Ayr 13:53: Value Analysis

United Council Of Racecourse Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Qualifier)

Saturday 31 October 2026 · result below

Handicap Hurdle GTS 24½f Class 3 7 runners
What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Result: The G Wizard won (SP 6/4)

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Our highest-rated★ Best value BLUE LAS Our price 11/4 · Available 13/2 We make it 27% · the market says 13% · +103%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: THE G WIZARD is the market favourite (6/4) but the model rates it only 10% vs the market's 40%. It may be beatable.

How the race unfolded

The G Wizard (3/2) was simply too strong for these, winning comfortably, by 5 lengths. Serious Chat (9/1) filled second. The exchange briefly made Blue Las the likely winner mid-race (matched at 3.10 on Betfair, from 9.6 before the off) before he was pegged back, one for the notebook. Our model's top pick Blue Las (27%) finished 4th.

Why the model rates BLUE LAS top (27% chance)

Won last time and drops in grade from stronger company, well treated on official ratings, better suited by the trip than Eagles Reprieve, with Dylan Johnston and Neil Mulholland 38% together. The 253-day absence and patchy consistency are the queries.

  • ✓ Preferred to Eagles Reprieve, better suited by the trip
  • ✓ Ran well last time, finished 1st
  • ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ First run for 253 days, so fitness is a question

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Typical odds Value
1
BLUE LAS ★ Top Rated
J: Dylan Johnston · T: Neil Mulholland
Form: U211 · D
13/2 ·market 13%
27%
13%
13/2
▲ Edge increasing
 +103% 4th
2
EAGLES REPRIEVE
J: Jack Power(5) · T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
Form: 2121P
4/1 ·market 20%
17%
20%
4/1
▲ Edge increasing
 -15% 3rd
3
KNOMOREDIAMONDS
J: Patrick Wadge · T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore
Form: U2431 · C
3/1 ·market 25%
15%
25%
3/1
▼ Edge decreasing
 -40% 5th
4
LOCH CUAN
J: Jordan Gainford · T: Gordon Elliott
Form: 2211P
14/1 ·market 7%
14%
7%
14/1
▲ Edge increasing
 +106% 6th
5
SERIOUS CHAT
J: Theo Gillard · T: Donald McCain
Form: 72103 · D
9/1 ·market 10%
14%
10%
9/1
▲ Edge increasing
 +37% 2nd
6
THE G WIZARD
J: Bruce Lynn · T: N. W. Alexander
Form: 22393
6/4 ·market 40%
10%
40%
6/4
▼ Edge decreasing
 -76% Winner
7
AN MHI
J: Derek Fox · T: William Young Jnr
125/1 ·market 1%
4%
1%
125/1
▲ Edge increasing
 +404%market disagrees ,

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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