Nottingham 12:46: Value Analysis
Racedays For £9 At Nottingham Racecourse Nursery Handicap Stakes
Wednesday 28 October 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Open to improvement and race-fit after running nine days ago, with a solid effort two runs back to build on, but the yard is out of sorts at 9% in the last two months and he rates below the best.
- ✓ Young improver with scope
- ✓ Race-fit, having run 9 days ago
- ✓ Ran well two runs back
- ✕ Eve Johnson Houghton's yard quiet lately, 9% in the last two months
- ✕ Rated below the best in this race
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| , |
DOWMAN
NR
—
·market —
|
— |
— |
—
|
— | Withdrawn |
| 1 |
CHIEF MINISTER
★ Top Rated
5/2
·market 29%
|
28% |
29% |
5/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-2% | 4th |
| 2 |
WOLFS GALLOP
9/4
·market 31%
|
20% |
31% |
9/4
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-35% | 3rd |
| 3 |
SUES LAST CHANCE
11/1
·market 8%
|
16% |
8% |
11/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+91% | 5th |
| 4 |
BEAR LEE
3/1
·market 25%
|
13% |
25% |
3/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-49% | 6th |
| 5 |
PENNY CAPRI
16/1
·market 6%
|
9% |
6% |
16/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+55% | 7th |
| 6 |
THE RESDEV ROMAN
11/1
·market 8%
|
9% |
8% |
11/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+5% | Winner |
| 7 |
DEFIANT DREAM
10/1
·market 9%
|
5% |
9% |
10/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-41% | 2nd |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org