Wolverhampton 18:12: Value Analysis

Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap Stakes (Div I)

Monday 21 September 2026 · result below

Other Handicap STD 7.0f Class 6 10 runners
🏁 Result: Barry The Worm won (SP 3.5)
Our highest-rated★ Best value CUBAN FIESTA Our price 9/4 · Available 7/2 We make it 30% · the market says 22% · +37%
How the race unfolded

Barry The Worm (5/2) came from off the pace to lead late, winning by a short head. Joud (13/2) filled second. The exchange briefly made Joud the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.86 from 8.6 pre-off) before he was pegged back — one for the notebook. Our model's top pick CUBAN FIESTA (30%) finished 3rd.

Why the model rates CUBAN FIESTA top (30% chance)
  • ✓ Preferred to Barry The Worm, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Has won over 7f before
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much
  • ✕ Unproven at this level

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CUBAN FIESTA ★ Top Rated
J: Jack Dace(5) · T: Gihan Arnolda
4.5 ·market 22%
30%
22%
4.5
 +37% 3rd
2
BARRY THE WORM
J: Alistair Rawlinson · T: Edward Smyth-Osbourne
3.5 ·market 29%
18%
29%
3.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -37% Winner
3
FASTER BEE
J: Gina Mangan · T: Fergal O'Brien
6.5 ·market 15%
11%
15%
6.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -29% 8th
4
MAURY
J: Georgia Dobie · T: Craig Benton
6.5 ·market 15%
10%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -33% 7th
5
BAGGIE BOY
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Tony Carroll
34.0 ·market 3%
8%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +158% 10th
6
JOUD
J: Cian Horgan(5) · T: Edward Bethell
7.5 ·market 13%
7%
13%
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -47% 2nd
7
TORTOLA
J: Robert Havlin · T: Alastair Ralph
11.0 ·market 9%
7%
9%
11.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -26% 4th
8
HORUS
J: Kieren Fox · T: Michael Attwater
17.0 ·market 6%
6%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -4% 6th
9
MY PREROGATIVE
J: Luke Morris · T: David Killahena & Graeme McPherson
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +141% 5th
10
CAPTAIN KINSELLA
J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: John Gallagher
34.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
34.0
 +33% 9th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org