Southwell 14:00: Value Analysis

Gents Night Saturday 24th October Handicap Steeple Chase (gbb Race)

Tuesday 13 October 2026

Handicap Chase GD 26.0f Class 4 3 runners
🏁 Result: Mumford's Magic won (SP 6.5)
Our highest-rated LIMERICK LEADER Our price 10/11 · Available evens We make it 53% · the market says 50%
★ Best value MUMFORDS MAGIC Our price 9/2 · Available 11/2 We make it 19% · the market says 15% · +21%
Why the model rates LIMERICK LEADER top (53% chance)
  • ✓ Sean Bowen and Nick Scholfield win 40% together
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 1st
  • ✓ Bang on trip for it at 3m2f
  • ✕ Carries plenty of weight today
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
LIMERICK LEADER ★ Top Rated
J: Sean Bowen · T: Nick Scholfield
Form: 41121 · D
2.0 ·market 50%
53%
50%
2.0
 +5% ,
2
AXEL BLEUE
J: James Bowen · T: Mickey Bowen
Form: 31214
2.4 ·market 42%
29%
42%
2.4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -32% 2nd
3
MUMFORDS MAGIC
J: Tristan Durrell · T: Dan Skelton
Form: 2176
6.5 ·market 15%
19%
15%
6.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +21% Winner

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org