Newcastle 17:45: Value Analysis

Mmb Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

Friday 25 September 2026

Novice Stakes STD 6.0f Class 4 5 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value ONE OF THE BOYS Our price 5/6 · Available 6/5 We make it 54% · the market says 45% · +18%
Why the model rates ONE OF THE BOYS top (54% chance)

Holds a strong record against this calibre of rival, a young improver with scope; little to like when it ran 41 days ago, and Jack Callan's 9% fortnight and stronger company today qualify it.

  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✕ Jack Callan cold lately, 9% in the fortnight
  • ✕ Little to like about its run last time

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
ONE OF THE BOYS ★ Top Rated
J: Jack Callan · T: Michael Bell
Form: 2334
2.2 ·market 45%
54%
45%
2.2
 +18%
2
JANORA
J: Shay Farmer(5) · T: Seb Spencer
Form: 64
6.0 ·market 17%
24%
17%
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +44%
3
BRASH
J: David Nolan · T: David & Nicola Barron
Form: 32422
3.5 ·market 29%
15%
29%
3.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -49%
4
WHATEVER BRUCE
J: Joanna Mason · T: Gemma Tutty
Form: 66
9.0 ·market 11%
11%
11%
9.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -2%
5
ELITE APPROACH
J: George Wood · T: Joey Ramsden
Form: 44
7.5 ·market 13%
9%
13%
7.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -33%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org