Down Royal 15:50: Value Analysis
Racing Post Steeplechase (Grade 2)
Saturday 31 October 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Top-rated of these and preferred to Kala Conti despite giving 11lb, with a 2m4f win, three solid runs behind him and the O'Keeffe/de Bromhead 20% strike rate; the yielding and 205 days off are the quibbles.
- ✓ Preferred to Kala Conti despite giving 11lb, better suited by the trip
- ✓ Darragh O'Keeffe and Henry de Bromhead win 20% together
- ✓ Has won over 2m4f before
- ✕ The yielding is a question mark for it
- ✕ Raised in class today
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
KOKTAIL DIVIN
★ Top Rated
10/11
·market 52%
|
49% |
52% |
10/11
|
-6% | |
| 2 |
KALA CONTI
11/4
·market 27%
|
17% |
27% |
11/4
|
-37% | |
| 3 |
JACOBS LADDER
4/1
·market 20%
|
10% |
20% |
4/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-50% | |
| 4 |
BREAK MY SOUL
15/2
·market 12%
|
9% |
12% |
15/2
|
-24% | |
| 5 |
HERJA
66/1
·market 1%
|
7% |
1% |
66/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+380%market disagrees | |
| 6 |
MIC DROP
66/1
·market 1%
|
4% |
1% |
66/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+199% | |
| 7 |
STRETCHEMOUT
200/1
·market 0%
|
4% |
0% |
200/1
|
+630%market disagrees |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org