Fontwell 14:47: Value Analysis

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

Tuesday 22 September 2026

Handicap Chase nan 19.5f Class 4 4 runners
🏁 Result: Tapley won (SP 3.5)
Our highest-rated★ Best value JET SMART Our price 11/10 · Available 7/2 We make it 49% · the market says 22% · +119%
Why the model rates JET SMART top (49% chance)

Preferred to Tapley, he is well treated on official ratings, has the ground in his favour and comes here off a second when running 18 days ago; only a modest effort three runs back and patchy consistency nag.

  • ✓ Preferred to Tapley, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Well suited by today's ground
  • ✕ Little to like about its run three runs back
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
JET SMART ★ Top Rated
J: Bryan Carver · T: Dean Summersby
Form: 54222 · D
4.5 ·market 22%
49%
22%
4.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +119% 3rd
2
TAPLEY
J: Caoilin Quinn · T: Gary & Josh Moore
Form: 23134 · CD
3.5 ·market 29%
21%
29%
3.5
 -26% Winner
3
LERMOOS LEGEND
J: Sean Bowen · T: Mickey Bowen
Form: 27322 · CD
3.5 ·market 29%
16%
29%
3.5
 -43% 2nd
4
AMERICAN LAND
J: Brendan Powell · T: Joe Tizzard
Form: 442P · D
3.2 ·market 31%
12%
31%
3.2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -60% 4th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org