Ffos Las 15:30: Value Analysis
Adept GRP Cabinets Novices' Steeple Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race)
Wednesday 14 October 2026
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: TUTTI QUANTI is the market favourite (1.7) but the model rates it only 12% vs the market's 58%. It may be beatable.
Ground is ideal, he has won over 2m4f and both Skeltons are flying at 24% and 28% in the last two months, so he is preferred to Georges Lad; the rise in class and 187 days off are the queries.
- ✓ Preferred to Georges Lad, better on the ground
- ✓ Well suited by today's ground
- ✓ Has won over 2m4f before
- ✕ Raised in class today
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
CAPTAIN TEAGUE
★ Top Rated
4.5
·market 22%
|
61% |
22% |
4.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+175% | Winner |
| 2 |
GEORGES LAD
5.5
·market 18%
|
14% |
18% |
5.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
-24% | 3rd |
| 3 |
TAMARIND BAY
10.0
·market 10%
|
13% |
10% |
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+30% | , |
| 4 |
TUTTI QUANTI
1.7
·market 58%
|
12% |
58% |
1.7
|
-79% | 2nd |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org