| 4 |
TIME AND EFFORT
12.0
·market 8%
|
11% |
8% |
12.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+35% | 4th |
| 5 |
CHIANTI
3.0
·market 33%
|
10% |
33% |
3.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-70% | 6th |
| 6 |
CEST LUI
12.0
·market 8%
|
7% |
8% |
12.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-16% | 5th |
| 7 |
MRS MOLE
26.0
·market 4%
|
6% |
4% |
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+66% | 9th |
| 8 |
ALPHA LEGEND
17.0
·market 6%
|
6% |
6% |
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-6% | 7th |
| 9 |
TREE WIZARD
12.0
·market 8%
|
4% |
8% |
12.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-50% | 2nd |
| , |
LOLA
NR
34.0
·market 3%
|
3% |
3% |
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+10% | Withdrawn |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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