Curragh 14:37: Value Analysis

QuinnBet Loughbrown Stakes (Group 3)

Sunday 1 November 2026 · result below

Group 3 SFT 16½f Class 1 11 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Result: Amelia Earhart won (SP 2/1)

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Our highest-rated AMELIA EARHART Our price 11/4 · Available 2/1 We make it 27% · the market says 33%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

How the race unfolded

Amelia Earhart (2/1) came from off the pace to lead late, winning by 1¼ lengths. Abbotsford (11/2) chased him home. The exchange briefly made Abbotsford the likely winner mid-race (matched at 1.44 on Betfair, from 7.4 before the off) before he was pegged back, one for the notebook. Our model made him its top pick at 27%.

Why the model rates AMELIA EARHART top (27% chance)

Preferred to Abbotsford at 11lb better terms, among the highest-rated here and easing in grade after stronger company, with the benefit of a run 7 days ago. Gavin Ryan's 3% in the last two months is the query.

✓ Preferred to Abbotsford, 11lb better in at the weights and a proven winner at this class
✓ One of the highest-rated in the race
✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
✕ Gavin Ryan cold lately, 3% in the last two months
✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	AMELIA EARHART ★ Top Rated J: Gavin Ryan · T: Aidan O'Brien Form: 55236 2/1 ·market 33%	27%	33%	2/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-20%	Winner
2	ABBOTSFORD J: Chris Hayes · T: D K Weld Form: 21721 · D 11/2 ·market 15%	16%	15%	11/2 ▼ Edge decreasing	+3%	2nd
3	ASAKIR J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh Form: 3127 3/1 ·market 25%	12%	25%	3/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-52%	8th
4	CHALLY CHUTE J: Donagh O'Connor · T: Ross O'Sullivan Form: 21251 · CD 15/2 ·market 12%	10%	12%	15/2 ▲ Edge increasing	-11%	7th
5	SNAPRETEND J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Form: 64881 10/1 ·market 9%	9%	9%	10/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-0%	4th
6	MARAZION J: Nathan Crosse · T: Mrs J. Harrington Form: 12665 28/1 ·market 3%	7%	3%	28/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+112%	9th
7	ABSURDE J: W. J. Lee · T: W. P. Mullins Form: 02702 · D 22/1 ·market 4%	6%	4%	22/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+37%	11th
8	ENDLESS VICTORY J: G. F. Carroll · T: W. P. Mullins Form: 72 20/1 ·market 5%	4%	5%	20/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-20%	10th
9	CHASING PARADISE J: N G McCullagh · T: J. P. Murtagh Form: 21460 · C 80/1 ·market 1%	3%	1%	80/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+181%	5th
10	SKY CAPTAIN J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Form: 22668 9/1 ·market 10%	3%	10%	9/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-71%	6th
11	GALILEO DAME J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Form: 03337 · D 22/1 ·market 4%	3%	4%	22/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-42%	3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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