Kempton 18:15: Value Analysis
Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Novice Stakes
Monday 26 October 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Preferred to Allaire, 6lb better in at the weights, and ticks most boxes: ran 25 days ago so arrives fresh, beats this class of rival, with David Egan striking at 14% in the last two months.
- ✓ Preferred to Allaire, 6lb better in at the weights
- ✓ Ideally fresh, 25 days since its last run
- ✓ David Egan riding well, 14% strike rate in the last two months
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
MALDIVES
★ Top Rated
5/2
·market 29%
|
30% |
29% |
5/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
+4% | |
| 2 |
LIAM MERA KAI
2/1
·market 33%
|
19% |
33% |
2/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-44% | |
| 3 |
ALLAIRE
4/1
·market 20%
|
17% |
20% |
4/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-17% | |
| 4 |
FLAGBEARER
4/1
·market 20%
|
11% |
20% |
4/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-45% | |
| 5 |
SAILOR SONG
8/1
·market 11%
|
8% |
11% |
8/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-29% | |
| 6 |
PERZAANEH
66/1
·market 1%
|
5% |
1% |
66/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+245% | |
| 7 |
BINTNASEEFA
28/1
·market 3%
|
5% |
3% |
28/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+31% | |
| 8 |
KATANA
100/1
·market 1%
|
4% |
1% |
100/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+284% | |
| 9 |
PETES SAKE
66/1
·market 1%
|
3% |
1% |
66/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+118% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
Opened this from X? Google sign-in may not work in X's browser, so use your email below or open this page in Safari or Chrome.
Continue with Google
Step 1: your account. Step 2: secure Stripe checkout, where your 7 days free start.
See pricing ·
already a member? Sign in
Days 1 to 7 are free. You're charged £14.99 when the 7 days end, unless you cancel before then. We'll email you 2 to 3 days before you're charged, and you can cancel any time from your account page.
Had a free trial before? You'll be charged £14.99 today.
New customers: 7 days free, then £14.99/month.
Card required. Your subscription renews automatically each month. Cancel through your account before the trial ends to avoid the first charge.
Continue to Stripe's secure checkout to enter your payment details and activate access. EdgeDigger does not see or store your card number.
EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org