Hexham 14:01: Value Analysis
Download The At The Races App Mares' Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)
Tuesday 20 October 2026
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: BIGLESISBACK is the market favourite (2.1) but the model rates it only 13% vs the market's 48%. It may be beatable.
Ticks most boxes: three solid runs, 28 days freshening her up, and she eases in grade after facing notably stronger company. The Skelton pair strike at 30%, and we prefer her to Myluckymaker; the trip is the one doubt.
- ✓ Preferred to Myluckymaker, a proven winner at this class and better on the ground
- ✓ Harry Skelton riding well, 24% strike rate in the fortnight
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✕ Trip is a question mark
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
TRALEE GIRL
★ Top Rated
2.6
·market 38%
|
49% |
38% |
2.6
|
+28% | |
| 2 |
MYLUCKYMAKER
4.0
·market 25%
|
23% |
25% |
4.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-9% | |
| 3 |
BIGLESISBACK
2.1
·market 48%
|
13% |
48% |
2.1
|
-72% | |
| 4 |
MOIRA MY LOVE
67.0
·market 1%
|
8% |
1% |
67.0
|
+458%market disagrees | |
| 5 |
DARTMOUTH STAR
126.0
·market 1%
|
7% |
1% |
126.0
|
+781%market disagrees |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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