Newton Abbot 15:51: Value Analysis
Sky Sports Racing Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase
Wednesday 28 October 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
This race is complete. Explore the latest card next.
See today's races →Mask Of Zorro (5/2) sat close to the pace before asserting, winning comfortably, by 4 lengths. Badbury Rings (15/8) filled second. Badbury Rings, the 15/8 favourite, could manage only 2nd.
Ticks most boxes: he handles the soft, holds a strong record against this grade and Conor O'Farrell is at 20% in the fortnight, while the fourth when he ran 21 days ago came in stronger company and is forgivable.
- ✓ Conor O'Farrell riding well, 20% strike rate in the fortnight
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Handles the soft well
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Little to like about its run last time
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| , |
FAIRYE FORTH
NR
—
·market —
|
— |
— |
—
|
— | Withdrawn |
| 1 |
BADBURY RINGS
★ Top Rated
7/4
·market 36%
|
26% |
36% |
7/4
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-27% | 2nd |
| 2 |
MASK OF ZORRO
5/2
·market 29%
|
25% |
29% |
5/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-11% | Winner |
| 3 |
WOODYTHEWOODPECKER
5/1
·market 17%
|
19% |
17% |
5/1
|
+14% | , |
| 4 |
NOT A LIGHT
4/1
·market 20%
|
16% |
20% |
4/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-21% | 3rd |
| 5 |
KICK UP A STORM
7/1
·market 12%
|
14% |
12% |
7/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+11% | 4th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org