Doncaster 13:50 — Value Analysis

Weatherbys £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes (GBB Race)

Thursday 10 September 2026

Unclassified GTS 6.5f Class 2 17 runners

Model's most likely NIGHT IN VEGAS 21% model chance · market 45%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates NIGHT IN VEGAS top (21% chance)

Preferred to Satellite Of Love on 18lb better terms, with a record at this level that stands out, three wins in his last five starts and a win 19 days ago; stronger company at 89 is the ask.

✓ Preferred to Satellite Of Love, 18lb better in at the weights
✓ Record at this level stands out
✓ Ran well three runs back
✕ Consistency has been a worry
✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	NIGHT IN VEGAS ★ Top Rated J: Charles Bishop · T: Eve Johnson Houghton 2.2 ·market 45%	21%	45%	2.2	-53%
2	SATELLITE OF LOVE J: Rossa Ryan · T: Clive Cox 11.0 ·market 9%	14%	9%	11.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+52%
3	SEVEN NATION ARMY J: David Probert · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien 12.0 ·market 8%	12%	8%	12.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+49%
4	THE DANCING PIRATE J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding 13.0 ·market 8%	12%	8%	13.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+51%
5	ZIGAZIG AH J: Saffie Osborne · T: Richard Spencer 9.5 ·market 11%	11%	11%	9.5	-0%
6	GOD GIVEN TALENT J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas 7.0 ·market 14%	9%	14%	7.0 ▼ Edge decreasing	-38%
7	ALFA HOODINI J: Marco Ghiani · T: Ivan Furtado 201.0 ·market 0%	6%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+1042%market disagrees
8	STARDOM GLORY J: James Doyle · T: Hugo Palmer 21.0 ·market 5%	5%	5%	21.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+11%
9	BLAZING INFERNO J: Daniel Tudhope · T: Edward Bethell 23.0 ·market 4%	5%	4%	23.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+18%
10	ICY MOON J: Tom Eaves · T: Ivan Furtado 201.0 ·market 0%	4%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+743%market disagrees
11	A BEAR AFFAIR J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon 21.0 ·market 5%	4%	5%	21.0	-26%
12	BACKMEIFYOUCAN J: Luke Morris · T: Ivan Furtado 201.0 ·market 0%	3%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+533%market disagrees
13	DORIGO J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan 12.0 ·market 8%	3%	8%	12.0	-65%
14	MITHAALY J: William Buick · T: George Boughey 17.0 ·market 6%	3%	6%	17.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-54%
15	ONGOMBO J: Lewis Edmunds · T: Charlie Fellowes 201.0 ·market 0%	2%	0%	201.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+397%market disagrees
16	SECRET SOCIETY J: Callum Rodriguez · T: Clive Cox 67.0 ·market 1%	2%	1%	67.0 ▲ Edge increasing	+44%
17	SOVEREIGN GLORY J: Oisin Orr · T: Charles Hills 41.0 ·market 2%	2%	2%	41.0 ▲ Edge increasing	-17%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

That is one of 37 races today. You can read 3 of them free. A trial opens the other 34 the same way, and every UK and Irish race tomorrow and after, for only £14.99 a month as a founder member, locked for life, against £24.99 a month once the founder places go. Seven days free, nothing charged today. Founder pricing is locked for life, including when it goes up for everyone joining after you.

Continue with Google

or use your email

Free account first, no card needed · see pricing · already a member? Sign in

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org