Fairyhouse 12:00: Value Analysis
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Steeplechase
Tuesday 3 November 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Ticks most boxes here: spot on at 3m, a record at this level that stands out, and Darragh O'Keeffe in good heart at 15% in the last two months. Eases in grade from stronger company, though consistency nags.
- ✓ Darragh O'Keeffe riding well, 15% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Bang on trip for it at 3m
- ✓ Record at this level stands out
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SOME SONG
★ Top Rated
6/4
·market 40%
|
24% |
40% |
6/4
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-40% | |
| 2 |
SPECULATEUR
4/1
·market 20%
|
22% |
20% |
4/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+12% | |
| 3 |
CAHER ROES DEN
4/1
·market 20%
|
21% |
20% |
4/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+5% | |
| , |
OUR SOLDIER
NR
—
·market —
|
— |
— |
—
|
— | Withdrawn |
| 4 |
JOLIE JEWEL
11/2
·market 15%
|
12% |
15% |
11/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-21% | |
| 5 |
ROSIES WINGS
8/1
·market 11%
|
10% |
11% |
8/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-11% | |
| , |
CHASE THE MOON
NR
—
·market —
|
— |
— |
—
|
— | Withdrawn |
| 6 |
MOSSY WAY
20/1
·market 5%
|
6% |
5% |
20/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+23% | |
| 7 |
LOOK SPORT
33/1
·market 3%
|
5% |
3% |
33/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+59% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
Opened this from X? Google sign-in may not work in X's browser, so use your email below or open this page in Safari or Chrome.
Continue with Google
Step 1: your account. Step 2: secure Stripe checkout, where your 7 days free start.
See pricing ·
already a member? Sign in
Days 1 to 7 are free. You're charged £14.99 when the 7 days end, unless you cancel before then. We'll email you 2 to 3 days before you're charged, and you can cancel any time from your account page.
Had a free trial before? You'll be charged £14.99 today.
New customers: 7 days free, then £14.99/month.
Card required. Your subscription renews automatically each month. Cancel through your account before the trial ends to avoid the first charge.
Continue to Stripe's secure checkout to enter your payment details and activate access. EdgeDigger does not see or store your card number.
EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org