Brighton 14:05: Value Analysis

Matchbook Betting Exchange Supporting Uk Racing Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)

Monday 28 September 2026

Maiden GTF 7.0f Class 4 6 runners
Our highest-rated★ Best value RIVER NILE Our price evens · Available 11/8 We make it 51% · the market says 42% · +21%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: GALILEO STAR is the market favourite (1.8) but the model rates it only 9% vs the market's 55%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates RIVER NILE top (51% chance)

Ticks most boxes: fourth 11 days ago in stronger company, Balding's yard at 16% in the last two months, and the good to firm suits him best of these — preferred to All Shall Be Well, though his mark is modest.

  • ✓ Preferred to All Shall Be Well, better on the ground
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✓ Andrew Balding's yard in form, 16% winners in the last two months
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
RIVER NILE ★ Top Rated
J: Jason Watson · T: Andrew Balding
Form: 6334
2.4 ·market 42%
51%
42%
2.4
 +21%
2
ALL SHALL BE WELL
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Jack Jones
Form: 3
8.0 ·market 12%
15%
12%
8.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +17%
3
POOR RELATION
J: Sean Dylan Bowen · T: Ollie Sangster
Form: 23737
10.0 ·market 10%
14%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +41%
4
GALILEO STAR
J: Rossa Ryan · T: James Tate
1.8 ·market 55%
9%
55%
1.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -83%
5
IRISH SPRING
J: Dylan Hogan · T: Karen Jewell
Form: 6
101.0 ·market 1%
9%
1%
101.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +789%market disagrees
6
SAKURA IMPACT
J: Alice Bond(5) · T: Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque
Form: 3
41.0 ·market 2%
8%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +210%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org