Kelso 14:10: Value Analysis
Clifford, Martin & Sarah Firth Memorial Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (Go North Forgive 'N Forget Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Saturday 24 October 2026
Beats most of these at this level and eases in grade from a field averaging 116 to 98, with the Russell & Scudamore yard striking at 19% in the fortnight; she was third when she ran 190 days ago.
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore's yard in form, 19% winners in the fortnight
- ✕ First run for 190 days, so fitness is a question
- ✕ The good is a question mark for it
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Avg Price | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SOCIETY SOLDIER
★ Top Rated
3.5
·market 29%
|
56% |
29% |
3.5
▲ Edge increasing
|
+97% | |
| 2 |
MALAYALAM
3.5
·market 29%
|
12% |
29% |
3.5
|
-57% | |
| 3 |
REALISATION
5.5
·market 18%
|
11% |
18% |
5.5
|
-37% | |
| 4 |
SUSPECTED
6.0
·market 17%
|
11% |
17% |
6.0
▲ Edge increasing
|
-33% | |
| 5 |
WEARELONGTERM
5.5
·market 18%
|
9% |
18% |
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-51% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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