Bangor-on-Dee 15:46: Value Analysis

Bangor-On-Dee Handicap Steeple Chase

Tuesday 27 October 2026 · result below

Handicap Chase GTS 17½f Class 5 9 runners
What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Result: Air Apparent won (SP 10/1)

This race is complete. Explore the latest card next.

See today's races →
Our highest-rated INEDIT DAMOUR Our price 3/1 · Available 3/1 We make it 25% · the market says 25%
★ Best value FALCO DES PINS Our price 9/2 · Available 6/1 We make it 18% · the market says 14% · +25%
How the race unfolded

Air Apparent (10/1) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning by half a length. Inedit D'amour (3/1) filled second. Our model's top pick Inedit Damour (25%) finished 2nd.

Why the model rates INEDIT DAMOUR top (25% chance)
  • ✓ Harry Brown riding well, 17% strike rate in the fortnight
  • ✓ Well treated on official ratings
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance
Market
Implies
Typical odds Value
1
INEDIT DAMOUR ★ Top Rated
J: Harry Brown(7) · T: Donald McCain
Form: 15402
3/1 ·market 25%
25%
25%
3/1
▲ Edge increasing
+0% 2nd
3
AIR APPARENT
J: Paul O'Brien · T: Seamus Mullins
Form: 74530
9/1 ·market 10%
10%
10%
9/1
▲ Edge increasing
+3% Winner
4
LARISTOTE
J: Theo Gillard · T: Donald McCain
Form: 3743
4/1 ·market 20%
9%
20%
4/1
▼ Edge decreasing
-54% 5th
5
GRAIN TRADE
J: Benjamin Macey(5) · T: Billy Aprahamian
Form: 244F3
9/1 ·market 10%
9%
10%
9/1
▲ Edge increasing
-13% 7th
6
RIVIERA WALK
J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr. · T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill
Form: 4F1PU · D
11/1 ·market 8%
8%
8%
11/1
▲ Edge increasing
-3% ,
7
MASTERFIELD
J: Toby Wynne · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
Form: 453F3
8/1 ·market 11%
7%
11%
8/1
▼ Edge decreasing
-32% 3rd
8
KER DOUDAIRIES
J: Adam Wedge · T: Christian Williams
Form: 05P95
6/1 ·market 14%
7%
14%
6/1
▼ Edge decreasing
-51% ,
9
LOCQUIREC
J: Jack Tudor · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
Form: 66F6
12/1 ·market 8%
7%
8%
12/1
-15% 6th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org