Punchestown 13:35: Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Academy Hurdle

Wednesday 14 October 2026

Other Hurdle GD 19.0f Class 0 6 runners
🏁 Result: Lunar Stride won (SP 3.5)
Our highest-rated LUNAR STRIDE Our price 3/1 · Available 2/1 We make it 26% · the market says 33%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: GREEN HERITAGE is the market favourite (2.5) but the model rates it only 14% vs the market's 40%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates LUNAR STRIDE top (26% chance)

Unraced and open to any amount of improvement, with the yard striking at 9% with its first-time-out runners, the pick of a field where there is barely any form to go on, so confidence is low.

  • ✓ Unraced, yard wins 9% with its first-time-out runners
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ No form to judge, genuine unknown

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
LUNAR STRIDE ★ Top Rated
J: Kevin Sexton · T: Gavin Cromwell
3.0 ·market 33%
26%
33%
3.0
 -23% Winner
2
RICH TREASURE
J: Darragh O'Keeffe · T: A D Leahy
5.5 ·market 18%
19%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 +3% 5th
3
WAY HORN
J: Mark McDonagh · T: Sean O O'Brien
13.0 ·market 8%
17%
8%
13.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +122% 6th
4
GREEN HERITAGE
J: J J Slevin · T: Stuart Crawford
2.5 ·market 40%
14%
40%
2.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -66% 3rd
5
HANSEL THE PURSE
J: Sean Flanagan · T: Michael Mulvany
10.0 ·market 10%
13%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +26% 4th
6
JUARILEO
J: Sarah Kavanagh(7) · T: Edward F Power
17.0 ·market 6%
12%
6%
17.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +108% 2nd
,
DUBLINIA NR
J: Jordan Gainford · T: Michael Mulvany
— ·market —
—
—
—
 — Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org