Kempton 17:30: Value Analysis
Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Maiden Stakes (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Wednesday 30 September 2026
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: MUQARRABIN is the market favourite (2.2) but the model rates it only 5% vs the market's 44%. It may be beatable.
Solid claims across the board: three good runs, a win at this class and Fallon at 16% in the last two months, though the yard is out of sorts at 8% and a field of newcomers makes any judgement tentative.
- ✓ Preferred to Al Thara, better suited by the trip
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
- ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
ENCOUNTER
★ Top Rated
4.0
·market 25%
|
48% |
25% |
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+91% | |
| 2 |
AL THARA
11.0
·market 9%
|
7% |
9% |
11.0
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-25% | |
| 3 |
AMICO MIO
9.0
·market 11%
|
7% |
11% |
9.0
|
-40% | |
| 4 |
HIGHLAND FROST
201.0
·market 0%
|
6% |
0% |
201.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+1097%market disagrees | |
| 5 |
GYROSCOPE
51.0
·market 2%
|
6% |
2% |
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+193% | |
| 6 |
KINGDOM OF HEAVEN
251.0
·market 0%
|
6% |
0% |
251.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+1328%market disagrees | |
| 7 |
MUQARRABIN
2.2
·market 44%
|
5% |
44% |
2.2
|
-89% | |
| 8 |
NEHRO
29.0
·market 3%
|
4% |
3% |
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+30% | |
| 9 |
SELVAGE
34.0
·market 3%
|
4% |
3% |
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+40% | |
| 10 |
STELLAR MAX
21.0
·market 5%
|
4% |
5% |
21.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-18% | |
| 11 |
WOOTTON KING
5.5
·market 18%
|
4% |
18% |
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-79% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org