Nottingham 13:19: Value Analysis
31st Oct Halloween Spooktacular Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Wednesday 14 October 2026
Solid claims across the board, having run well over the last three starts and in better company than this; a 70-day absence and patchy consistency are the only real quibbles.
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
- ✕ First run for 70 days, so fitness is a question
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
TROUBLESOME GUEST
★ Top Rated
3.5
·market 29%
|
48% |
29% |
3.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
+67% | 5th |
| 2 |
ENRICHED
3.2
·market 31%
|
13% |
31% |
3.2
|
-56% | Winner |
| 3 |
SHANIKO
6.0
·market 17%
|
11% |
17% |
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-31% | 4th |
| 4 |
BLAKES LASS
15.0
·market 7%
|
9% |
7% |
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+36% | 6th |
| 5 |
CHEVERE
3.5
·market 29%
|
7% |
29% |
3.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-75% | 2nd |
| 6 |
EAGLES ETERNAL
67.0
·market 1%
|
6% |
1% |
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+316%market disagrees | 7th |
| 7 |
VALENTINA BONITA
126.0
·market 1%
|
5% |
1% |
126.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
+520%market disagrees | 3rd |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
1. Create a free account (no card needed).
2. Start your 7-day trial (card required). 7 days free, then £14.99/month.
See pricing ·
already a member? Sign in
EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org