Newmarket 16:05: Value Analysis

German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool Handicap Stakes

Friday 30 October 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GTS 9f Class 5 14 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Result: Church Wedding won (SP 4/1)

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Our highest-rated★ Best value AMUSED Our price 7/2 · Available 4/1 We make it 21% · the market says 20% · +6%

How the race unfolded

Church Wedding (4/1) produced the strongest finish in the race, winning by 1 length. Solanna (22/1) chased him home. Our model's top pick Amused (21%) finished 8th.

Why the model rates AMUSED top (21% chance)

Won just 8 days ago and comes here race-fit over a trip and going he has handled before, with another good effort three runs back; patchy consistency and Jim Boyle's 8% in the fortnight are the quibbles.

✓ Race-fit, having run 8 days ago
✓ Ran well three runs back
✕ Consistency has been a worry
✕ Jim Boyle's yard quiet lately, 8% in the fortnight

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	AMUSED ★ Top Rated J: Donagh Murphy(5) · T: Jim Boyle Form: 27681 · C 4/1 ·market 20%	21%	20%	4/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+6%	8th
2	ELOQUENCIA J: Robert Havlin · T: James Owen Form: 21434 3/1 ·market 25%	13%	25%	3/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-48%	4th
3	ARUNDEL J: David Probert · T: Ed Dunlop Form: 45313 11/2 ·market 15%	12%	15%	11/2 ▲ Edge increasing	-22%	3rd
4	CHURCH WEDDING J: Hector Crouch · T: Ralph Beckett Form: 375 9/2 ·market 18%	11%	18%	9/2 ▲ Edge increasing	-42%	Winner
5	GUEST HOUSE J: Callum Shepherd · T: George Margarson Form: 31415 12/1 ·market 8%	9%	8%	12/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+13%	9th
6	GOLDEN CIRCET J: Finley Marsh · T: Jim & Suzi Best Form: 56885 · D 22/1 ·market 4%	7%	4%	22/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+55%	12th
7	INDIA GOLD J: Clifford Lee · T: Gay Kelleway Form: 69270 33/1 ·market 3%	5%	3%	33/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+83%	11th
8	CITY OF GOD J: William Carson · T: Michael Attwater Form: 85887 66/1 ·market 1%	5%	1%	66/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	+234%	13th
9	ASTRONOMICA J: George Wood · T: Dr Jon Scargill Form: 84 16/1 ·market 6%	4%	6%	16/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-27%	7th
10	DINAH MYTE J: George Bass · T: John Gallagher Form: 17576 7/1 ·market 12%	4%	12%	7/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-70%	5th
11	FLAG CARRIER J: Neil Callan · T: Brian Toomey Form: 6P610 33/1 ·market 3%	3%	3%	33/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+1%	6th
12	SOLANNA J: Sean Levey · T: John Butler Form: 21653 22/1 ·market 4%	3%	4%	22/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-32%	2nd
13	POETS DAWN J: Sean Kirrane · T: Tim Easterby Form: 79300 · D 18/1 ·market 5%	2%	5%	18/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-61%	10th
14	HEERS SADIE J: Warren Fentiman(3) · T: Julia & Shelley Birkett Form: 21805 80/1 ·market 1%	2%	1%	80/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+24%	14th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org