Newcastle 12:56: Value Analysis
Border Minstrel Dog Friendly Pub Maiden Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier)
Tuesday 27 October 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Strong claims across the board: a proven winner at this class with a fine record against such rivals, and Gavin Sheehan, 21% in the fortnight, teams up with Snowden at 30%. The 230-day absence is the query.
- ✓ Gavin Sheehan riding well, 21% strike rate in the fortnight
- ✓ Gavin Sheehan and Jamie Snowden win 30% together
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ First run for 230 days, so fitness is a question
- ✕ Little to like about its run last time
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
WILDES LEGACY
★ Top Rated
2/5
·market 71%
|
40% |
71% |
2/5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-44% | |
| 2 |
MY MATE AJ
15/8
·market 35%
|
23% |
35% |
15/8
▲ Edge increasing
|
-32% | |
| 3 |
CHAMPAGNE POWDER
28/1
·market 3%
|
16% |
3% |
28/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+353%market disagrees | |
| 4 |
MACS MAX
50/1
·market 2%
|
9% |
2% |
50/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+383%market disagrees | |
| 5 |
CAPTAIN TED
66/1
·market 1%
|
7% |
1% |
66/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+375%market disagrees | |
| 6 |
COME ON JOHN
125/1
·market 1%
|
4% |
1% |
125/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+442%market disagrees |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org