Newton Abbot 16:21: Value Analysis

Thankyou & Farewell Dr. Tim Tilsley Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination)

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · result below

NH Flat SFT 17f Class 4 7 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Result: Par Avion won (SP 11/8)

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Our highest-rated PAR AVION Our price 10/3 · Available 6/5 We make it 24% · the market says 44%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

How the race unfolded

Par Avion (11/8) produced the strongest finish in the race, winning comfortably, by 3¼ lengths. Straw Merchant (7/1) chased him home. Our model made him its top pick at 21%.

Why the model rates PAR AVION top (24% chance)

Preferred to Storm Cracker, having won at this class and run well in better company, with 2m1f bang on; the worry is 244 days off and the yard out of sorts at 8% in the last two months.

✓ Preferred to Storm Cracker, better proven at this class
✓ Has run well in better company than today's
✓ Bang on trip for it at 2m1f
✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
✕ Bryan Carver cold lately, 9% in the last two months

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	PAR AVION ★ Top Rated J: Bryan Carver · T: Harry Fry Form: 42 6/5 ·market 44%	24%	44%	6/5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-47%	Winner
2	STORM CRACKER J: Rex Dingle · T: Ben Clarke Form: 92 14/1 ·market 7%	19%	7%	14/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+188%	3rd
3	THE GIFT SHOP J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton 11/4 ·market 27%	14%	27%	11/4 ▲ Edge increasing	-48%	6th
4	HOTTENTOTTA J: Jack Stenhouse(7) · T: Chris Honour Form: 8 150/1 ·market 1%	13%	1%	150/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+1801%market disagrees	7th
5	DE INOVATOR J: Sean Bowen · T: Olly Murphy 5/1 ·market 17%	12%	17%	5/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-27%	5th
6	STRAW MERCHANT J: Brendan Powell · T: Joe Tizzard 13/2 ·market 13%	10%	13%	13/2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-25%	2nd
7	MISS SPEC J: Fern O'Brien(5) · T: Fergal O'Brien 10/1 ·market 9%	9%	9%	10/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-5%	4th
,	HES HAPPY NR J: Ellis Collier(5) · T: Syd Hosie — ·market —	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn
,	LETS HAVE A DRINK NR J: Mr Henry Crow(7) · T: Alan Jones Form: 4 — ·market —	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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