Newton Abbot 14:51: Value Analysis
Passage House Hotel South Devon Gateway Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Qualifier)
Wednesday 28 October 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
This race is complete. Explore the latest card next.
See today's races →Paddockwood (8/1) picked them off one by one in the closing stages, winning by half a length. Eton Mes (9/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Eton Mes the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.67 on Betfair, from 11.0 before the off) before he was pegged back, one for the notebook. Our model's top pick Western Cross (21%) finished 4th.
Holds a strong record against this class of rival and ran well two runs back, ticking most boxes at a similar level; his win came 204 days ago, though, so fitness and the soft are questions.
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Ran well two runs back
- ✕ First run for 204 days, so fitness is a question
- ✕ The soft is a question mark for it
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
WESTERN CROSS
★ Top Rated
3/1
·market 25%
|
24% |
25% |
3/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-2% | 4th |
| 2 |
MARHABA PRINCE
7/2
·market 22%
|
20% |
22% |
7/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-8% | 8th |
| 3 |
ALL WELL AND GOOD
6/1
·market 14%
|
19% |
14% |
6/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+32% | 3rd |
| , |
GENERAL BRIAR
NR
—
·market —
|
— |
— |
—
|
— | Withdrawn |
| 4 |
ETON MES
8/1
·market 11%
|
9% |
11% |
8/1
|
-18% | 2nd |
| 5 |
PADDOCKWOOD
7/1
·market 12%
|
7% |
12% |
7/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-41% | Winner |
| 6 |
IN LIMBO
10/1
·market 9%
|
7% |
9% |
10/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-23% | 7th |
| 7 |
SIOUX FALLS
9/2
·market 18%
|
7% |
18% |
9/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-63% | 5th |
| 8 |
ROCK ON COWBOY
16/1
·market 6%
|
6% |
6% |
16/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+7% | 6th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org