Curragh 13:45 — Value Analysis

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bold Lad Sprint Handicap

Sunday 13 September 2026

Other Handicap YLD 6.0f Class 0 26 runners
Model's most likely HEADMASTER 12% model chance · market 6%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates HEADMASTER top (12% chance)

Open to plenty more improvement and fresh after running 35 days ago, with an earlier win and second showing real ability; a poor effort two runs back and Edward Lynam's yard at 6% in the last two months are the caveats.

  • ✓ Young improver with scope
  • ✓ Ideally fresh - 35 days since its last run
  • ✕ Edward Lynam's yard quiet lately, 6% in the last two months
  • ✕ Little to like about its run two runs back

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
HEADMASTER ★ Top Rated
J: J M Sheridan · T: Edward Lynam
17.0 ·market 6%
12%
6%
17.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +96%
2
SIR LES PATTERSON
J: Chris Hayes · T: Stephen Thorne
26.0 ·market 4%
10%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +170%
3
SONDAD
J: Joanna Mason · T: Michael & David Easterby
5.0 ·market 20%
10%
20%
5.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -50%
4
ROSIE FRITH
J: Paddy Harnett(3) · T: Patrick Magee
41.0 ·market 2%
8%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +218%
5
AMIATA
J: Nicola Burns(5) · T: G M Lyons
34.0 ·market 3%
6%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +94%
6
BEAR ON THE RUN
J: Shane Foley · T: Daniel James Murphy
9.2 ·market 11%
5%
11%
9.2
 -50%
7
CHICAGO POPE
J: Jamie Powell · T: J P Murtagh
12.0 ·market 8%
5%
8%
12.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -41%
8
DMANIAC
J: Wayne Lordan · T: Martin Hassett
13.0 ·market 8%
5%
8%
13.0
 -40%
9
GENESIS
J: Wesley Joyce · T: Michael Mulvany
26.0 ·market 4%
4%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +12%
10
KEKE
J: Reese Holohan · T: Edward Lynam
11.0 ·market 9%
4%
9%
11.0
 -56%
11
OCEANS BREATH
J: Colin Keane · T: G M Lyons
29.0 ·market 3%
4%
3%
29.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +13%
12
COUL ANGEL
J: Tom Marquand · T: Michael Appleby
5.5 ·market 18%
3%
18%
5.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -84%
13
RED EVOLUTION
J: Rory Cleary · T: M D O'Callaghan
26.0 ·market 4%
3%
4%
26.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -31%
14
DARK ACE
J: Adam Caffrey · T: Adrian McGuinness
15.0 ·market 7%
3%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -61%
15
STAYSOUND SUSIE
J: Jimmy Dalton(7) · T: Andrew Slattery
34.0 ·market 3%
3%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -13%
16
TOYOTOMI
J: Daniel Tudhope · T: David O'Meara
23.0 ·market 4%
2%
4%
23.0
 -46%
17
UNIQUE JOURNEY
J: Ben Coen · T: Daniel James Murphy
23.0 ·market 4%
2%
4%
23.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -52%
18
LOHOOBB
J: Julian Pietropaolo(7) · T: M C Grassick
81.0 ·market 1%
2%
1%
81.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +38%
19
THE PIPERS CALL
J: Nathan Crosse · T: Daniel McLoughlin
41.0 ·market 2%
2%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -36%
20
I BID YOU AJOU
J: Gavin Ryan · T: Mark Fahey
41.0 ·market 2%
1%
2%
41.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -52%
21
SOMMELIER
J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy(7) · T: Kieran P Cotter
101.0 ·market 1%
1%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +12%
22
STRIKE RED
J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Richard & Peter Fahey
26.0 ·market 4%
1%
4%
26.0
 -72%
23
THUNDERBEAR
J: Jack Kearney(3) · T: Stephen Thorne
51.0 ·market 2%
1%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -50%
24
THE HIGHWAY RAT
J: W J Lee · T: A Oliver
41.0 ·market 2%
1%
2%
41.0
 -62%
25
DARK THIRTY
J: Sam Coen · T: John & Sean Quinn
15.0 ·market 7%
1%
7%
15.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -89%
26
TANGO FLARE
J: Luke McAteer · T: Patrick T Foley
23.0 ·market 4%
1%
4%
23.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -85%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

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