Wolverhampton 18:00: Value Analysis
AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Nursery Handicap Stakes
Monday 2 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
This race is complete. Explore the latest card next.
See today's races →Dadawada (33/1) produced the strongest finish in the race, winning by three-quarters of a length. Calef (3/1) chased him home. Our model's top pick Fancied Angel (17%) finished 5th.
Plenty to like across the board: well treated, a strong record against this class and Adam Kirby's yard at 14% in the last two months. Eases in company from a 67-rated field 20 days ago, if still lightly tested.
- ✓ Well treated on official ratings
- ✓ Adam Kirby's yard in form, 14% winners in the last two months
- ✓ Ran well three runs back
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FANCIED ANGEL
★ Top Rated
7/1
·market 12%
|
17% |
12% |
7/1
|
+39% | 5th |
| 2 |
PENNY CAPRI
28/1
·market 3%
|
15% |
3% |
28/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+334%market disagrees | 8th |
| 3 |
CALEF
3/1
·market 25%
|
15% |
25% |
3/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-42% | 2nd |
| 4 |
CAVAN LADY
10/3
·market 23%
|
12% |
23% |
10/3
▲ Edge increasing
|
-50% | 3rd |
| 5 |
PAST PASSION
11/4
·market 27%
|
11% |
27% |
11/4
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-60% | 6th |
| 6 |
HAVANA GREY STAR
12/1
·market 8%
|
9% |
8% |
12/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+23% | 7th |
| 7 |
CARROW ROAD
33/1
·market 3%
|
6% |
3% |
33/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+114% | 10th |
| 8 |
MOLLISHA
12/1
·market 8%
|
6% |
8% |
12/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-23% | 11th |
| 9 |
AGENT ROSE
18/1
·market 5%
|
4% |
5% |
18/1
|
-27% | 4th |
| 10 |
RICKYS ROCKET
18/1
·market 5%
|
3% |
5% |
18/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-41% | 9th |
| 11 |
DADAWADA
33/1
·market 3%
|
2% |
3% |
33/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-31% | Winner |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org