Plumpton 16:00: Value Analysis
Final Fence Open 30th November Handicap Hurdle Race
Monday 2 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
This race is complete. Explore the latest card next.
See today's races →Keno Black (9/4) produced the strongest finish in the race, winning in a rout, 6½ lengths clear of the second. Everyonesgame (25/1) chased him home. The Boss Bear, the 15/8 favourite, could manage only 4th. Our model's top pick The Boss Bear (24%) finished 4th.
Plenty to like here: nicely in at the weights, a strong record against this class, and he eases in grade after running in stronger company. Two eighths and a 210-day absence are the reservations, with the good unproven.
- ✓ Well treated on official ratings
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
- ✕ Little to like about its run last time
- ✕ The good is a question mark for it
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
THE BOSS BEAR
★ Top Rated
15/8
·market 35%
|
24% |
35% |
15/8
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-30% | 4th |
| 2 |
KENO BLACK
5/2
·market 29%
|
22% |
29% |
5/2
|
-22% | Winner |
| 3 |
COASTAL COMMAND
8/1
·market 11%
|
13% |
11% |
8/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+22% | , |
| 4 |
EVERYONESGAME
22/1
·market 4%
|
12% |
4% |
22/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+179% | 2nd |
| 5 |
CALME OLYMPIEN
15/2
·market 12%
|
12% |
12% |
15/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
+1% | 6th |
| 6 |
LOW EXPECTATIONS
4/1
·market 20%
|
9% |
20% |
4/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-53% | 3rd |
| 7 |
KANDOR
28/1
·market 3%
|
7% |
3% |
28/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+113% | 5th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org