Redcar 13:21 — Value Analysis

Racing TV Free Trial Starts Tomorrow EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Wednesday 9 September 2026

Novice Stakes GD 6.0f Class 4 9 runners

Model's most likely BENBECULA 23% model chance · market 22%

No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.

Why the model rates BENBECULA top (23% chance)

✓ Preferred to Kirton Angel, a proven winner at this class
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Ran better than the result suggests last time
✕ Kevin Ryan's yard quiet lately, 7% in the last two months
✕ Raised in class today

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Avg Price	Value
1	BENBECULA ★ Top Rated J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan 4.5 ·market 22%	23%	22%	4.5	+2%
2	KIRTON ANGEL J: Cam Hardie · T: Richard & Peter Fahey 3.0 ·market 33%	17%	33%	3.0	-50%
3	PULSE OF FIRE J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Ed Walker 7.5 ·market 13%	14%	13%	7.5	+4%
4	DEPUTY VICE J: Kaiya Fraser · T: Rebecca Menzies 6.0 ·market 17%	12%	17%	6.0	-29%
5	BLUE PETE J: P J McDonald · T: Michael Appleby 8.5 ·market 12%	9%	12%	8.5	-19%
6	THROUGH THE GATE J: Hector Crouch · T: Harry Eustace 4.3 ·market 23%	7%	23%	4.3	-69%
7	EAGLES ETERNAL J: Mark Winn · T: Jim Goldie 26.0 ·market 4%	5%	4%	26.0	+37%
8	SWEET DISTRACTION J: Oliver Stammers · T: Grant Tuer 41.0 ·market 2%	5%	2%	41.0	+106%
9	SANKHUM GALAXY J: Aiden Brookes · T: Ben Haslam 81.0 ·market 1%	4%	1%	81.0	+240%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

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See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org