Fairyhouse 12:35: Value Analysis

Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Steeplechase

Tuesday 3 November 2026

Handicap Chase GD 24½f Class 0 7 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Our highest-rated CEROC Our price 10/3 · Available 10/3 We make it 24% · the market says 23%

★ Best value SCHIEHALLION Our price 10/3 · Available 9/2 We make it 23% · the market says 18% · +28%

Why the model rates CEROC top (24% chance)

✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
✕ Carries plenty of weight today
✕ Eoin Staples and A. Slattery have a poor record together, 0% winners

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	CEROC ★ Top Rated J: Eoin Staples(2) · T: A. Slattery Form: 2P132 · D 10/3 ·market 23%	24%	23%	10/3	+3%
2	SCHIEHALLION J: Alix Balfe(4) · T: Dermot A McLoughlin Form: 5P041 9/2 ·market 18%	23%	18%	9/2 ▲ Edge increasing	+28%
3	AD CAELUM J: Alan O'Sullivan(2) · T: John Patrick Ryan Form: PP5P4 · D 9/1 ·market 10%	14%	10%	9/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	+45%
4	MISTYBURN J: Mr R Sugrue(4) · T: P J Rothwell Form: 16632 · D 10/3 ·market 23%	14%	23%	10/3 ▼ Edge decreasing	-38%
5	HIT THE FRAME J: Patrick M O'Brien · T: J P Flavin Form: F74U9 · D 7/1 ·market 12%	9%	12%	7/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-27%
6	URBS INTACTA MANET J: Jordan Canavan(4) · T: J P Flavin Form: 60883 7/2 ·market 22%	8%	22%	7/2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-64%
7	ANDYOURBIRDCANSING J: Michael Kenneally · T: John Patrick Ryan Form: 10017 16/1 ·market 6%	7%	6%	16/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+16%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

That is one of 36 races today. 35 races are still to run today, all rated. A trial opens every one, plus every UK and Irish race from tomorrow on. Seven days free, nothing charged today. Founder price £14.99 a month, locked for life. 50 founder places, 28 taken.

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See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org