Bangor-on-Dee 13:46: Value Analysis

Spooktacular Family Day Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race

Tuesday 27 October 2026 · result below

Handicap Hurdle GTS 23f Class 4 9 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Result: Aire Spray won (SP 15/2)

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Our highest-rated GLANCE OF GLORY Our price 3/1 · Available 3/1 We make it 25% · the market says 25%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

How the race unfolded

Aire Spray (15/2) produced the strongest finish in the race, winning by 1 length. Mr Mackay (13/2) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Mr Mackay the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.74 on Betfair, from 8.6 before the off) before he was pegged back, one for the notebook.

Why the model rates GLANCE OF GLORY top (25% chance)

Proven at this class, unlike Crystal Glance, and he won when he ran 24 days ago with a third before that, for a yard striking at 25%; ticks most boxes, though stronger company, the ground and weight are niggles.

✓ Preferred to Crystal Glance, better proven at this class
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Ran well two runs back
✕ Ground may not suit
✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	GLANCE OF GLORY ★ Top Rated J: Freddie Keighley · T: Martin Keighley Form: 4S831 3/1 ·market 25%	25%	25%	3/1	+1%	,
2	CRYSTAL GLANCE J: Ben Smith(6) · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero Form: 31FP2 · C 9/2 ·market 18%	19%	18%	9/2 ▲ Edge increasing	+2%	4th
3	HARD DEALT J: Elliott England(5) · T: Henry Daly Form: 27224 11/2 ·market 15%	11%	15%	11/2	-27%	5th
4	SPEED DAVIS J: Harry Brown(10) · T: Donald McCain Form: 11563 · CD 11/2 ·market 15%	10%	15%	11/2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-34%	3rd
5	AIRE SPRAY J: Oscar Palmer(6) · T: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith Form: 64215 · D 7/1 ·market 12%	9%	12%	7/1	-28%	Winner
6	MR MACKAY J: Toby McCain-Mitchell(3) · T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies 13/2 ·market 13%	8%	13%	13/2 ▲ Edge increasing	-40%	2nd
7	BUZZ ICECLEAR J: Tom Midgley · T: Mark Walford Form: 11386 12/1 ·market 8%	7%	8%	12/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-12%	6th
8	MOSTLY SUNNY J: Harry Atkins(3) · T: Dan Skelton Form: 44340 28/1 ·market 3%	6%	3%	28/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+70%	8th
9	COURT CIAN J: Murray Dodd · T: Stuart Edmunds D 12/1 ·market 8%	5%	8%	12/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-31%	7th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org