Ascot 15:10: Value Analysis
1st Class Logistics Novices' Hurdle Race
Saturday 31 October 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
This race is complete. Explore the latest card next.
See today's races →⚠ Vulnerable favourite: SPORTINGSILVERMINE is the market favourite (7/4) but the model rates it only 21% vs the market's 36%. It may be beatable.
Babs (11/4) was dropped out early before picking his rivals off, winning comfortably, by 4¾ lengths. No Way Jay (7/4) filled second. Sportingsilvermine, the 13/8 favourite, could manage only 3rd. Our model made him its top pick at 44%.
Won when last seen 43 days ago and has been mixing it at a higher level, with Kielan Woods (20% in the fortnight) and Henry Oliver combining at 25%. Preferred to Sportingsilvermine, a proven winner at this class.
- ✓ Preferred to Sportingsilvermine, a proven winner at this class
- ✓ Kielan Woods riding well, 20% strike rate in the fortnight
- ✓ Kielan Woods and Henry Oliver win 25% together
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
BABS
★ Top Rated
11/4
·market 27%
|
44% |
27% |
11/4
|
+63% | Winner |
| 2 |
SPORTINGSILVERMINE
7/4
·market 36%
|
21% |
36% |
7/4
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-42% | 3rd |
| 3 |
NO WAY JAY
7/4
·market 36%
|
16% |
36% |
7/4
▲ Edge increasing
|
-57% | 2nd |
| 4 |
MASTERIUS
10/1
·market 9%
|
11% |
9% |
10/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+21% | 4th |
| 5 |
SEVEN AIRS
40/1
·market 2%
|
9% |
2% |
40/1
|
+252% | 5th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org