Newcastle 14:31: Value Analysis
Sunday Lunch At The Border Minstrel Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase
Tuesday 27 October 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
This race is complete. Explore the latest card next.
See today's races →Sleedagh (9/2) found just enough on the line, winning by a head. Kent De Thaix (2/1) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Rocheval the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.71 on Betfair, from 4.4 before the off) before he was pegged back, one for the notebook. Kent De Thaix, the 2/1 favourite, could manage only 2nd. Our model's top pick Silver Hill (34%) finished 4th.
Strong claims across the board: a win when he last ran 223 days ago, two seconds before it, proven at this class, and Sheehan and Snowden combine at 30%. That layoff is the one real query.
- ✓ Gavin Sheehan riding well, 22% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Gavin Sheehan and Jamie Snowden win 30% together
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✕ First run for 223 days, so fitness is a question
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SILVER HILL
★ Top Rated
15/8
·market 35%
|
49% |
35% |
15/8
▲ Edge increasing
|
+40% | 4th |
| , |
DUNKERQUE
NR
—
·market —
|
— |
— |
—
|
— | Withdrawn |
| 2 |
KENT DE THAIX
2/1
·market 33%
|
20% |
33% |
2/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-39% | 2nd |
| 3 |
ROCHEVAL
10/3
·market 23%
|
16% |
23% |
10/3
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-32% | 3rd |
| 4 |
SLEEDAGH
5/1
·market 17%
|
15% |
17% |
5/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-7% | Winner |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org